Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra
Paula weakens, mostly a rain threat; Mischief possible in the Caribbean next week
Posted by: Levi32, 4:26 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010 +2
If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



In the video when I was talking about hurricane-force gusts in Cuba I was meaning to say "50kt gusts".

Paula has weakened considerably since yesterday. The falling off was a bit greater than I expected. Land interaction with Cuba by such a small storm can be partially blamed for this, and it is possible that the concentric eyewalls observed at one point by the recon yesterday also contributed to making the storm more vulnerable to the wind shear that was already over it. However, the storm's structure remains rather impressive, and strong gusts may continue to rack Cuba's coastline today along with heavy rains.

My take on the track yesterday was to skirt NW Cuba and then head out through the Florida Straights. Paula is indeed farther north than the NHC has had it in preceding forecasts, and they have continually had to adjust north. However, they still have the remains getting stuck and curving back down into the Caribbean as the remnant low dissipates. It will be interesting to see just how much of the storm escapes, as I think at least a portion of it will. At this point since the storm has weakened enough, we may see a decoupling later today with the surface center getting pushed down into Cuba while the mid-level center takes off to the ENE with the deep-layer flow. About half of the models think that the surface center will go out as well, but I can see how it may get left behind if the system decouples, which is quite possible. However, the main energy of the system will be leaving. At this point, I don't believe the remnants of Paula will be any significant threat for redevelopment in the Caribbean.

What may be more of a threat in the Caribbean is the storm that the GFS and NOGAPS develop later next week which would be named Richard, coming up out of the monsoon trough north of Panama and threatening Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. This could make sense given the recent negative burst in the SOI, which will be having implications in the Caribbean in 5-10 days in the form of westerlies coming out of the Pacific and creating convergence. The models are a little more bullish on this system than most of our recent storms, and such a development could have the potential to be a potent hurricane in the NW Caribbean. We will have to continue to keep an eye on this general area for mischief over the next couple of weeks. These land areas are still going to be threatened, as we have seen with Paula.

We shall see what happens!

Hurricane Paula Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Hurricane Paula Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):
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1. cre13 4:38 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
thanks Levi!
Member Since: 5 augustus 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
2. SunnyDaysFla 4:47 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
Thank you Levi, I always appreciate seeing and reading your take on the current and future systems.
Member Since: 19 september 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
3. InTheCone 4:51 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
Thanks for the update!
Member Since: 1 september 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
4. Levi32 5:03 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
Thanks all.

12z GFS is sure to concern some people.

Day 8:

Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462
5. Mia4me 5:13 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
1st time viewer...very nice, well explained, and concise info thank you! I will be back, keep up the good work!

alex
Member Since: 20 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
7. PSLFLCaneVet 5:20 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    


Thanks, Levi!
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8. Levi32 7:23 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
12z and 18z model cycles have suddenly come into good agreement on Paula going through the Florida Straights and on out to the ENE, in agreement with my track from yesterday, supporting the idea that this will not get stuck in the Caribbean.

Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462
9. Levi32 10:35 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
18z GFS Day 7:

Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462
10. Levi32 11:46 PM GMT op 14 oktober 2010    
Paula still has a core intact and is on track to clear Cuba by the time she makes it to Miami's longitude, if the current heading holds. This is not getting stuck in the Caribbean.

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About Levi32
Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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