Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
In the last article I wrote that the extreme events of 2011 were providing us with the opportunity to think about climate and how to cope with a warming world. The U.S. is experiencing an extreme heat event this week (Masters @ WU). This heat wave is the consequence of a strong, stationary high pressure system over the central U.S., and it will move to the east over the next few days. Back on July 14th The Capital Weather Gang did a nice write up on the forecast of the heat wave. At the end of this blog are links to my previous blogs on heat waves and human health.
When thinking about weather, climate, and extreme events an important idea is “persistence.” For example, a heat wave occurs when there are persistent high temperatures. Persistent weather patterns occur when high and low pressure systems get large and stuck; that is, they don’t move. In the Figure below, you need to imagine North America and the United States. There is a high pressure center over the proverbial Heartland. With blue arrows I have drawn the flow of air around the high pressure system, and in this case moist air. There is moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico and, in fact on the date when this was drawn, from the Pacific. This is common in the summer to see both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific as sources of continental moisture.
Figure 1: Schematic of a high pressure system over the central United States in July. While generic, this is drawn to represent some of the specifics of 2011. The green-shaded area is where there have been floods in 2011. The brown-shaded area represents sustained drought in the southern part of the nation.
At the center of this high pressure system there is a suppression of rain, because the air is moving downward. This sets up a situation where the surface heats from the Sun’s energy. There is not much mixing and cooling, because of the suppression of the upward motion that produces rain. Hence, if this high pressure system gets stuck, then there is persistent heat. This is a classic summer heat wave.
Let’s think about it some more. There is lot of moisture being drawn around the edge of the high pressure system, and this moisture contributes to the discomfort of people. People – just a short aside about people: if we think about heat and health, then we are concerned about people’s ability to cool themselves. It is more difficult to cool people when it is humid because sweat does not evaporate. Suppose that in addition to this moisture, there is a region where the ground is soaked with water from flooding. Then on top of already moist air coming from the Gulf, there is local evaporation into the air being warmed by the Sun. If on the interior of the high, where the rain is suppressed, there is hot, wet air, then it becomes dangerous heat.
It’s not easy to derive a number that describes dangerous heat. But in much of the eastern U.S. a number that somehow combines temperature and humidity is useful. Meteorologists often use the heat index. It’s the summer time version of “it’s 98 degrees, but it feels like 105.” For moist climates, the heat index is one version of the “it feels like” temperature. Jeff Masters tells me that in Newton, Iowa yesterday, July 17, 2011, the heat index was 126 degrees F. (see here, and 131 F in Knoxville, Iowa on July 18)
Another measure of heat and humidity is the dew point; that is, the temperature at which dew forms, and effectively limits the nighttime low. The dew points in Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are currently very high and setting records. Here is a map of dew point for July 19, 2011.
Figure 2: Exceptionally high dew points centered on Iowa.
Now if I was a public health official, and I was trying to understand how a warming planet might impact my life, then here is how I would think about it. First, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific are going to be warmer, and hence, there will be more humid air. This will mean, with regard to human health for the central U.S., heat waves will become more dangerous, without necessarily becoming hotter. It is also reasonable to expect heat waves will become more frequent and last longer, because those persistent, stuck high pressure systems are, in part, forced by the higher sea surface temperatures. If I am a public health official here is my algorithm – heat waves are already important to my life, and they are likely to get more dangerous, more frequent, and of longer duration. But by how much? Do I need to know by how much before I decide on a plan for action?
If I think about the air being more humid, then I might expect to see trends in the heat index. I might expect to see trends in dew points, and trends in the nighttime minimum temperatures getting higher. (That’s where a greenhouse effect really matters.) I worry about persistent heat, warm nights, and the inability of people and buildings to cool themselves. I worry about their being dangerous heat in places where people and emergency rooms are not used to dangerous heat – not acclimated to heat – not looking for heat-related illness.
Let’s go back to the figure. Rain is suppressed in the middle of the high pressure system, but around the edge of the high pressure system it will rain; there will be storms. (see Figure 3 at the end) The air around the edge of high is warm and very wet. Wet air is energetic air, and it is reasonable to expect local severe storms. (See Severe Storm on Lake Michigan) And if the high pressure is persistent, stuck, then days of extreme weather are possible. If this pattern sets up, then there is increased likelihood of flooding. If I am that public health official, then I am alerted to the possibility of more extreme weather and the dangers thereof. But, again, can the increase of extreme weather be quantified? Do I need to quantify it before I decide on a plan of action?
Still with the figure - what about that region of extended drought and the heat from the high pressure system? Dehydration becomes a more important issue. As a public health official, I start to see the relation of the heat event to other aspects of the weather, the climate. I see the relation to drought. I see the flood, and it’s relation to the winter snow pack and spring rains.
So what I have presented here is to look at the local mechanisms of the weather – what are the basic underlying physics responsible for hot and cold, wet and dry – for moist air? If I stick to these basic physics, and let the climate model frame the more complex regional and global picture, what can I say about the future? Do I have to have a formal prediction to take action? Here in 2011, I see drought and flood and hot weather and warm oceans that interact together to make a period of sustained, dangerous heat. It does not have to “set a record” to convey the reality of the warming earth. It tells me the type of event that is likely to come more often, of longer duration, and of, perhaps, of greater intensity. If I am a public health planner, then I can know this with some certainty. The question becomes, how do I use that information in my planning?
r
Figure 3: Radar loop showing precipitation around the edge of the large high pressure system in the middle of the continent. July 19, 2011.
Previous Blogs on Heat Waves
Hot in Denver: Heat Waves (1)
Heat Waves (2): Heat and Humans
Heat Waves (3): Role of Global Warming
Reader Comments
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aye aye.
supposively climate change happened to bring the human into North America by a decline in sea level because of glaciation. A mammoth bar-be-que 20,000 years ago prevented famine.
Even if you feel that way, does that mean we should hasten our demise?
So what is your point? The only point I can derive from your statement is that because other species have died, we shouldn't try to fight against global warming? Is that the point?
Just curious, how do you feel about increasing tax rates for the wealthy?
Just because we can't stop it doesn't mean we should hasten its arrival.
No it is directly related. Why have an opinion about anything if whatever happens happens.
just curious, who do you think is better, Kirk or Picard?
also curious if you support taxing a family that combines to make at or over $250,000 annually and not taxing a 100 year old mega energy corporation that reports billions of dollars in profits because of recent government contracts?
Well, in general, I can think of many tax plans that would be fair under either situation. I'm not trying to avoid the question, it's just something I don't know much about.
Monsters And Critics Article...
Here is some food for thought ?
Link
"posted from an ASUS Transformer with Dock (Honeycomb 3.1)~ in testing"
Kirk was quirky, Picard was convincing.
Patrick Stewart attributes his acting career to an English teacher named Cecil Dormand who "put a copy of Shakespeare in my hand [and] said, 'Now get up on your feet and perform'"
I was reading that in the paper the other day. Truly amazing -- most North American cities haven't gotten that cold! And this is a place at 45 S, 400 m (1300') elevation and 60 km (38 miles) from the coast.
The average low in the coldest month here is -3 C / 27 F, so this record low is 23 C / 42 F below the average. This is the sort of departure you'd expect near the Atlantic coast of the US due to the jetstream etc.
Originally Posted by Joe90 View Post
New Zealand has a new official record cold temp:-25.6C, which would be about -14F I think. Also the lowest maximum of -21-6C/ -6F
It was an old one set in 1903. NIWA decided there was no good reason for it to not to be included.
It's in the town of Ranfurly, which is close to Ophir, the previous record holder (-21.8 set in 1994).
Apologies for not posting a link, having trouble on that front.
I had a felling looking at the pattern that started when winter hit the southern Hem this was going to be a record cold winter. 14 F is not all that cold, but considering the oceanic climate type that much of New Zealand has - it is a bit shocking. Also, the record length is so short in many places in the southern Hem. I would not be shocked in another 50 or 150 years of data to see that 14 F fall and a new record below 0 F.
Read more: Link
24 July 2010 Last updated at 04:36 ET
Peru declares emergency over cold weather
By Dan Collyns BBC News, Lima
The Peruvian government has declared a state of emergency in more than half the country due to cold weather.
Most of the areas affected are in the south, where temperatures regularly drop below zero centigrade at this time of year.
However, this time temperatures have dropped to as low as -24C.
The state of emergency means regional authorities can dip into emergency funds to provide medicine, blankets and shelter to those most affected.
Seasonal deaths
The state of emergency was declared in 16 of Peru's 24 regions.
This week Peru's capital, Lima, recorded its lowest temperatures in 46 years at 8C, and the emergency measures apply to several of its outlying districts.
In Peru's hot and humid Amazon region, temperatures dropped as low as 9C. The jungle region has recorded five cold spells this year.
Hundreds of people - nearly half of them very young children - have died of cold-related diseases, such as pneumonia, in Peru's mountainous south where temperatures can plummet at night to -20C.
Poor rural populations living at more than 3,000m above sea level are the most affected.
Doctors say malnutrition, extreme poverty and poor living conditions are major contributing factors to the seasonal deaths.
Brace for more cold weather
2011-07-25 15:48
Roads closed in ECape due to snow
Extremely cold weather conditions were expected to continue across much of the country until at least Wednesday, WeatherSA said as snow blocked some roads in the Eastern Cape.
Forecaster Puseletso Mofokeng said the cut-off low pressure weather system that was moving through the country, heading east, would make Gauteng and Limpopo “rather cold” tomorrow.
“There was light snowfall over high lying Western Cape areas this morning, as well as over the interior of the Eastern Cape and Lesotho,” he said.
“This afternoon conditions will worsen and we are still expecting snowfall over the Eastern Cape tonight.”
Light showers were also expected tonight.
From Wednesday temperatures would rise and in Gauteng things should be back to normal by Thursday.
Unusually, the snowfall was also expected to reach the areas of Piet Retief and Standerton, Mofokeng said.
Earlier, the SABC reported that the N6 road at the Penhoek Pass between Queenstown and Jamestown and the Nico Malan Pass between Seymour and Whittlesea in the Eastern Cape had been closed.
Link
By P Gosselin on 26. Juli 2011
German climate blog Readers Edition here has been keeping an eye on the winter in South America. While much of the news has been buzzing about the “record heat wave” hitting the US last week (a whopping 0.4% of the stations reported record highs! /sarc), Europe and South America for example are being left out in the cold. In South America, dozens of people have died from the bitter cold in 7 countries so far, just when cold snaps were supposed to be getting rarer and the heat waves more frequent. The cold is repeat of last year’s brutal South American winter.
Net income (that is, take home) of $10,680,000,000.
For one quarter.
$117,362,637.36 net per day.
$4,890,109.89 per hour.
$81,501.83 per minute.
$1,358.36 per second.
For just one oil company.
If any of you are still puzzled as to just why Big Energy would stop at nothing to fight changing the current setup, please refer to the numbers above.
Your maths are bad too. F1 is > F2.
My math was fine; my day part was wrong. ;-) The post has been corrected; my point still stands.
You are incorrect again.
Explain this then.
Link
You know you can add a pelton wheel or other force multiplier at various stages to get whatever force you need (just in case practically F1 is not sufficinetly greater than F2).
Perhaps so. I always liked Peltons wheel.
You've gotta be kidding me. Science (engineering) is not your forte'.
Link
Why? What wouldn't work?
That article's online comments:
155 comments Most PopularNewestOldestMost Replied
64users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentladyluck 2 hours ago Report AbuseLook to the money.....this guy is handling 50 Million of our tax dollars . With that kind of money he probably thought he was invincible. Stop the out of control spending before we drive over the cliff (like our esteemed leader tells us)Reply
92users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentBarry 2 hours ago Report AbuseNo, say it ain't so... another scientist lied about Global Warming? I'm shocked.
I remember, as a young kid and teenager, reading all the "scientific" articles about the coming Ice Age, and the global cooling trend that had been happening for decades; a mean global temp drop of almost 3... More2 Replies
110users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down2users disliked this commentJim 2 hours ago Report AbuseGlobal Warming is all about grant money and Federal jobs. No global warming = no grant money & no need for Federal global warming regulators4 Replies
82users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentDAVID 2 hours ago Report Abusethese people should be put in jail for fraud, costing the world billions of dollars.you too AL.2 Replies
79users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentProud American08 2 hours ago Report AbuseWhy are we not seeing this on mainstream news? Hope Al Gore is forced to read this. Bogus crisis seems to be what Liberals thrive on.2 Replies
46users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentJerrry Jerry 2 hours ago Report Abusethe U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement: that says it all. An agency which purports to manage and regulate the ocean's energy! Only a lib would think that is possible. And of course, the libs want to regulate it too - that's their m.o.
That basing facts on... MoreReply
46users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentMad Okie 2 hours ago Report Abusefor more proof of fraud, do a web search for "temperature monitoring stations"Reply
37users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentbarry j. 2 hours ago Report Abuse"The debate is over..." Al GoreReply
62users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentruddawg 2 hours ago Report AbuseScientific research cannot truly be unbiased when the funding for that science is dependent on one outcome. It does not take a 'scientist' to understand that if the funding for your research is coming from pro-AGW sources, your results had better prove their theories. Scientists have to eat too.Reply
75users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down2users disliked this commentCwon1 2 hours ago Report AbuseIf you fake science data for a politcal purpose you should go to jail. Mann and Jones should follow this story.1 Reply
30users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentThinker 2 hours ago Report Abuse"...violation of policy intended to protect scientists from political interference."
The problem with that statement is that this is a politician pretending to be a scientist. When one outright lies, as the Globalwarmists do (evidenced by the leaked EAU emails), one should be fired. This... MoreReply
27users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentJust plain o... 2 hours ago Report Abuse"Ruch also claimed the investigation is being done by criminal investigators with no scientific background, even though the case is an administrative matter."
It could also be said the study was done by political activists with no care for scientific principles, even through the study was a... MoreReply
41users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentJerry 2 hours ago Report AbuseI am here in Ohio...it is 75 now and expected to get to 91....16 degrees in 8 hours ! My god it will be over 200 in one weeks time...lol...Al gore is a goof !1 Reply
37users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down1users disliked this commentCP 2 hours ago Report AbuseMore global warming lies from liberal scientists who JUST want MORE funding and more attention. They just cant keep personal views out of their work. Time for a criminal prosecution for misappropriation of GOVT funds. The first thing to cut in the budget is $50 million from this agency.1 Reply
23users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentnys 2 hours ago Report AbuseIn high seas, storms and such. Most anything will drown. Polar Bears have been known to swim 50,, 60 miles in open seas. But let an ORCA find one and the Orca will play with him and probably kill him eventually. They do with all manner of Seals and Dolphins. They might not eat it cause its not in... MoreReply
53users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down2users disliked this commentchris 3 hours ago Report AbuseDumboturd who couldn't prove global warming had to make up facts to support his crap................Reply
50users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down2users disliked this commentSteven 2 hours ago Report AbuseSo, what ISN'T a hoax in the Obamanation?Reply
21users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentCT 2 hours ago Report AbuseLet's just hope future science will provide the means to learn the truth about our environment without the taint of political influence.Reply
17users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentDeb 59 minutes ago Report AbuseI want my incandescent lightbulbs and I want them now!Reply
17users liked this commentThumbs UpThumbs Down0users disliked this commentNyclposter about an hour ago Report AbuseOf course the Earths climate is changing, its been changing for the past 4.5 billion years. What get me mad is some dope like Gore telling me to drive smaller cars and live in smaller homes while he lives in a 22,000 foot mansion and jets around the world in his jet. Raising my taxes will not solve... MoreReply
Nice try, but no. Not even close. Monnett and Gleason published a peer-reviewed article in 2004 talking about things they'd noticed in the Arctic, including polar bears who appeared to have drowned. Moneyed interests who want to deny climate change and drill in the Arctic did what they often do: moaned and complained about the article. And since they've given up on trying to counter it scientifically--because they can't--they've opted to go the political route. You know, throw around some Big Energy dollars, make some threats, and smear a good scientist's name.
(What sickens me is that this is the type of witch-hunt we all came to expect from the Bush White House, but many of us were hoping for so much more from the current occupant, despite the fact that he's turning out to be a moderate conservative.)
At any rate, Monnett has not even been told what he's being accused of aside from "integrity issues". That's like writing a guy a ticket for "driving issues". Some in power are seeking both Monnett's reinstatement along and a public apology from the inspector general. My feeling is he will get it.
It's colloquial... get a grip or I'll be forced to reciprocate.
By Amina Khan, Los Angeles Times
July 28, 2011
Turns out the moon's not the Earth's only traveling companion. Space scientists have discovered an asteroid that's been following our fair planet for thousands of years, at least — and there may be many more where it came from, according to a recent study.
If other so-called Trojan asteroids are found, they could turn out to be ideal candidates for a visit from astronauts, something NASA hopes will be possible within the next 15 years.
Most of the asteroids in the solar system populate the belt of rocky debris between Mars and Jupiter. But planets can pull asteroids into their orbits, too. More than 4,000 Trojan asteroids have been discovered around the gas giant Jupiter, along with a few around Neptune and Mars.
But no such asteroid had ever been found near Earth. That led some scientists to believe that our planet lacked an entourage.
But others proposed a different explanation: Perhaps there were Trojan asteroids in Earth's orbit around the sun, but they were simply hidden from view.
The problem was this: In order for an asteroid to attain a stable position in a planet's orbit, it must find the spot where the gravitational pull of the planet and that of the sun cancel each other out. Two of these spots, called Lagrangian points, lie along a planet's orbit — one ahead of the planet and one behind it. Drawing straight lines between the Earth, the sun and a Lagrangian point produces a triangle whose sides are equal in length. An asteroid there would hover in the sky at a 60-degree angle from the sun.
Any object that close to the sun would be difficult to see from Earth because it would be overhead mostly during broad daylight, as invisible as the stars.
But Martin Connors, a space scientist at Athabasca University in Alberta, Canada, had an idea. Maybe NASA's Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer, which aims its lens 90 degrees away from the sun, would be able to pick up an oddball Trojan with an eccentric orbit.
Indeed it did. Connors found one candidate whose strange path over six days in late 2010 seemed to match the unevenly elongated orbit typical of Trojans. His team confirmed the Trojan's identity by spotting it a few months later with another telescope in Hawaii.
"This is pretty cool," said Amy Mainzer, a scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory who wasn't involved in the study, which was published online Wednesday by the journal Nature. "It's a new class of near-Earth object that's been hypothesized to exist."
And if more Trojan asteroids can be found, researchers said, they could be ideal for astronaut visits and the mining of precious resources. (This particular asteroid is too tilted with respect to the solar system to make a good candidate, Mainzer said.)
Stuffed into a forgotten closet in the sky, such relics could also give scientists a fresh glimpse into the early formation of the solar system.
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-trojan -asteroid-20110728,0,284121.story
Link
I'll hold off for now, but I'll give you my take on the "science" in the article this afternoon.
Link
http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/status-table.html
Did you know they harvest Polar Bears ? I wonder what Russia does ?
Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Canada, the
Government of Nunavut, and the Government of Greenland for the
Conservation and Management of Polar Bear Populations
Don't show Neo this
http://www.adn.com/2011/07/28/1989382/arctic-scie ntist-under-investigation.html
I wouldn't say one person "makes up" the panel. But I agree that no industry people should ever be allowed to be IPCC lead authors, period. The group needs to differentiate itself from the numerous fossil fuel industry-funded and fronted denialist groups, and stooping to their level is never a good idea.
It is an article about a peer reviewed published paper. What is the question?
Here it is if you can get to it. It is either very busy, or being intentionally bogged down.
http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/
A discussion here~
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/07/our-refutatio n-of-dessler-2010-is-accepted-for-publication/
L8R
Why's that? Oh, you mean because I already saw it and responded to in in #985? Got it...
The IPCC is "conflict of interest policy free" and a vast majority of those with defined and admitted conflict are in the Big Green industry and directly submitting policy influencing documentation to bolster their business interests. Fact, not like your Hypocrisy!
Sad for certain.
Plenty more where this came from !
Conflict of interest guidelines for the IPCC
but the unions of tenured, grant peddling university professors aren't an industry?
I guess not, when they don't have to satisfy investors with dividends. All they have to do is publish words that suit they who grant the funds.
The "Green" movement is a Big Union stew.
Industry indeed.
Sorry, I was not logged in and could not see it initially
Out >>>>
JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — A federal wildlife biologist whose observation in 2004 of presumably drowned polar bears in the Arctic helped to galvanize the global warming movement has been placed on administrative leave and is being investigated for scientific misconduct, possibly over the veracity of that article.
Charles Monnett, an Anchorage-based scientist with the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, or BOEMRE, was told July 18 that he was being put on leave, pending results of an investigation into "integrity issues." But he has not yet been informed by the inspector general's office of specific charges or questions related to the scientific integrity of his work, said Jeff Ruch, executive director of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility.
By LESLIE KAUFMAN
Published: July 27, 2011
With the nation’s attention diverted by the drama over the debt ceiling, Republicans in the House of Representatives are loading up an appropriations bill with 39 ways — and counting — to significantly curtail environmental regulation.
TThe fossil fuel industry makes hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit every minute of every hour of every day. Does anyone truly believe that a corrupt scientist--that is, one willing to trade on his credibility, experience, and education--would grovel after those oh-so-lucrative grants when he could earn 20 times as much working the denialist circuit?
Puh-leez...
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