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fxak69 pafg 172333 
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
233 PM akst Tue Jan 17 2017

Discussion...
a deep and cold longwave trough over Mainland Alaska will slowly
weaken as it moves north and east through the weekend. A cold air
mass will remain entrenched over the interior and North Slope
through the weekend with only minor warming under limited clouds
and precipitation as a very weak upper level trough moves north
along the alcan border Wednesday night and Thursday.

Aloft a deep cold airmass remains over northern Alaska with 1000
to 500 mb thickness values less than 492 dm found north of the
Alaska Range and 850 mb temperatures between 25 below and 30
below. The center of the cold air mass currently over the western
interior has 1000 to 500 mb thickness values around 486 dm will
slowly drift to the east to be over the north central interior
Thursday after which a slow warm up will start Friday over the
western interior. A weak upper level low trough will move north
along the alcan border Wednesday night and Thursday and will
provide a few degrees of warming east of Fairbanks as mid and
upper level clouds and perhaps a few flurries move through the
area. Models continue to indicate some modest warming at 850 mb
from 25 below to 20 below moving northward into the central and
eastern interior over the weekend along with increased cloud
cover. Expect warmer conditions over the hills and summits in the
interior with only slightly warmer conditions in interior valleys.

On the surface weak high pressure over the central interior will
persist through Thursday and then push slowly into the eastern
interior Friday. Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected
over the West Coast and western interior through Thursday and
mostly clear conditions are expected in the central interior
through Thursday west of Fairbanks. Mostly cloudy skies with
flurries are expected east of Fairbanks Wednesday night and
Thursday. A 986 mb low will push east out of the southern Bering
Sea into Bristol Bay Friday bringing an increase to clouds and
winds and temperatures over the lower yk Delta.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread is limited
in the short range but significant differences are noted beyond
this next weekend.



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Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory for akz204-akz205-akz206-akz207-akz208-
akz217-akz218-akz225-akz226.

Winter Weather Advisory for akz220.

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