By the Bay Weather

Notes from the EasternUS Wx Confrence (Stacey Stewart + Jessica Williams)

Posted by: weathersp, 2:17 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010

Stacey Stewart (a NHC forecaster of 24 years) earlier today did his presentation today at the EasternUS Wx Confrence in Baltimore (which I attended). He said that the running bet around the office was the first Hurricane by June 30th...

Here are the notes I took.

-Graphical tropical outlook will now include % chances.
-Special TWO will be issued as needed in between normal 6 hour
-Advanced warning system lead time for warnings now 36 hours
-Costs the US taxpayer 5cents a person to run NHC
-Briefly touched on the Katrina controversy with NHC slow willingness to change NHC forecast
-Storm surge dropped from Saffir-Simpson Scale
-His personal prediction for this season.
17 total
12 hurricanes
200 ACE
- Very active early season, mid to late July, late and strong Carib Gulf systems as SST moves West

- Mantra at office... GO SHEAR!

What was interesting was his opinion on SST's and Major Hurricanes, and his point was that, it doesn't matter. As long as the SST's are above 26�C its really up to other environmental factors. He also pointed out that he takes every wave that comes off of Africa will eventually be a CAT 5 if the "Air factors" (not sea) are ideal. You have to subtract from that goal based on the factors against it. Only then can you recalculate its odds of survival.

Jessica Willams's Notes I am creating now (She is a NOAA AOC Hurricane Hunter)

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*Disclaimer* These forecasts and analysis are opinions by Weathersp and are subject to large errors. Please obey to the suggestions and evacuation orders by your local or state law enforcement

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Tropics

Posted by: weathersp, 6:44 PM GMT op 06 juli 2009

Tropical Weather________________________________________________________________________________________________Current Conditions USA________________________________________________________________________________________________ *Disclaimer* These forecasts and analysis are opinions by Weathersp and are subject to large errors. Please obey to the suggestions and evacuation orders by your local or state law enforcement

Updated: 9:58 PM GMT op 11 augustus 2009

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Its quiet.... too quiet (climatologically)

Posted by: weathersp, 8:59 PM GMT op 26 juni 2009

IntroductionHello, All... I have taken a new approach to organization for the Hurricane Season this year which can handle multiple storms / Invests at the same time. 1st is the discussion then the Images section then the next storms discussion/Images. Storms will be placed in the blog as first come first serve. Thanks for visiting..Order of segments in the blog and time since last updated:Breaking Tropics News (If you see BTN on the blog title, this section will be ...

Updated: 6:11 PM GMT op 29 juni 2009

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Swine Flu Information Blog - Wendsday 4/29/09 9:15 AM

Posted by: weathersp, 4:50 PM GMT op 27 april 2009

New News:A 23 month old infant from Texas has died beacuse of the Swine Flu early this morning. This is the first confirmed case resulting in death from swine flu in the United States. Many people have been asking:What is Swine Flu: Swine Flu (H1N1) is known to cause deaths in pigs around the world. The most recent scare was Avian Flu (H5N1) except it from a different part of the world. The Avian Flu is thought to be originated from Pigs who had swine flu (H1N1) in ...

Updated: 1:21 PM GMT op 29 april 2009

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I'm done with TS Fay

Posted by: weathersp, 12:08 AM GMT op 15 augustus 2008

IntroductionHello, All... I have taken a new approach to organization for the Hurricane Season with multiple storms / Invests at the same time. 1st is the discussion then the Images section then the next storms discussion/Images. Storms will be placed in the blog as first come first serve. Thanks for visiting..Order of segments in the blog and time since last updated:Breaking Tropics News (If you see BTN on the blog title, this section will be active): (OFF)TS Fay D...

Updated: 1:48 PM GMT op 20 augustus 2008

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I am 17 years old and have been interested in the weather since I was six. I am in 11th Grade and plan on going to college for meteorology.

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Stewarts Landing Severna Park, MD
Elevation:	77 ft
Temperatuur:	69.6 °F
Dauwpunt:	59.0 °F
Vochtigheid:	69%
Wind:	Rustig
Windstoot:	0.0 mijl/u
Updated: 8:46 PM EDT op 19 juni 2013 Station History