By The Numbers: 2010/09/29
- With today's designation (and rapid dissipation) of the very-wet Nicole as a tropical storm, the 2010 hurricane season stands at a pretty remarkable 14-7-5. To put that into perspective, that's just three named storms behind what 2005 (which ended with 27) had on this date, three behind 1933 (21), and just one behind 1995 (20). Finishing up the season at the same distance behind those years would give us, respectively, 24, 18, or 19 named storms. That's assuming a direct linear comparison, of course; if we use to-date ratios instead, we'll finish with--again respectively--22.24, 17.29, or 18.67 named storms. It's safe to say, then, we should end the season with at the very least 17 named storms--and seeing as many as 22 is not out of the question.
- Further proof that this should be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons ever: 2010 is eight named storms ahead of where 2009--a very anemic year tropical cyclone-wise--was on this date. Yet even 2009 managed to squeeze out three more named storms after this date, and even tying that meager amount would give 2010 a total of 17 named storms...a very busy season indeed.
- With Nicole, that's eight named storms for the month of September, tying a record set in 2002 and met again in 2007. (As noted here previously, 2002 had its eighth named September storm by the 21st, and that was it for the season; an El Niño kicked in after that. 2007 had two more storms after September, one in October and another in December.)
- Combining August's four named storms with September's eight makes for--obviously--12 named storms in the two month period, a very rare event. For example, in the past 15 seasons (that is, during the current "active" period that begain in 1995) the average August/September tally has been 8.1, with a high of eleven (in 2000, 2002, and 2004) and a low of one (in 1997). Even 2005--the busiest season on record, and one which ended with 27 named storms--had but ten over August and September.
- Over the past 15 seasons, five have seen more storms form in October than in September: 1995 (3 and 4), 1996 (2/3), 1997 (1/2), 2001 (4/5), and 2005 (5/6). Over that same span, two seasons have seen the same number of storms in each month: 1999 with three apiece, and 2009, with two. The remaining years had, as climatology dictates, more September storms than October storms.
- With Nicole, 2010 has seen the formation of 11 named storms in a 39-day period, or one every 3.55 days, or about every 85 hours, 5 minutes, and 30 seconds (how's that for a stat?)
- With Matthew, 2010 saw the formation of ten named storms in a 33-day span (that's one every 3.3 days, or roughly every 79 hours, 12 minutes). That beats the oft-touted 1995 "hyperactive" span of ten storms in 35 days by a full two days.
- Beginning with Danielle's formation on August 22nd, there has been a named storm active on all but four days of the aforementioned 39 days. (The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories on 37 of those same 39, including those for tropical depressions and post- or extra-tropical systems.)
- Since our last update, Lisa and Matthew, and Nicole have exited the stage. Here are their final numbers:
LISA
ACE: 3.6175
HDP: 0.9125
Initial TWO: 5AM EDT 2010/09/21
Final Tropical TWO: 11PM EDT 2010/09/25
TWOs as TS: 16 (96 HOURS / 4.0 days)
TWOs as HU: 2 (12 HOURS / 0.5 days)
TWOs as MH: 0
Total TWOs: 13 (78 hours / 3.25 days)
MATTHEW
ACE: 1.3750
HDP: 0.0
Initial TWO: 5AM EDT 2010/09/23
Final Tropical TWO: 11AM EDT 2010/09/25
TWOs as TS: 8 (48 HOURS / 2.0 days)
TWOs as HU: 0
TWOs as MH: 0
Total TWOs: 8 (48 hours / 2.0 days)
NICOLE
ACE: 0.1225
HDP: 0.0
Initial TWO: 11AM EDT 2010/09/29
Final Tropical TWO: 11AM EDT 2010/09/29
TWOs as TS: 1 (6 HOURS / 0.25 days)
TWOs as HU: 0
TWOs as MH: 0
Total TWOs: 1 (6 hours / 0.25 days)
- 2010 Season rundown (June 1st through current):
Number of days total: 120
Number of days with at least one active named storm: 48 (40.0% of total)
Number of days with at least one storm at hurricane status: 28 (23.3%)
Number of days with at least one storm at major hurricane status: 11 (9.2%)
Number of days with multiple active named storms: 23 (19.2%)
Number of days with multiple storms at hurricane status: 6 (5.0%)
Number of days with multiple storms at major hurricane status: 2 (1.7%)
- When Lisa suddenly and unexpectedly became a hurricane on the evening of the 24th, there was some discussion as to whether that was the farthest east a storm had ever reached that status. That talk quickly vanished when it was found that a hurricane becoming so that far east wasn't unprecedented at all. For the record, the storm that formed nearest to the Cape Verde Islands actually became a hurricane while in the archipelago: 1892's Hurricane Five. And 1948's Hurricane Six became a hurricane just south of the islands. (Of course, the all-time leader for easternmost hurricane was 2005's Vince, while the farthest east Atlantic tropical cyclone to form was 1973's Christine, which became a TD at 14.0W...that is, while still over Africa.
Thanks for stopping by, visitor 
!
--Jim Pettit (aka Neapolitan)
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Updated: 1:21 PM GMT op 30 september 2010
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By The Numbers: 2010/09/22
- Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.
- With Lisa, we now have seen six September storms (and there's a likely-busy eight days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which each saw eight. However, while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their attendant Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. In other words, there seems to be--at least on the surface--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.
- Today is the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one storm going, and seven of those saw three active storms. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.
- Since our last update, both Julia and Igor have exited the stage. Here are their final numbers:
IGOR
ACE: 42.445 (33.7% of season total)
HDP: 40.1925
Highest Daily ACE: 6.51 ON 2010/09/13
Initial TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/08
Final Tropical TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/21
TWOs as TS: 11 (66 HOURS / 2.75 days)
TWOs as HU: 39 (234 HOURS / 9.75 days)
TWOs as MH: 20 (120 HOURS / 5.0 days)
Total TWOs: 50 (300 HOURS / 12.5 days)
JULIA
ACE: 14.1825 (11.5% of season total)
HDP: 11.345
Highest Daily ACE: 4.855 ON 2010/09/15
Initial TWO: 11PM EDT 2010/09/12
Final Tropical TWO: 5AM EDT 2010/09/20
TWOs as TS: 15 (90 HOURS / 3.75 days)
TWOs as HU: 15 (90 HOURS / 3.75 days)
TWOs as MH: 4 (24 HOURS / 1.0 days)
Total TWOs: 30 (180 HOURS / 7.5 days)
Igor's ACE of 42.445 makes him the most energetic storm in the Atlantic since 2004's ACE-monster Hurricane Ivan. Igor's ACE surpassed both Hurricane Wilma--2005's most powerful storm--and 2007's Hurricane Dean. Igor ranks among the top 2% of all Atlantic storms for ACE. (For the record, the Atlantic ACE title still belongs to 1899's San Ciriaco Hurricane, which lasted 28 days and racked up a very impressive estimated ACE of 73.57.)
- Because of Igor and Julia's simultaneous stint as Category 4 storms, September 15th saw 11.22 ACE units amassed. That means that single day accounted for 11.5% of the year's total ACE up to that date. In fact, from September 13 through September 17, 45.6725 ACE units were gathered, or more than 39% of the year's total ACE in just that one five-day span.
- This season's ACE, which stands now at 126.435, is still almost 100 units shy of what was gathered in 1995 or 2004, and it's barely over half of what was accumulated in 2005. While it's not likely this season will catch any of those three years, it'll almost certainly meet or exceed most other years since 1995, including the "hyperactive" seasons of 1996, 1998, 1998, and 2003.
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Thanks for stopping by, visitor !
--Jim Pettit (aka Neapolitan)
By The Numbers: 2010/09/19
A few highlights from the day:
- As of today, Igor will go down in the books as the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, with a gale diameter of 633 miles/1,018 km. Igor takes the number one spot from 1966's Faith, which had a gale diameter of 605 miles/973 km.
- As of today's 5pm TWO, Igor's ACE is 39.4875, which is--perhaps incredibly--higher than that of any storm in the Atlantic since 2004's Hurricane Ivan. ACE-wise, Igor has been a more energetic storm than even 2005's record-breaking monster Hurricane Wilma and 2008's very destructive Hurricane Ike. (Ivan's ACE was an amazing 70.4, a number which, given that the Cape Verde season is winding down, is highly unlikely to be surpassed this year.)
- Perhaps even more astonishing is that Igor's ACE to-date is higher than that for the entire Eastern Pacific this season. (The EPac has seen six named storms, including Cat 5 Celia). And Igor is closing in on equaling or surpassing the current ACE for the entire Western North Pacific, as well, which has seen 11 named storms (including the adorably-named Lionrock); if Igor can hold on for a few more days, he'll likely reach that number, as well.
- Karl left us since our last blog post, so here's his post-mortem:
ACE: 5.8
HDP: 4.48
Initial TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/14
Final TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/17
TWOs as TS: 7 (42 HOURS / 1.75 DAYS)
TWOs as HU: 6 (36 HOURS / 1.5 DAYS)
TWOs as MH: 2 (12 HOURS / 0.5 DAYS)
Total TWOs: 13 (78 hours / 3.25 days)
- Today marks our eighth consecutive day with multiple named systems in existence, and the 18th of the season. Overall, there have been six days this season with multiple active hurricanes, and two days with multiple major hurricanes. Since August 22, there has only been one day with no named storms in existence (September 5).
- If today ends without the birth of Lisa--which, given the state of 94L, isn't guaranteed--it will mark the longest gap between named storms in almost a month since Danielle came into being. Previous to today, no more than four full days since August 22 have gone by without the birth of a named storm.
Thanks for reading.
--Jim Pettit (Neapolitan)
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Updated: 1:13 AM GMT op 20 september 2010
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By The Numbers: 2010/09/17
A few highlights from the day:
- In just the past seven days, we've gathered as much ACE as the entire 2009 season, and in just the past five days, we've gathered as much ACE as all of 1997.
- 26 days ago, the seasonal storm count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE was barely over nine. In those 26 days since, we've gone 8-5-5, and gathered nearly 106 ACE units. That is, quite literally, an entire average season's worth of ACE, nearly an entire average year's worth of both tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and double an average season's worth of major hurricanes. And, in case I need to remind you, we're only a week beyond the climatological peak, waters are at near-record high temps (especially in the western Caribbean, where they remain untouched), and atmospheric conditions are still more than primed for major action.
- It wasn't until 83 days into the season that ACE hit 10. Reaching 20 took four more days. 30 followed the next day, then 40, 50, and 60 at intervals of two days apiece after that. Nine days passed before ACE reached 70, but then 80 came two days later, followed by 90, 100, and 110, each at a one-day interval.
ACE by Year
ACE by Day
ACE Accumulation
- Much is often made about the hyperactive 35-day 1998 period in which ten storms were named (from Bonnie to Karl), and rightly so: that's a lot of storms. But that span wasn't nearly as powerful as this year's eight-storm, 27-day span; the '98 run saw but a single major hurricane (though to be fair, that was the devastating Cat 4 Georges).
- As of the 5 PM TWO, Hurricane Igor has racked up an ACE of 33.72. That makes him more energetic ACE-wise than any 2005 storm but Wilma, and more energetic than any storm since 2004's ACE monster Ivan—with 70.4!—except for Wilma, 2008's Ike, and 2007's Dean. Dean's ACE is only 1.5 points higher, so it's a sure bet Igor will surpass his by tomorrow morning. Ike and Wilma, however, are tied with 39 apiece, and now that Igor's struggling a bit, he may have a hard time reaching them. As a major storm, that would only take a day or less, but as a Cat 1 or 2, or especially as a tropical storm, 39 may be too far out of reach. We'll see.
- As part of my ongoing comparison of 2010 with anomalous 2005, a few other points: I'd previously mentioned that this year's Alex was more energetic ACE-wise than 17 of 2005's 27 storms. Karl's ACE currently stands at 5.8725, meaning that he's already proven more energetic than 13 of 2005's storms (he's higher than Zeta and lower than Beta at the moment). Not sure whether he'll be able to contribute much more to the seasonal total; as I write this, he's down to a 60-knot tropical storm, and disintegrating rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico, and there may not be enough of him left at the next TWO to count.
- Speaking of Karl: he's the only major hurricane ever known to be in the Bay of Campeche. That's pretty remarkable, when you think about it: that same area has been traversed by, or has been the birthplace of, literally dozens and dozens of tropical cyclones. But because of that orographic wet-blanket the Yucatan Peninsula, majors have obviously had a very difficult time existing there. However, Karl pulled it off, and I suspect that he will be studied for years because of that. (And, yes, it's possible other similar storms could have been missed in the pre-satellite era; over the next few days or weeks, researchers and historians may be able to shed more light on that for us.)
Back later. Thanks for reading, and please feel free to comment...
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Updated: 12:44 AM GMT op 18 september 2010
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