Skyepony's WunderBlog

Hey Skye!

The out of doors is out of order.
You know that is the case when Pottery is complaining about the cold weather!

LOL

Thanks for the storm updates.

47. LakeWorthFinn 8:18 PM GMT on February 11, 2012

48. Skyepony 8:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2012

Wow.. very frightening sounds.

Rob, the cold air in Trinidad came across the ocean from Europe. It's not our fault!

Quoting Bogon:
Rob, the cold air in Trinidad came across the ocean from Europe. It's not our fault!

LOL
Well, you watch...He'll still find a way to blame me. He has a way of twisting things you know! And when he's done tossing strange and wonderful words my way, I'll likely believe it!
:o)

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 14 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Giovanna (945 hPa) located at 19.0S 48.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center in eastern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.4S 45.3E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 21.4S 42.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.8S 39.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.8S 37.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna has made landfall near Andovoranto Monday at about 2200 PM UTC. Gusts has probably exceed 120 km/h in an area from Nosy-Varika in the south to Sainte-Marie island in the north, 150 km/h from Mahanoro in the south to Toamasina in the north and 200 km/h from Vaomandry in the south up to 50 km in the north of Andovoranto.

Coastal flooding have probably occurred in the south of the landfall up to 50 km south of Andovoranto in relationship with the combined effect of a storm surge estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 meters and a more than 12 meter high cyclonic swell. This area has probably undergo within the same time gusts from 200 to 250 km/h

Giovanna should be back over sea in the Mozambique Channel late Tuesday or early Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected by the official RSMC forecast. On and after84 hours system is expected to recurve southwards then southeastwards towards a mid-latitudes trough transiting in its south.


The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 14 2012
===================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (993 hPa) located at 21.1S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in past 6 hours. CIMMS analysis indicate the system lies under an upper ridge axis and in low sheared environment. The system is being steered by southeasterly deep layer mean flow.Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models initially agree on the northwest track before recurving it southwestwards within 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 20.8S 176.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.0S 177.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.5S 178.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #22
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 14 2012
===================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.1S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM in the eastern semi-circle
70 NM in the southwestern quadrant
60 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has increased significantly in past 24 hours. Cloud tops warming past 6 hours. CIMMS analysis indicate the system lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. System is currently being steered to the northwest. Sea surface temperature is around 27-28C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.6 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=3.0, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on DT.

T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models move TC jasmine northwest then recurve it south after 12 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 20.9S 177.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.4S 177.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.3S 178.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Happy Valentines Day Skye and friends!
(a mule not a pony, but it does come with a chocolate heart)

Happy Valentine's Day, Skye!



My wife says I'm a pig on days like today, but hey, I'm entitled a few times every year! :)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1001 hPa) located at 14.7S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.6S 83.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 81.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 74.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

It is difficult to localize the low level circulation center at this time, but a small cluster persists over the estimated center of the system that seems to undergo a moderate east-northeasterly wind shear. 1554 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation is weak and weakly extended.

System might continue to track rapidly then more slowly west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the south.

Available numerical weather prediction models poorly analyze this low and do not forecast significant deepening within the next few days despite rather good environmental conditions in the upper level. Very poor equatorward low level inflow seems to be the missing ingredient for intensification. Otherwise a moderate easterly to north-easterly vertical wind shear persists more or less throughout the forecast period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 14 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 21.3S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 22.5S 41.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.5S 37.5E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.1S 35.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Ex-giovanna seems to go along the western coast of Madagascar by tracking south-westward, but now low level circulation center is difficult to localize (over sea near Andranopasy). Deep convection is developing over sea northwest of the system. System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).

Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west-southwestward track and even a southeastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.

On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.3S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
65 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 6 hours. Convection past 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis. Associated vertical shear remains minimal. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on dT. CI is based on constraints of not being
More than 1.O t-number higher than DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southwest movement with no further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.1S 177.1W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.0S 177.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

Hi everybody!

Go Acorn! :D

I finally see the light at the end of the long and dark tunnel of a winter flu... (thanks) We went out for Valentine's Day dinner :)

Quoting Skyepony:
Genetically modified mosquitoes may soon be released in Florida

..."what are the risks involved with a human getting bitten by a GM mosquito? Nobody really knows..." SCARY.


And the hum-sound video made my blood chill. YIKES! Yet I wanna know more. Lots to research now, this got my attention. And this. Here's the reaction of a dog.

What is the talk about moon's pole shift about? I know earth's poles has shifted in the past and that it's axel is tilting now, though THIS is old news. What do you make of this?

Have you ever watched the new TV-series "Doomsday Preppers"? Very interesting... "25% of Americans have never prepared themselves for any kind of disaster". We WU-Floridians are probably in the 75% :) I also saw on the TV a program on how the world as we know it may end. They presented top 10 reasons for Apocalypse and #1 was a widespread epidemic of some sort. I'm tempted to start prepping, but having guns in the house really puts me off - and maybe life is better in the other dimension...

I think I better go to bed... lol

I'm tempted to start prepping, but having guns in the house really puts me off - and maybe life is better in the other dimension...


Finn is a smart woman.

Heads up for the locals.

An Atlas V launch from Cape Canaveral AFS is scheduled for Thursday evening in a 5:46-6:30pm EST time window. The launch vehicle will have five smoke producing solid rocket boosters and local sunset is 6:11pm EST.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
9:00 AM FST February 16 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 165.0E is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 700 hpa. Td13f lies under 250 hpa ridge axis in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (994 hPa) located at 24.3S 40.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
25 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.9S 40.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 40.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.7S 38.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.2S 41.1E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has slowly organized around the broad low level circulation, but remains fluctuating.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for the deepening of the system within the next 3 days. Indeed, oceanic heat content is sufficient, low level feeding is good equatorward and is progressively improving poleward, upper level wind shear is weak below the upper ridge axis and two good outflow channels are expected to develop north and south of the system. On Sunday and after, system should begin to weaken under the combined effect of the weakening of the equatorward feeding (approaching of the southern coast of Madagascar) and strengthening of the upper level constraint.

System is forecast to move slowly generally southward for the next 48 to 60 hours under the influence of opposite steering flows in mid-troposphere (a ridge in its west and another one in its east). Beyond, system should track eastward, under the probable influence in the mid-troposphere of the westerly mid-latitude circulation, combined with the strengthening of the anticyclonic cell over South Africa and the shifting eastward of the anticyclonic cell located over the Indian ocean.

Most of the members of the last ensemble forecast of the ECMWF (15/1200 PM UTC) are now in agreement with the recurvement eastward in the direction of the south of Madagascar. Actual forecast of the RSMC Réunion is close the ECMWF one (deterministic model).

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.6S 83.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.0S 81.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.1S 80.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.6S 77.7E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.3S 72.8E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The pattern in little central dense overcast has degrade over the past hours, and convection remains fluctuating.

No feeding equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Monsoon inflow should improve slightly at 48 hours.

System is expected to be less or more under the northeasterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge, trough the forecast period.

Intensity has also been revised and lowered.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south.

CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #29
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 22.8S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 24 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the last 24 hours. Low level circulation center partially exposed to the west of the primary convective band past three hours. The system lies to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate. Sea surface temperatures around 26C. System is being steered south southeastwards into an area of increasing shear and
Cooler Sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern less 0.75 degrees, yields a DT of 3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The consensus of global models suggest a south-southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 24.0S 176.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.0S 175.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 26.6S 173.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

13S might have gotten named if Madagascar had the responsibility. They had a few advisories earlier today that had 35-40 knot winds.

Madagascar
----------

System TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
Name NIL
Position NEAR 14.5°S 85.3°E 15/02/2012 0600 UTC
Estimated minimum central Pressure 994 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the center 40 KT (75 KM/H)

Hei Skye .. just stopping by to say, 'HELLO!' while I'm in the neighborhood. ". ))

les Ofieldstream

Well, Skye says no planting or sowing today, but I need to get outside for a bit. Guess I'll weed and prep some beds.

Skye, a little bit of With biodynamics, Chilean vineyard takes organic to an extreme | SmartPlanet leaves me skeptical but I thought you might find it interesting.

BTW today' launch window is 5:46-6:30pm EST (see comment 74).

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.0S 80.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 79.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.2S 77.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.8S 73.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 67.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Overall presentation of the system remain always fluctuating. With the has deterioration of the convection last afternoon, end despite of a new small nightly burst of convection, the system remains into a unfavorable environment. No low level humidity inflow equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Moreover, as the upper level trough located south of the system will move away, the system is still expected to be more or less under a east-north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge.

Monday, upper level conditions could become more conducive for further development with a better divergence south of the system.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south. At the end of the forecast period, the track should take a more southwestwards component as the system should round the subtropical ridge located to its southeast.

Last warning about this system unless re-intensification

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.3S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the western semi-circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 25.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.7S 44.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, micro-waves data at 1722 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambican coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) or quite stationary during the next 12-24 hours then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) towards the Malagasy coasts

However, the last ECMWF ensemble still gives a quite equal weight to the two scenario ... for the moment the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS/UKMO consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond tau60. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.5S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.7S 42.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.6S 43.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.6S 45.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.1S 46.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity is very fluctuating and ASCAT 1832 PM UTC shows a strong winds crown rather far from the center. Last 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath covers partially the circulation but confirms this maximum winds radii at about 75 km away from the center.

Track forecast keeps a large uncertainty despite last numerical weather prediction models become in a better agreement for a globally eastwards motion. Last night upper level constraint (refer to cirrus arc in the west on infrared imagery) is expected to progressively relax, system should therefore intensify again. Within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage. On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Despite last ECMWF numerical weather prediction run shows an oversea track, RSMC's one forecast a landfall in the region of Sainte-Marie Cape and then a weakening to dissipation.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Filling In Depression, Former Giovanna (1001 hPa) located at 24.9S 53.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant with gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.2S 52.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
24 HRS: 22.0S 52.5E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================

On the last cc satellite imagery the low level circulation is completely exposed very far northwest of the convection.The system has weakened very rapidly.

Its steering flow is now located in lower troposphere. The track of the residual low is a north northwestward recurve due to the high subtropicales rebuilding in the south of the system.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very defavourable with a strong westerly then southwesterly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting southeast of madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up, within a broad area of low pressure over the mascarene islands.

This is the last warning about this system unless re-intensification.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 18.9S 65.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40-60 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.1S 64.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 19.9S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 62.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 27.5S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

0441 AM UTC ASCAT swath shows an improving low level circulation within the last 12 hours in the western semi-cercle. TRMM data of 0659 AM UTC suggest that convection is organizing into curved band around the center.

System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestward then southwestward around the highs of low troposphere and finally southward Wednesday evacuating with the trough.

The weakening of the vertical wind shear on the system , and the temporally polar outflow channel building with the approaching upper level trough give a gap of intensification of 24 to 36 hours. However in relationship with a lack of low level inflow (mainly equatorward), intensification of the system may remain laborious.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Final tropical cyclone advisory on this system unless system re-intensifies

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 18.8S 64.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.4S 63.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 20.2S 62.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.4S 62.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.5S 63.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has built over the center of the system since 1400 PM UTC. Hilwa is located below the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge and the upper level wind shear is weak (cf. CIMSS analysis). Lower level environmental conditions are marginal : monsoon feeding remains poor. Sea surface temperature are favorable north of 26s.

Within the next 24 hours, system is expected to recurve south-west and then south southwestward under the steering influence of the mid tropospheric ridge in its east.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions should little change and the intensity of the system should little change. At 36 hours and beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply and system is forecast to weaken rapidly and merge with a polar trough by 7 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 21 2012
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Skye, I'm just in my 40s, and I remember when Bison were still endangered. To have them multiply so, and be used commercially, is just amazing!

I bet those mocs will wear good, too! :)