Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record
Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.
Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.
Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.
June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.
23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The moisture out in the gulf is impressive... That upper level low is a very important feature... If it can stay strong and keep blowing the tops off of all the thunderstorms in the gulf, I think that's the best case. If it weakens, or starts to retreat to the west or north, I don't like what I see in the gulf.
OK, now what do the trained meteorologists think? The quack has spoken.
There really is not anything immediatly threatening out there..He was just trying to lighten things up.Although, people have been banned from doing that before.
Also. anyone who may have even, for a second, thought that was real, needs some help. He claerly made it a joke..not like some that just skew a few words and still make it look real.
if you look on the infared west african coast it looks as if a very well formed low or cyclone has formed
no idea about the winds and noaa never go out that far
is this a african t.d???????????
does not exsist
it is just the natural warming and cooling of the earth!!!!!!!!!
Excuse me? I've been on vacation for most of this week and just got home to see whirlwinds fake NHC post.
Has a tropical cyclone formed in the atlantic and gone through to the east pacfic
and survived as a t.s strengh storm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007
DISCUSSION...
nothing is happening. go drink, smoke, wishcast
$$
AL-COHOLIC
you are smarter than that..I must have missed something cause you thought that was real?
Looking like a TS, but supposedly pressure is not low enough and there's no low at the surface. That's the problem.
So I'm fairly sure a cape verde style storm has never made it to the pacific as a TS.
Now I'm not sure about something forming right near panama... perhaps that could drift across, though I know of no place you can go to look it up. Try wikipedia?
MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THE WAVE PASSAGE WAS EVIDENT IN THE CURACAO
SOUNDING DATA BETWEEN 26/0000 UTC AND 26/1200 UTC. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W.
i think if my working out is correct that there is A GOOD TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKE SHAPE IN THE AREA
PLEASE TELL ME IF IM WRONG
check on the punto rico image in the tropical setion and tell me if it is right!
The rising air in the gulf might push that upper low one way or another. Tropical systems also have effects on environment that steers them. The air thats rising in the GOM to form those thunderstorms has to come down somewhere.
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979
Is this science or some Price Is Right game? What happened in 1978, did someone bid a dollar higher to my left? Did a Navy Sailor get his sleeve caught in the Showcase Showdown Wheel? Come on down! and post your wild Global Warming Fantasy now!
does that mean that we could work whether a hurricane has been in the atlantic and east pacfic
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007
DISCUSSION...
nothing is happening. go drink, smoke, wishcast
$$
AL-COHOLIC
you are smarter than that..I must have missed something cause you thought that was real?
NO. He edited it. Before it said something like an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico could become a depression over the next 24-48 hours. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor it, or something like that.
Oops...WPB didn't know he edited it! Sorry
Sorry didn't understand your last post?
SOUNDING DATA BETWEEN 26/0000 UTC AND 26/1200 UTC. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W.
i think if my working out is correct that there is A GOOD TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKE SHAPE IN THE AREA 0LEASE TELL ME IF IM WRONG
Mit...I have been asking about that area since this morning but so far no one on here has mentioned it.
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