2007: Fifth warmest year on record
The data is in, and 2007 finished as the 5th warmest year on record for the globe, according to figures released by the National Climatic Data Center. For land areas only, 2007 ranked as the warmest year on record. For the oceans, 2007 was the ninth warmest year on record. La Niña continued to strengthen at the end of the year, creating ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific more than -3°F (-1.7°C) below average. The rapid decay of the El Niño event that rang in 2007 and subsequent development of a moderate La Niña event caused the failure of the forecast issued by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office on January 4 of 2007, predicting a a 60% chance that 2007 would be the warmest year on record. The forecasters cited the combined influence of the continuing global warming trend, and the presence of a moderate El Niño event.
Figure 1. Global temperatures (land plus ocean) for 1880-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
The warmest years on record globally were 2005 and 1998, when the global average temperatures were 1.08°F and 1.04°F higher than the long-term average of 57°F. The 2007 temperature was .99°F above average. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise in temperatures of more than 1°F (0.6°C) since 1900. Within the past three decades, the rate of warming in global temperatures has been approximately three times greater than the century scale trend. All ten of the top ten warmest years for the globe have occurred since 1995. The global temperature record goes back to 1880.
Tenth warmest year on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record. U.S. weather records go back to 1895. Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6°F per decade.
Figure 2. U.S. temperatures for 1895-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Arctic sea ice remains near record low levels
December 2007 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the second lowest on record for the month of December, 13% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. December was the second straight month that a new monthly minimum Arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. However, the December 2007 sea ice extent was very close to the record low extent set in 2006, and the ice is much thinner than it was in 2006. This will likely cause a very early melting season and a probable return to record lows by April.
Jeff Masters
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA
27.4S 173.6E - 80 knots 950 hPa
Hurricane Warnin
--------------------------
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa [950 hPa] located near 27.4S 173.6E is reported moving south-southwest at 20 knots. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 80 knots
Hurricane-Force Winds within 30 miles from center
Storm-Force Winds within 120 miles from center
Gale-Force Winds within 360 miles from center southwest semi-circle
and 180 miles from the center northwest semi-circle
u misspelled misspelled, too.
LOL
Don't they cancel the parade if the weather is bad?
Something about pirates? Link
Is this line supposed to dip down past the tip of Florida tomorrow or Monday?
Doesn't look like much is making it to the lake, though.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/20/2142389.htm
This is my first post here, but I have been lurking here for a few years now as I have an avid interest in tropical cyclones, I always find Dr Masters' posts very informative and I have learned a lot from them.
I live in Auckland, NZ, and yes Funa is bearing down on us. The winds are starting to pick up and the sky is going grey. However by the satelite photos it is looking a lot less potent now than it was 24 hours ago (extra-tropical transition is well underway), and no major warnings have been issued yet by the met service. If you dig around at www.metservice.co.nz at this stage they expect the strongest winds and heaviest rains to stay offshore west of the North Island, however they are keeping a very close eye on the storm just in case it does take a more southerly course than expected, in which case it's gonna get real rough round here over the next couple of days.
David.
Whist I agree that Funa is fading as a tropical storm, it is still possible for extra-tropical storms to reintensify as baroclinic systems and cause incredible damage in the NZ area.
Check out this link to a story about what Cyclone Giselle did in April 1968 - Wind gust up to 275km/h in the Wellington area, the Wahine ferry sank in Wellington harbour at the cost of 51 lives, and lots of flooding and wind damage up and down the country.
Also, this link to the same website shows what happened with Cyclone Bola in 1988, no deaths but a lot of flood damage to the Gisborne area that got up to 900mm (36 inches) of rain in 3 days, in an area that normally gets that amount of rain in an entire year.
Yes the SSTs in our area mean that any cyclones that do pass our way struggle to maintain their tropical characteristics, but that doesn't mean that they shouldn't be treated with any less caution.
David.
Hurricane Warning re-issued by RSMC Nadi
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa [965 hPa] located near 29.0S 171.5E is reported moving southwest at 20 knots. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 70 knots
Hurricane-Force Winds within 20 miles from center
Storm-Force Winds within 180 miles from center southern semi-circle
and 60 miles from center northern semi-circle
Gale-Force Winds within 300 miles from center southern semi-circle
and 180 miles from the center northern semi-circle
Just syopped in to see what was going on. Got those down under, stay safe and out of harms wat. Funa looks pretty good. Here in the NE USA we are having a cold snap. Have a good day
....SYNOPSIS....
GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....
A cold front is pushing across the Northwest Caribbean and Western Atlantic from the Gulf of Honduras to beyond 30N/75W. Upper level moisture...in the form of multilayered cloudiness...flows from the Mexican Mainland across the Gulf of Mexico and parts Southeast United States within 200 nmi behind the frontal boundary. The associated high-pressure system is established 1035 mb over the Upper Mississippi Valley, producing fair weather, northerly-northeasterly gale force winds and 7-14 ft seas over the Gulf of Mexico with storm force winds over the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. Cold air stratocumulus is found downstream over the Gulf south of 27N.
A frontal boundary goes from Western Cuba across the Northern Bahamas and along 28N/75W 33N/70W. Light to moderate shower activity is within 120 nmi either side of the front. Ahead of the front, fair weather dominates with small stratocumulus cells seen rotating around the Central Atlantic ridge...east of 65W.
by W456
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2004/summ0403.htm
Scroll down & revisit the unofficially named South Atlantic tropical cyclone Catarina in 2004. Could it happen again? Sure. When?
Upper level ridging and mid-upper level dry air dominates the Caribbean Basin, thereby, deep shower activity remains absent and fair weather is the dominant pattern. Trades are 20 knots south of the subtropical ridge, driving shallow cloudiness and passing showers over the Eastern Caribbean and Western Caribbean to meet the frontal boundary. These trades are also producing 7-8 ft seas across most parts and 13 ft seas along the Colombian coast where the pressure gradient is tightest.
by W456
Glad to see we got some kiwis onboard. Welcome, Dave and sk8er.
I did some cursory looking around at the North Island topography after noting the potential approach of Funa to the area, and I can see where landslides and flooding could be serious in the area. I'd forgotten about the multiple volcanic cones on the North Island, and had been thinking about the South Island as "the one with the mountains".
Sure hope you guys fare well, regardless of the tropical or extra-tropical nature of the storm.
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