NICycloneChaser's WunderBlog
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Posted by: NICycloneChaser, 3:45 PM GMT op 30 mei 2011 +0
It's been a long winter for tropical fanatics like myself, but we're now just a day and a half away from the beginning of the 2011 Hurricane Season! So, what do the next six months have in store for us? Let's start with the obvious, the SSTs in the Atlantic.







So, as would be expected with the second year of the La Nina, SST anomalies are behind last year, though last year's were near record. However, SSTs are significantly higher at this point in time than they were in 2008, one of our closest analogue years. Another point displayed by the above images is that waters in the Pacific are much cooler now than at the same time in 2008, which would suggest that we have a more significant La Nina.

If we look at the current shear in the Caribbean, where we tend to see early season development, we see that shear is currently higher in the Caribbean than at the same time in 2008, however shear is forecast to relax over the next week as the jetstream moves northwards.







The Saharan Air Layer is fairly weak in the Gulf of Mexico and non-existent in the Caribbean at this time, so this shouldn't cause much problems for early-season development.

The current La Nina forecasts continue to suggest that we will remain in neutral ENSO conditions throughout the season, in only slight warm-neutral. The forecasts actually suggest that at most we will reach a weak El Nino over this winter, before heading back towards another La Nina. But we'll worry about that this time next year...

I had been thinking just a week or so ago of numbers of around 15 storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 majors. However, with the latest trends in SSTs, I see little reason as to why this season would be any less active than 2008. My forecast is therefor 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the south-west Caribbean is doing its best to get us up and running with the season. We have an area of interest which most models continue to forecast developing into a fairly broad, closed low pressure area, suggesting a depression/storm could form. The models keep it around the south-west Caribbean for the next week or so, before taking it a variety of directions, with few, if any models, showing consistency in either strength or track. We'll have a better idea of these things once it starts to form in the next 24-48 hours. I'll have more on this tomorrow.

Thanks for reading!
Updated: 3:48 PM GMT op 30 mei 2011   Permalink | A A A
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Tropical Storm Tomas
Posted by: NICycloneChaser, 10:04 PM GMT op 02 november 2010 +0
Good evening!So, the Hurricane Hunters were back in Tomas again this afternoon, and they found that, contrary to the forecast, Tomas had in fact weakened further, now with max sustained winds of 40mph. The aircraft found an elongated circulation, probably a result of dry air intrusion and moderate/strong wind shear. However, Tomas has been firing up a lot of convection around himself throughout the day, and is a large storm. Wind shear is forecast to continue to rel...
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TD Lisa/Fifteen; The Return of Julia?
Posted by: NICycloneChaser, 6:35 PM GMT op 23 september 2010 +0
Good afternoon! (Well, evening over here in Northern Ireland...)This is my first blog post. I'm hoping to have a new one most days.LisaOk, so let's start with Tropical Depression Lisa, the lonely little cyclone in the far eastern Atlantic. The steering currents around Lisa have been pretty crazy since she was born, and have kept her hovering just to the north-west of the Cape Verde Islands for the last few days. Wind shear is expected to rise significantly in the ne...
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