Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record
Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.
Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.
Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.
June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.
23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the 18z GFS does show the high building over the next three to four days
The bermuda high has been unusually absent from S.Fl so far this year.
thats bad for Florida.
Our People are working on it as we blog.
just like i thought they would.
There is no 20kt shear in the Gulf.
I wouldn't expect the Gulf of Mexico disturbance to develop, because of strong upper-level wind shear. However, depending on how long it stays in the Gulf, shear may eventually lessen and allow development to occur, but this is unlikely. It will probably wax and wane until it hits land in the next couple of days. I am keeping an eye on it though, since there was practically NOTHING LEFT but low clouds last night during the diurnal max, and here we are at the diurnal minimum with a blob that is comparable in appearance (not strength) to Alberto at its peak of 70 mph last year.
lol has one person mentioned the new 1010mb low in the CATL?
where is that?
Jp look at the first frame thats a 12 hours forecast.
Anywho goin to keep an eye on the wave off Af. only a matter of time to see what she is capable of. Not mutch in the way of dust to contend with, up to the Shear though.
If follows the pattern of the last few years, there may well be more than one.
look at the most recent map i just posted.
no heavy shear people.
The area near the Blob shows Development
potential as being "Favorable"
Go here, using the GFS set the field to 850-200mb shear. Hit the animate button and step through that. That run is about 12hrs old, but it will still give a basic idea of what shear is doing and could be like for the next few days.
You can also find that link that model page and much more from here.
Link
maps project why should the blob not develop?
10-12 kts is Nothing.
The NHC must know something though cuz they completely blew the blob off.
IS, I don't think that is the way it works. Stronger systems usually push in to the high harder then weaker ones.
At what point in the season does tthe ITCZ start shifting southward???
Southward?? why?
Late October probably.
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