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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
101 PM akdt Friday Sep 30 2016

Discussion...
the 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
minimal in the short range and is reasonable in the mid range and
increases significantly in the long range.

Aloft, at 500 hpa a high amplitude ridge currently located along
a Kodiak to Barrow axis will nudge east to be centered along the
alcan border Saturday. A strong shortwave rotating around an 515
dam low over Siberia races rapidly to the north and east and will
be over Cold Bay Saturday morning and will be along a St Lawrence
Island to Nunivak Island Saturday evening. This shortwave combined
with a weak upper level low moving south along the alcan border
will weaken the ridge currently over the interior. A complex upper
level pattern evolves early next week as a more progressive
weather pattern develops over northern Alaska. The dry pattern
over the interior will break down with a more moist southwest flow
developing by the middle of next week. Model guidance continues to
indicate the potential for a strong storm developing over the
central Aleutians.

On the surface, a 981 mb low currently over the central Aleutians
will race rapidly north and west and weaken to around 985 mb as it
passes over the Gulf of Anadyr Saturday evening. The occluded
front ahead of the low will stretch and weaken with rain showers
expected over the West Coast south of the Seward Peninsula
Saturday. Warm and dry conditions will continue in the interior
through early next week. Strong wind headlines are hoisted for the
West Coast as the pressure gradient between high pressure system
in the Yukon and the low moving north into the Bering increases.
Gale fore southeast flow develops tonight and continues Saturday
over Norton Sound and through the Bering Strait. Surge values are
expected to increase to the 1 to 3 feet above normal tides to the
west of Golovin westward through the Bering Strait. Short duration
combined with short fetch will limit high surf potential in these
areas.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...continue to monitor track
and strength of a storm developing the middle of next week.

&&

Hydrology...none.



&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Gale Warning for pkz200-pkz210.
&&

$$

Ccc Sep 16

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