fmhurricane2009's Blog

Ana has little change in strength, Bill and td-4 strengthens, African Wave
Posted by: fmhurricane2009, 12:51 PM GMT op 16 augustus 2009 +0
Ana has not strengthened in the past 24 hours and now is expected to go into the Carribean, The satelite presemtation is poor and they may downgrade this system if current trends continue. She has beem a fighter though so she is down and not out.

If Ana survives I do think that there is still a window of opportunity to strenthen 10-15 MPH, providing it survives all the hostile conditions now.

As of 8:00 AM EDT, TS Ana had winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts, it is racing west @ 20, and a pressure of 1005 mbs. If the storm does get stronger than forecast it could miss the Carribean and go toward FL, It is expected to weaken to a depression as it crosses PR, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Cuba, keep in mind this could rapidly change with the track. If you live in S FL, keep in mind that you are still in the cone and the center could be coming for you DO NOT look at the skinny black line, you could pay for it.

Bill has strengthened slightly over the past few hours and a similarly track for Andrew COULD mean a FL landfall, this is so far out, anything is possible, but Andrew curved to the south. Keep in mind this could take a Hugo track as well. NOTE: Just because I am saying the names of storms DOES NOT mean it is going to get as strong as the storm was
Bill is organizing and it should strengthen to a hurricane today or tomorrow. I am expecting a major hurricane bearing down in or north of the Bahamas. Keep in mind that a lot could change between now and then and this is not set in stone.

As of 5:00 AM EDT, TS Bill had winds of 45 miles per hour, moving W at 13, pressire 1002 mbs. Bill is expected to strengthen during the next 24-48 hours to a hurricane, I expect this to happen between 11p today and 5p on Mon. A major hurricane is a possibility and I want everyone in or near the cone to pay close attention and watch your local Meterologist for more details.

After a surprise blast in intensity and organization, the storm that was bringing rain and wind to S FL/FL keys, has now strenthened further and is TD #4, I am expected this to strengthen 5-10 MPH before hitting between Hernando and Escambia county in Florida, the further west it goes, the stronger it will likely be. The AL/FL border to the mouth of the Suwannee River is under a TS warning. expect winds 40-45 MPH with higher gusts, up to 4-6+ inches of rain and a rise in tide by 1-3 feet.

There is a tropical wave train over Africa and I still put a 30-40% of one of these storms.

Have a nice Sunday Morning!
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