Skyepony's WunderBlog

Great week to you too Finn~ Hope ya found him:)

Dee~ hot it was, spent a good bit of the day in a pool.

Hey Gams~ It was all cake after 21 days, glad your doing it this time. Sit down figure up how much you've saved & splurge a little. Also found some ways of spending some of the extra time I found myself with pampering myself. Skin is looking younger for it.

Sad to say the death count in TX is up to 6, they found the 2 year old in a tree. 4" an hour rain rate. Terrible scene there.

Thanks Rays~ You too:)

Weather is updated. I'll slum the news later.

cmc phase anylisis



Nogaps phase analysis

You too Love!

Dee~ Yeah my grass is getting thirsty again.

Unforchanately the forming low moving down the state has slowed, well for today. Good for NFL but the rain chances here may have dropped along with our humidity. I got 43% with 74º for a dew point & 100.7ºF for a temp. It's hot.. MLB NWS has upped the rain chances & severe weather for tommarrow while backing off a bit for today as that nice line forming down the I-4 corrider is fizzlin. Rain chances are still up for tonight. This low has been a tough one to call right on.

Weather news was pretty boring, need rain for corn. There is 4 people in NY that are missing after yesterday's bad weather & high water, we can hope the best for them. A zoo in Gainsville, TX was evacuated sucsessfully for that flood, forethought & insite as well as really good practice & planning served them very well.

You can click on this Nexsat pic, then click animate.

Hey Gams had .08" here. Got a little band of rain with some ominous clouds, wind & lightning. Kinda intensified as it swept into the Atlantic.

Yeah I think the low & the front are headed on through that way too. Alotta models started calling for the low to push SW into the GOM this afternoon, which would have gave SFL more rain but I think the CMC may have had a fair handle on this one, slipping into the Atlantic. The last 3 hours overall the steering currents shifted back toward the Atlantic.

Nite Gator & everyone..

Patrap~ I hope the weather behaves for the landing. Thanks for leaving the links. I'd like to add the NASA TV page.

73.9º
1015.9↓
Everytime a low comes round my cat starts looking bad, it's already begun. Started the extra meds early this time.

Good Morning Again. The low looks to have gained a little more convection in the last few hours, still got a ways to go. A second circulation maybe trying to get going with the new convection to the SSE of the 1st..just NE of Daytona Beach. When circulations are this weak relocations & more than one circulation are common.

I'm leaning with the gem & cmc at the moment.


Nexsat

Ogal~ Hope you see some today, like yesterday I think I got the better chance.

Sounds like no more attempts to land the shuttle today~ 1st attempt Friday is 2:18 EDT.

Spetrm~ if your winds went from SW to NE that was a circulation moving off shore not on. Thanks for the local conditions update.

Steering currents have weakend, I expect meandering perhaps a little S or SSW as that dry air sinks a little farther down. Nice point Rainman this thing is ate up with dry air, don't expect much for convection explosions while all that is around. Has shook a little of it the last few though.

The MLB NWS take for tommarrow

FRI...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS DRIFT
TO THE SOUTH. GFS TAKES THE LOW ALMOST DUE SOUTH DOWN THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BEFORE IT BECOMES SHEARED APART AND WEAKENS. NAM-WRF
SUGGESTS IT WILL ALSO ACQUIRE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS
MOTION...TRACKING OVER THE GULF STREAM AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH MODELS ARE LIKELY HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO ITS ANOMALOUS NATURE AND
THE FACT THAT IT HAS BOTH TROPICAL AND NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS APPROACH MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO. IN THIS SCENARIO...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH PVA-INDUCED LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

CRISTALDI

Gamma ~ Yeah the low doesn't look like it's gonna be a big threat if it goes S & then east or if it just dies out over the state as the gfs suggests. NWS did mention possible 50mph winds for tommarrow from strong storms, so best to watch it.

The Caribbean blob~ hmmm there is alot helping it explode with convection, there is also talk now at the NHC that there may be a wave embedded in there~ which gives it more a chance. Current steering patterns has it going west into land. But just in the last few hours seeing outflow push north & the ridge (that the blob is blocked by) that extends to Hispanola weakening. Every model sends it west to land ho. Giving it a little more chance than this morning but not as hopeful as most that this will turn out to be anything. 12 hrs to see how these steering currents trend would be helpful & as of yet it lacks consistant spin.

Yeah Nash I think it's helping pull some dry air down on the Bay area along with the whole west side.

That's why it looks so ominious to the S & E of me. By radar looks like a circulculation looks to be about down to the Cape, another up by Volusia/ NFL & the RGB shows the Upper circulation getting swept out to the east..

Now that is certainly colorful Rainman. OUr low looks to be lapping at the gulf stream tonight, with the cool night air aloft it gets full advantage. The MLB radar is best to look at now, lotta lightning on it signaling strengthin. Perhaps I'll be up late enough to to take a last hard look at it & update. 1 thing for sure. Shear is more favorable & growing more so by the hour.

Hey Redhead~ Great weekend to you too!!

Trippy Rainman...Am I in the everglades??? lol oh i's trolling buoys. With those winds, if this persists, in the intrest of the ships I wouldn't be suprised to see it slapped with an invest.

Now for the MLB NWS thoughts~

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...MSAS ANALYZED SFC LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WELL OFFSHORE WITH A
SYMMETRIC GROWTH SPURT OF COLD TOPS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
EAST OF THE SFC LOW POSITION. NOT EXPECTING THE PRESENT SFC LOW TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH INTO FRI WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. TRAINING CELLS OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD CO THIS EVENING
PRODUCED SOME 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL FROM
FLORIDANA BEACH TO SUNNYLAND BEACH ON THE BREVARD COUNTY BARRIER
ISLAND AS WELL AS SOME 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FROM AROUND GRANT TO
BAREFOOT BAY AND SOUTH OF PALM BAY OVER THE MAINLAND.

$$

JP

hhmm~ don't remember JP & well I read the MLB NWS discussions more than some may deam healthy.


Shear

Kinda old (from this morning) but colorful (pink is high, yellow low)


That was a complete miss by quikscat this evening.. & sorry cloudsat fans, nothing yet.

That's about all the update from me tonight..
76.4º
& raining....which (though I didn't post it) JP from MLB NWS said no rain after midnight. Poor ponys will have to finish their hay once the rain quits now.

Good morning everyone:) Well persistance was key & it didn't happen. Even centering on a more westward buoy, nothing reading 15kts out there. Another quickscat miss.