nigel20's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT op 26 maart 2012 | +6 |
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Electrical Engineering student that is interested in weather, especially tropical weather.
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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
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| Elevation: | 731 ft |
| Temperatuur: | 83.0 °F |
| Dauwpunt: | 73.0 °F |
| Vochtigheid: | 71% |
| Wind: | 6.0 mijl/u from the ZZW |
| Windstoot: | 0.0 mijl/u |
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Updated: 12:57 PM EST op 06 februari 2013
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National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BEYOND
15N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 68W AND 69W NEAR THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N60W TO 16N64W
TO 11N70W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME
NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
8:05AM
ISSUED AT: 05:25AM
Date:Tuesday 08th of May 2012
Meteorologist: O. Lovell
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Fair at first becoming increasingly cloudy by late
morning with scattered showers and the isolated
thundershower.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES
Partly cloudy to cloudy with intermittent showers
and isolated thundershowers.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS: Slight
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5m IN OPEN WATERS
Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP.
Piarco: 25 Crown Point: 26
FORECAST MAX. TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 04:54PM
Date:Monday 07th of May 2012
Port of Spain HIGH 5:12a.m. 6:23p.m. LOW 11:50a.m. 11:55p.m.
Scarborough HIGH 4:48a.m. 5:55p.m. LOW 11:27a.m. 11:37p.m.
Date:
TUESDAY 8TH MAY 2012
Time:
6:00 AM
General Situation:
AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR, WARM AND DRY WEATHER...
24hr Forecast:
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR TONIGHT. APART FROM THE SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING INLAND, LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 5-15 KNOTS.
Sea State:
LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY.
Outlook:
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR, WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
Temperatures:
Highs (today)
Lows (tonight)
Coast
32° C
90° F
Coast
27o C
80o F
Inland
36° C
96° F
Inland
23o C
73° F
Hills
27° C
80° F
Hills
20o C
68o F
Tides:
High:
11:03 AM
Low:
6:29 PM
High:
12:41 AM (WED.)
Low:
5:43 AM (WED.)
Sunset :
6:16 PM
Moonset:
7:44 AM
Sunrise:
5:23 AM (WED.)
Moonrise:
9:15 PM
Forecaster:
R. Gordon
May 08, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Weak High Pressure is over the northern Caribbean.
Comment
The High Pressure should remain across the area until Wednesday then weaken on Thursday.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Mainly sunny.
This afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland areas of mainly southern parishes.
Tonight… Generally fair.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston 31 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed/Thur… Mainly sunny mornings. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over hilly and some inland areas during the afternoon.
Fri… Mainly sunny except for isolated showers and thunderstorms over some hilly areas during the afternoon.
Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions with showers across the eastern Caribbean.
ram
Big storm, electricity cuts
•By Matthew Cowen
•Date: Tue, 8 May 2012 13:40:18 -0400
Good afternoon everyone.
Confirming pretty much what was said about Dominica, we had an almighty storm
pass over this morning in the north of the island. Lots of thunder and
lightning, lots of rain and to top it off there are currently around 94000
people without electricity. EDF is doing its best and should have things back
to normal in the next couple of hours.
Link
Link
It seems as if conditions across the eastern Caribbean was worst than I thought
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHWEST JET CORE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN SEVERAL SMALL
TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PUTTING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND FORCE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA SOME DRY AIR
WILL BE IMPORTED FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MIXED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A
DRYING TREND...THAT WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER A NEARLY RAIN FREE MORNING OVER PUERTO RICO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLODED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIER PERIOD THAT THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS
STATIONARY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AS AIR FROM WEST AFRICA BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE WIDER AREA
HOWEVER...TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST THEN ARRIVES AND BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT RAIN NOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/00Z OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT TAF SITES WILL BE LITTLE AFFECTED EXCEPT FOR TJSJ LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR IN TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 09/22Z. LLVL WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SE AND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ABOVE 10 KFT ARE WSW-W INCREASING TO 70 KTS NEAR 40 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDS REMAIN TRANQUIL AT 4 FEET OR LESS...BUT
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY NOW THROUGH TUESDAY TO 6 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 84 / 20 20 40 70
STT 76 86 77 85 / 30 30 50 60
CARIBBEAN SEA..
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 70W IS REMAINING TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINATE E OF 70W AND IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N63W TO 15N65W TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 67W...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 62W-74W
8:05PM
Link
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LOCAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND AROUND SAINT THOMAS. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS OROCOVIS AND CIALES. 09/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
MOISTURE INCREASED TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY RAIN. SOUNDERS AT ISABELA AND SAINT
CROIX REPORTED LESS THAN 1.6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE AROUND
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED IT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SHOWERS
ARE INCREASING OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE BUT SHOULD NOT AGGRAVATE
THE FLOODING ANYMORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT CAN BE CONSIDERED THAT THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT THE HEATING WHICH DROVE THE CONVERGENCE THAT
CAUSED THIS AFTERNOON`S DELUGES AND ALTHOUGH SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEEN FIGURED INTO TOMORROWS FORECAST
AND WILL LEAVE IT AS IS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED MAY 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT
IS TO THEN SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A 60 TO 70 KNOT JET MAX WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THUS INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE ENHANCED
CONVECTION. A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHERE IT
MERGES WITH ANOTHER OLD FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP CREATE A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AGAIN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THE BASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL FAVOR DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND GREATLY ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS MOIST PATTERN IS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THEREFORE
CONSIDERING THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM AND WELL AS FLASH FLOODING...
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WHERE SOIL REMAINS LOOSE AND
SATURATED.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. BTW 09/16Z AND 09/22Z...MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5
KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH HEIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 30 40 70 50
STT 85 76 86 77 / 30 50 60 60
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN AND AROUND JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 14N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDINESS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 08/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 12.32 INCHES...AND THE TOTAL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC WAS 6.11 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N57W...ACROSS ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 12N70W AT THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3.. FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 65W AT 48 HOURS
8:05AM
Lesser Antilles Forecast
Validity: 1000Z WEDNESDAY MAY 9th TO 1000Z THURSDAY 10th MAY 2012 Synopsis:
Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region. Wx: TODAY AND TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy at times with some scattered showers.
Winds:
WIND: ENE - ESE at 10 to 30 km/h
Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.0 - 1.5 metres.
Meteorologist: Brian Murray
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Thursday morning 06:00 l.t., May 10, 2012. Issued: Wednesday May 9, 2012. 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC). Weather:
Today : Partly to mostly cloudy with a few local showers and risk of a thunder or two. Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 25°C
. Sunrise: 06:13 and sunset at 18:51
Winds: Easterly and gentle to fresh; force 3 to 5 ( 12 to 39 km/hr, 7 to 21 knots). A few occasional gusts to strong force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis: A weak disturbance supports an atmospheric condition marginally in favor for cloud and shower development during today. Otherwise, the light breeze of the last days will make way for a stronger wind during the second half of the current week and results in higher wave action mainly across the northern waters
Sea conditions: Moderate with wave heights between 0.5 and 2 meters. The highest waves will be over the northern waters
Special features: N one Outlook until Friday morning: Partly cloudy and possibility of a shower activity Forecaster: Coffie The next weather forecast will be issued on Wednesday at 11:0 0 l.t. (15:00 UTC).
May 09, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…A Weak High Pressure Ridge is over the northwestern Caribbean,including Jamaica.
Comment The High Pressure should remain across the area until Friday when a Trough enters the central Caribbean
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Partly cloudy over eastern parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere This afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Tonight… Becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Thur/Fri… Mainly sunny mornings. Widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Sat… Partly cloudy over northern parishes during the morning. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over mainly inland areas and southern parishes Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions with showers across the eastern Caribbean
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST WED MAY 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST NORTHWEST AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...INDUCING A MOIST SURGE ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS...SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER ACTIVE SPELL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE FA FOR
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR FOR
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH AN ATTEMPT AT MID LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE
NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT THE MUCH "DRIER" SCENARIO...BUT FEEL THAT
THIS MOST LIKELY TRANSLATES INTO STILL RATHER ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS BUSY AS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...MORE LOCALIZED
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET GROUNDS AND ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...AND THE CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MORE
PREVALENT.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 09/23Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITE. AFTER 09/23Z...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AND AROUND TISX AND TKPK FOR TONIGHT
CAUSING POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 86 / 40 70 50 50
STT 76 86 77 85 / 50 60 60 60
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N73W TO A BASE NEAR 11N76W. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN... HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.
8:05PM
Yes, it's the ViV here again!
We're not weather experts but we (my other half and I) so appreciate what you guys do on this site, both here and on Dr. Master's blog. Just wanted to give you our "big ups"!
Thanks again!
Puerto Rico has been thru some flooding in the past few days and it looks like more rain is on tap for us in the next couple of days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST WED MAY 9 2012
.UPDATE...10/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE LLVL WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AND
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER ELEMENTS...MAINLY
TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
Hey VIV. You're most welcome and thank you for visiting our blog as always
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU MAY 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. IN THE MEANTIME...SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING
JET MAXIMA BETWEEN 65 TO 70 KNOTS WILL MOVE THROUGH REGION TODAY
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FIRST
INDUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION. STRONGEST
DIVERGENCE NOW FOCUSED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
ALONG WITH GOOD THERMAL TROUGHING IN UPPER LEVEL WILL HELP CREATE VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO MAXIMIZE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES OR SO TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE TO BE INJECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND ON
FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS AND LOCAL FORCING WILL BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AND POSSIBLY TO A LESSER DEGREE ON FRIDAY. WITH SOIL ALREADY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND FAIRLY SATURATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM RECENT RAINS...ANY ENHANCED
CONVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES AND EXCESSIVE DEBRIS FLOW WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
OVER PUERTO RICO.
ON SATURDAY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED...HOWEVER EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORMATION AND AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCAL STEERING FLOW...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY WITH
LESSER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS TISX AND
TIST WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD TJSJ BY
10/11Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PR THRU 10/14Z AS SHOWERS MOVE
INLAND FROM ESE. SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AFT 10/16Z OVER INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PR PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
BY 10/17Z...LASTING UNTIL 10/22Z. TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT UP THRU 10 KFT...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 60 50 30 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 60 50 40 30
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N63W 15N70W 10N76W. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 20N63W 10N76W LINE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 60W AND 66W FROM VENEZUELA TO 20N. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 20N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 16N69W...AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 74W...AND IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 84W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
8:05AM
ISSUED AT: 05:38AM Date:Thursday 10th of May 2012 Meteorologist: B. Ramdatt
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands Partly cloudy to cloudy with periods of showers or rain and the isolated thundershower.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES Fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers. Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers.
SEAS:
Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5m IN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP. Piarco: 23 Crown Point: 25
FORECAST MAX.
TEMP. Piarco: 30 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM Date:Wednesday 09th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 6:55 a.m. 8:10 p.m. LOW 12:52 a.m. 3:35 p.m. Scarborough HIGH 6:35 a.m. 7:57 p.m. LOW 12:35 a.m. 1:20 p.m. Scarborough HIGH 6:35 a.m. 7:57 p.m. LOW 12:35 a.m. 1:20 p.m.
Public Forecast Northwest Bahamas PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THURSDAY 10TH MAY 2012 GENERAL SITUATION:
A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EXTREME NW BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SOUTH EASTWARDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WEATHER: VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME NW BAHAMAS TODAY; PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWER AVTIVITY TONIGHT
ADVISORY:
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS
SEAS: 2-4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 87°F 31°C VERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 72°F 22°C.
SUNRISE: 6:28 AM MOONSET: 10:51 AM LOW TIDE 6:09 AM/6:14 PM SUNSET : 7:45PM MOONRISE: 12:27 AM FRI HIGH TIDE 12:06 PM
May 10, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…A Trough across Jamaica. Comment Comment… The Trough is expected to linger across the central Caribbean over the next few days
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Partly cloudy over northeastern parishes This afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and western parishes Tonight… Becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston today… 31 degrees Celsius. Montego Bay today… 31 degrees Celsius.
3-DAY FORECAST
(after tomorrow) Fri… Mostly cloudy day. Scattered showers over central and western parishes Sat/Sun… Cloudy day. Windy over southern parishes. Scattered showers over northern and southwestern parishes during the afternoon
Regionally… A Cold Front currently across Florida is expected to move north of Jamaica over the next few days
12:00 PM...DATE...MAY 10, 2012...FORECASTER...JANIS PHILLIPS.
PRESENT WEATHER AT HEWANORRA.....CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS NEARBY. AT GFL CHARLES...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS PRESENT TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...........26 C OR 79 F LAST NIGHT’S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...26 C OR 79 F WIND AT HEWANORRA IS BLOWING FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH OR 20 KM/H.
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDED AT 8:00 AM AT HEWANORRA.....15.4 MM AT GFL CHARLES...10.1 MM TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH THUS FAR AT HEWANORRA......101.5 MM AT GFL CHARLES....139.1 MM WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHTS RECORDED 4 MILES OR 6 KM NORTH OF ST. LUCIA AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHT IN PAST 3 HOURS.....1.3 METRES OR 4.3 FEET. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT IN PAST 6 HOURS.....2.3 METRES OR 7.6 FEET. SUNSET TODAY...6:24 PM.....SUNRISE TOMORROW...5:41 AM.
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued:
12:00 PM on Thursday, May 10, 2012
Residual moisture and some instability associated with a trough system will continue to generate cloudiness, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the region. A gradual decrease in moisture levels will result in a relative improvement in weather conditions by the weekend as a ridge of high pressure will begin to re-establish itself across the area. Relatively light winds will result in slight to moderate sea conditions through Friday with swells peaking near 5 feet. However, an increase in wind speeds is expected to result in an increase in sea swells by the weekend. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to be vigilant
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 PM AST THU MAY 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL MID LEVEL RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK A BIT TO THE WEST. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPELL OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET GROUNDS AND ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MORE PREVALENT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE (ALBEIT MUCH SLOWER THAN
BEFORE) AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY TOO. ONCE AGAIN HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY BOUGHT THE "DRIER" SCENARIO...BUT FEEL THAT THIS MOST
LIKELY WILL TRANSLATE INTO AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS THICK CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK...
AND TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE USVI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 30 20 30
STT 76 86 77 86 / 50 40 30 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N64W TO A BASE OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 70W THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 69W. SEVERAL OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH BARBADOS REPORTING 0.43 INCHES AND TRINIDAD REPORTING 1.02 INCHES AS OF 10/1200 UTC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD HOWEVER IT IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST THU MAY 10 2012
.UPDATE...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS SUGGEST AN SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND
AFFECT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI MAY 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS...AXIS OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH NOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WHILE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. MEANWHILE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BUILDS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
LOCAL FORCING TO PRODUCE MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. SOIL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND...SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS... EXPECT
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS...AND THIS MAY
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO
REMAIN HIGH ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN OVER PUERTO RICO.
ON SATURDAY CONTINUED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST...HOWEVER EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE FORMATION AND LOCATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCAL STEERING WINDS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY... AS THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE
NAVY GLOBAL AEROSOL FORECAST MODEL SHOWED A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH LEADING EDGE NOW NEAR 57
WEST. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS DRIER AIR/SAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... WITH A LOW
LEVEL WIND SURGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS OR UNTIL 11/16Z. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX... TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ. THEN
AFT 11/16Z SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN NW PR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 88 77 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 30 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N62W...ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO A 15N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W... AND EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF 66W. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC WAS 1.02 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3.. FOR EASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W
8:05AM
Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued: 6:00 AM on Friday, May 11, 2012
Residual moisture and some instability associated with a trough system will continue to generate cloudiness, some showers and possible solated thunderstorms across the region. However, a gradual decrease n moisture levels will result in improved weather conditions by tonight as a ridge of high pressure will begin to re-establish itself across the area. Sahara dust moving into the area will also result in a reduction in visibilty during the next 24 hours. An increase in wind speeds is expected to result in an increase in sea swells during the next 24 hours. Small craft operators and sea bathers are advised to exercise caution
Date: FRIDAY 11TH MAY 2012 Time: 6:00 AM
General Situation:
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW MAINTAINS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY.. 24hr Forecast: MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
Winds Sea State: Outlook:
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...INCREASING TO A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Saturday morning 06:00 l.t., May 12, 2012. Issued: Friday May 11, 2012. 05:00 l.t. (09:00 UTC).
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy, temporarily mostly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower, especially during the morning. Tonight through Saturday morning: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few local showers and risk of a thunderstorm.
Forecast high:
32°C and forecast low: 25°C. Sunrise: 06:12 and sunset at 18:52
Winds:
Easterly and gentle to fresh; force 3 to 5 ( 12 to 39 km/hr, 7 to 21 knots). A few occasional gusts to strong force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).
Synopsis:
A weak disturbance still supports an atmospheric condition in favor for cloud formation over the local region. Especially during the morning hours some of these clouds could induce a local shower or thunderstorm over Curaçao and Bonaire. Otherwise, the wind flow will gradually increase during this weekend and results in higher wave action mainly across the northern open waters
Sea conditions:
Moderate with wave heights between 1 and 2 meters. The highest waves will be over the northern open waters
Special features:
N one Outlook until Sunday morning: Partly cloudy with a few isolated showers possible, mainly during the morning hours
May 11, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…A Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica Comment The Trough is expected to linger across Jamaica and the central Caribbean for the next three days as a Frontal Systems moves north of the Caribbean
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning… Partly cloudy over northeastern parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere This afternoon… Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over sections of southern and northwestern parishes. Tonight… Becoming fair Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 31 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Sat/Sun… Partly cloudy morning eastern parishes. Widely scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes thunderstorms over central and western parishes. Mon… Morning shower over eastern parishes. Mostly cloudy afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern and northwestern parishes
Regionally…
A Cold Front currently across the southern tip of Florida is expected to move north of the Caribbean over the next few days
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST FRI MAY 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING...COMBINED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE 11/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -8 AND CAPE OF ALMOST 4K.
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...SOME OF WHICH HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WAS OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS AS WELL
AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
CAPE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...BUT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASING
AS WELL. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINAL AFTER 11/21Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 11/21Z. WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11/23Z BUT MOSTLY ABOVE 4KFT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 88 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 30 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N90W AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO 65W WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THIS AREA N OF 10N W OF 65W REMAINS VERY STABLE AND THAT A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS. SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS MOSTLY CLEAR HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-72W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. E OF 65W...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-18N E OF 63W THIS EVENING. A BULK OF THE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 50W-61W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
8:05PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT MAY 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND DISSIPATES WHILE MOVES TO THE
EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING A LIGHT
AND RELATIVELY MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND BUILDS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST AND DAMPENS OUT TODAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A GENERALLY DRY
TREND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM AROUND 2.0 TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO INDUCE A NEW ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DUR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LCL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS REMAIN PSBL IN
ISOLD-SCT PASSING SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVR ERN THIRD OF PR TO
INCLUDE VCNTY TJNR...TJSJ TIL 12/12Z. AFTN CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO
PRDS OF MVFR/PSBL IFR IN MOD-STG SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 12/17Z-12/22Z AT
TJMZ...TJSJ...AND TJBQ. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. GENERAL LOW/LVL WND FLOW FM SE AT 10-15 KNOTS BLO 15K FT...
BCMG W TO NW AND INCR W/HT ABV WITH MAX WND AROUND 60 KTS BTW 35-40K
FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 85 77 / 30 20 20 20
STT 87 78 86 77 / 30 20 20 20
National Hurricane Center Discussion
CARIBBEAN SEA..
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO 70W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH PATCHES OF HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.
8:05AM
ISSUED AT: 09:40AM Date:Saturday 12th of May 2012
Meteorologist: P. Wellington
FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands: Partly cloudy, hazy and breezy with isolated daytime showers. THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES Generally fair
SEAS:
Normal to Moderate WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS Less than 1.0m
IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:28PM Date:Friday 11th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 8:59am 10:07pm LOW 2:55am 3:27pm Scarborough HIGH 8:52am 10:20pm LOW 3:01am 3:31pm Port of Spain HIGH 8:59am 10:07pm LOW 2:55am 3:27pm Port of Spain HIGH 8:59am 10:07pm LOW 2:55am 3:27pm Scarborough HIGH 8:52am 10:20pm LOW 3:01am 3:31pm
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SATURDAY TH 12 TH MAY 2012 MAY 2012
WARNINGS:
GENERAL SITUATION:
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS WHILE PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND BREEZY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. FAIR AND MILD TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS IN EFFECT WIND: EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEA:
4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OCEAN DAYTIME HIGH: 86F 30C OVERNIGHT LOW: 73F 23C SUNRISE: 6:27AM MOONSET: 12:49PM SUNSET: 7:46PM MOONRISE: 1:48AM SUN LOW TIDE: 8:05AM HIGH TIDE: 2:11PM LOW TIDE: 8:20PM
May 12, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Weak Trough over the island Comment The Trough should move further eastward on Monday as the Cold Front drifts further eastward as well
24-HOUR FORECAST
This morning…Generally fair. Showers over northeastern parishes This afternoon…Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes and inland areas otherwise Tonight… Mostly cloudy Maximum temperatures expected today for Kingston 30 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 31 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST
(starting tomorrow) Sun… Cloudy and windy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over inland areas and western parishes over inland areas and western parishes. Mon…Generally fair morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over northwestern parishes. Windy over southern areas Tue… Generally fair and windy day
Regionally… Cold Front over the Bahamas as a Low Pressure centre is over the southern Caribbean. A Tropical Wave passes over the island tomorrow
rar
Thanks much Grothar. Possibly and I will be keeping my eye on any such disturbance in the Caribbean
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SAT MAY 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY...
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...TO
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND
FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS... FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...NAVY
GLOBAL AEROSOL FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST
PREVAILING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. SOME HAZINESS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF UP TO
5 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 86 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
Good to know that Puerto Rico is finaly getting some dry weather
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