The new NHC director is Bill Read
NOAA announced today that the new director of the National Hurricane Center will be Bill Read, 58, who has served as the center's acting deputy director since August 2007. Previously, he served as director of Houston's National Weather Service office, a post he took in 1992. Bill was called in to work at NHC three times between 1992 and 2005 to help out with hurricane emergencies. Prior to his job in Houston, Bill served in the U.S. Navy, where his duties included an assignment as an on-board meteorologist with the Hurricane Hunters. He began his career in 1977 with the National Weather Service test and evaluation division in Sterling, VA; developed his forecasting skills in Fort Worth and San Antonio, Texas; and, served as severe thunderstorm and flash flood program leader at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver Spring, MD.
I got a chance to speak with Bill this week at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans. I asked him what his focus would be as director of NHC, and he promised to continue the main themes of Max Mayfield, emphasizing hurricane preparedness and education. I asked him what we should do with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes as Category 1 through 5, based on their wind speeds. This scale has obvious limitations, as proved when a weakening Category 3 Hurricane Katrina brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 5 storm to the shore. Bill responded that we absolutely had to keep the Saffir-Simpson scale, since it has proved its usefulness in many situations. Discarding it would cause confusion. He promised, however, to explore ways to improve public outreach efforts and educate people on the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I agree with both of these points. Finally, I asked him how he was progressing with the technical aspect of issuing hurricane forecasts. His predecessor, Bill Proenza, was criticized by his staff for not taking an interest in forecasting. Bill Read responded that he was involved in forecasting for all of the tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred in 2007, after his August arrival at the center. In particular, he emphasized how he happened to be on duty the night Hurricane Humberto blew into a hurricane just 18 hours after it formed as a tropical depression. He's definitely experienced some time on the hot seat with that storm! All in all, my impression is that the new director will fit in much better at NHC than Bill Proenza did, since Read is less of an outsider. He is a good listener, easy to talk to, and a good communicator, traits essential for a successful NHC director. In the coming months, we'll have a chance to see how the new director fits. I'm optimistic that Bill can become a top-notch NHC director, and wish him well in his mission.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 — Blog Index
greetings to everyone =D
Southwest Indian Ocean
Issued 1400 UTC 27 Jan 2008 by W456
Tropical Cyclone Fame (08R) makes landfall on Northeast Madagascar. The eye of Fame came ashore about 1 hour ago and is now located near 16.4S-44.9E moving towards the south-southeast. Estimated surface winds are now 80 knots and minimum central pressure is estimated to be near 966 mb. Sea surface temperatures prior to landfall were 32C and wind shear is anticyclonic below 5 knots.
Visible imagery through 1330 UTC showed the eye of Fame made landfall around 1300 UTC with Dvorak estimated winds of 90 knots and a minimum central pressure of 954 mb*. Since then, the winds have estimated to decrease slightly to 83 knots based multiplatform satellite winds. These winds exist within an 18 nmi radius tight core around the eye. The nearest station, 67037, located south of the landfall point at 16.6S-44.4E did not report any winds but reported a pressure of 982.4 mb. Overall, the system remains well define with a long outflow jet extending to its north and west. The warm-core and upper level anticyclone remain intact at this moment. Fame will dump up to 10 inches of rain according TRMM measurements. Structural damage should be minimal to moderate due to the sparsely populated region and the fact that the most intense winds are confined to a small area. Global models take this system across Madagascar, emerging back over water in about 72 hrs. By then, most models indicate that 09R/14S will merge into the remnants and deepen into a significant system in the South Indian Ocean.
by W456
*
Eye Pattern at 1300 UTC
Surrounding Gray Shade Code - W - White - E 6.0
Infrared Eye Adjustment - Eye Temperature was B - Black and Surrounding Shade was W - White - -1.0
E 6.0 - EADJ 1.0 = 5.0 = 90 knots, 954 mb.
JTWC Stats:
1200 UTC 13SFAME.80kts-963mb-155S-443E
Frances was certainly one hell of a beast when she came across central Florida, wouldn't anyone agree?
I dont live in the US but I wud say from Media reports and tracking the cumbersome giant...i wud agree.
www.wunderground.com/blog/LowSnow/comment.html?entrynum=0&tstamp=200712
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....
A cold front is clearly seen pushing across the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico with thin frontal ropes and scattered cloudiness within 180 nmi of the front from the Bay of Campeche to the Southern Florida Peninsula/Florida Straits. The associated 1023 mb high-pressure system appears to be established over the Deep South providing fair weather and overcast to broken areas of fog and cumuliform low clouds. Meanwhile, in the upper levels (200 hpa), large ridge is over the Rockies while an upper trough has its axis along the Eastern Sea board. This is putting the Southeast United States within the right exit region the upper ridge where upper level confluence and mid-upper dry is providing further tropospheric stability. These winds are also driving mid-upper level cloudiness from Texas across the Gulf and into the Atlantic.
An extratropical low-pressure storm is located near 38N/69W. This system is supporting a cold front, which enters the forecast region at 33N/70W and goes along 28N/75W and through the Florida Straits. Numerous moderate to heavy cloudiness and showers are within 120 nmi of the frontal boundary...which includes the extreme Northern Bahaman Islands. A thin shallow layer of cloudiness accompanies another frontal boundary that has abruptly stalled out across the Atlantic from Santo Domingo to 28N/50W.
by W456
I'm finding FAme interesting, since that area of the Madagascar's coast is not the usual landfall point for cyclones (further north or south on that side seems to be more of a trend, if I recall correctly). It would be interesting to find out whether there is a discernable trend of landfall locations with a correlation to ENSO . . .
....exactly. Last year, I think a few of us communicated those criteria were essential for good leadership at the NHC. Proenza just did not fit the bill.
If this front comes through on schedule, we'll have yet another wet and windy Monday - the 3rd this month. This has been the rainiest January we've had in a long time. The rains haven't necessarily been torrential, but they have persisted in a way I don't associate with January. Dec-Jan-Feb (sometimes also March) is usually the dry period here. I also don't associate this in my mind with La Niña conditions.
It just goes to show we have lots more to understand about weather . . .
www.AdriansWeather.com
The upper level pattern across the region has flattened out with westerlies dominating. At the surface, the typical tradewind regime dominates producing 4-7 ft seas across most parts and 11 ft seas around the Colombian Coast. ROABS and satellite imagery continue to show a tropospheric pattern of dry air from 700 mb to the stratosphere above low-level patches of tradewind moisture. The most pronounce moisture lies along the windward slopes of Central America where orographic lifting is evident on 700 mb omega charts. In other words, it%u2019s a beautiful day across the region.
by W456
Webcam shot from Christiansted Harbor/Boardwalk cam from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.
Hey, MLC. In retrospect, I wonder how seriously Proenza wanted the JOB (as opposed to the POSITION).
Baha, hey! Sounds like you've been getting your share of rain! Proenza seemed to lead like a bull in a China shop - stuff gets broken, and so it did! Maybe now the center can fluently function. I like Read as he comes from within the forecasting world, unlike Proenza who seemed to emerge out of bureaucracy. The spirit and mission of forecasting should be the driving principle that remains at the heart of the NHC imo.
When I saw that Mozamique was flooded, I figured it had something to do with La Niña. The last really bad flooding they had was, if I remember correctly, during a La Niña year. Hopefully they won't get hit by any cyclones this year. The storms that hit that area tend to do so in the latter part of the season, after the heavy summer rains have already saturated the ground. Plus Mozambique is the flood plain for at least some of the major Southern Africa rivers, particularly the great Zambezi.
what did porenza do before they gave him director job last year
Bill Proenza
what did porenza do before they gave him director job last year
He worked for NOAA, but in a more administrative position. I got the impression he started off forecasting, but hadn't done any real "hands on" stuff for a long time. I think he was too used to the "I'm in charge" way of thinking to really fit in at NHC. Even without trying he would have put a lot of backs up.
I still think he himself didn't have a clue what is really needed from a NHC director. I have a feeling it takes a lot more tact than he could muster . . .
But if they WERE here, they'd be forecasting Fame to hit Mozambique . . . LOL
To all the SoFlo bloggers: have your temps dropped substantially today? I'm wondering if this is it as far as the front is concerned, or if we are going to get some more cold air tomorrow.
That E Coast storm is looking pretty good, BTW. Wonder if NJ will get some snow out of it, or only rain.
Viewing: 51 - 101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 — Blog Index