Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record
Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.
Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.
Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.
June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.
23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But, "exciting" for me isn't having a cat 5 in the gulf. It's more along the lines seeing fish storms that are cat 5's or tropical cyclones(with the fish and Bermuda not in harm's way)... for instance, 2005, with Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta and etc....they formed in very rare conditions and did things unexepected (without harming things)...that to me is exciting. :) lol
Well - gonna hit the rack - last day on contract tomorrow and I have to "brief" the new guys, so I have to be bright-eyed at 9AM.
Keep the blobs under control, plz...
Link
...lol. Do you need toothpics?
I'm gonna go soon just waiting for the 0z run to finish.
any thing so far???
...me, too sometimes! LOL
The low develops 36 hours out...
I was just saying that the GFS shows the system 120 hours out, meaning that wave is still intact at that time.
God be, I lost my seat but I'm not a man to crawl
No I didn't get rich you son of a bitch
I'll be back just wait and see
Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Yes my whole world lies waiting behind door number three -- Jimmy Buffet's, "Door Number Three"
...ok, TAZ, I think I change my mind. Ok, I choose "Door #1" that Carol Merril is pointing to...the one at 10n,45w where the 1010 mb sfc low is located and forecast to move nw.
...decisions, decisions! lol
Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season
Squalls out on the gulf stream,
Big storms coming soon.
I passed out in my hammock,
God, I slept way past noon.
Stood up and tried to focus,
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
So I stumbled next door to the bar.
Chorus
And now I must confess,
I could use some rest.
I can't run at this pace very long.
Yes, it's quite insane,
I think it hurts my brain.
But it cleans me out and then I can go on.
There's something about this Sunday
It's a most peculiar gray
Strolling down the avenue
That's known as A1A
I was feeling tired, then I got inspired.
And I knew that it wouldn't last long
So all alone I walked back home, sat on my beach
And then I made up this song.
Chorus
Well, the wind is blowin' harder now
Fifty knots of there abouts,
There's white caps on the ocean.
And I'm watching for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside.
In a week I'll be in gay Paris;
That's a mighty long airplane ride.
Chorus
Yes, It cleans me out and then I can go on.
--Jimmy Buffet/A1A/1974
That's a good one to call it a night on, too!
Have a good one, all! Tomorrow is TGIF! Enjoy your weekend!
MLC <---------------out for some shut-eye!
But, really...if ur looking for a cane, just wait, till the first week of August or so, and we will be seeing cane after cane. I'm pretty sure we'll be sick of seeing hurricanes by the end of this season. ;-)...lol
I would appreciate anybody stopping by and reading...possibly even leaving a comment.
Mostly everything you need to know about the disturbances in the atlantic and Dilila in the pacific is here.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 270155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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