Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT op 26 juli 2007

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Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters

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1309. mit5000
5:03 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
lets see how long until fox say that a t.d has formed in africa without offical verfication!!!!!
im in a bad mood
its about dailia
u need to read my blog to find out
1308. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:21 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
gulf coast get out ur sandbags ur about to get real wet if not already from so cen texas all the way l.a.
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
1306. Bonedog
1:30 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
oops

Link
Member Since: 14 juli 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1305. eaglesrock
1:29 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
new blog
1304. Bonedog
1:28 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Decending pass shows closed low at 12*N / 45*W

Member Since: 14 juli 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1301. Patrap
1:23 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1300. MisterPerfect
1:23 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Just having a rough morn Pat, sorry for that..unlike me. Maybe I should go find my "pack" or chase a car or something..
Member Since: 1 november 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
1299. StormJunkie
1:23 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Morning TCW and MP, good to see y'all

Anyone care to decipher what time the last ascending pass was?

Member Since: 17 augustus 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1298. Patrap
1:21 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Your post denotes anger,or something under your skin MP...LOL
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1297. Patrap
1:21 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
La,la..morning MP!
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1295. MisterPerfect
1:20 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Isn't every fraction of everything relative to the big scheme? .358889 AU's closer to the Sun and this planet has rocks for congressmen.
Member Since: 1 november 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
1294. TheCaneWhisperer
1:19 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
SUPER LONG RANGE, HIGHLY INACCURATE GFS FORCAST. YIKES! WILL THE FARMERS BE RIGHT?

DISCLAIMER - FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY :-)
1292. stoormfury
1:18 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
The models have been calling for development for a while now. the problem is they have not been consistent and nothing has happenned so far. i believe itis the inconsistences of the long range forecast Be that as it may i am still keeping an eye on the CATL wave. THE CONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW.Itis trying to consolidate along an area of lower pressure, as at the moment there are toomany vortices
Member Since: 22 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1291. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
This dog dont hunt MP..or run with the pack,you should know that.LOL
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1290. MisterPerfect
1:16 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Relevance, maybe. Stale, definetly.
Member Since: 1 november 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
1289. Patrap
1:16 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
And?
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1288. Drakoen
1:15 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
the CMC also forecast something as well..
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1287. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Artic Sea ice MP has a large role in Sunlight reflection,less sea ice..more UV absorption..its relevant to the big scheme. Not the QOD..LOL
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1286. Drakoen
1:14 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
the ECMWF at 144 hours out has the storm in the same position as the GFS 144 hours.
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1285. RadarRich
1:13 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Yep, Drakoen, definitely with a shift a little south by the GFS model shows plenty of moisture available. Water vapor loops show more and more moisture in that area in contrast to previous weeks where it looked like the Sahara Desert. As DR. Masters said above: Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. Who knows, the timing seems about right for that scenario with this circulation, we shall see, as well as the wave just exiting Africa.
Member Since: 28 juni 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1284. Patrap
1:12 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Go back in this blog archive for 14 days and look at the posts on Model development ..and 0% have developed. One needs to focus on the real time as well as the future to get a grasp of whats occuring,and whats LIKELY to occur downstream.Models are not Gospel..there HINTS at best that far out..
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1282. MisterPerfect
1:11 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
If you comment on every run, youll lose focus and get er,,,stale .

Can't wait for the July Arctic Sea Ice Report...as long as we're talking stale...
Member Since: 1 november 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
1281. Patrap
1:10 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Thats one big butted Front protecting the western Atlantic for now..and that has to move before anything will threaten for now Link
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1279. Drakoen
1:09 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
I just saw the ECMWF and it shows development as well.
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1278. Patrap
1:08 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
NRL Monterey Global Imagery
Note: Click desired image for more features and options.
Link
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1276. Patrap
1:07 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Those long range looks are like tossing rocks into a pond and watching the wave rings..each toss will show a different pattern.A consensus,..its a consensus between the Models ..over time that one should focus on.If you comment on every run, youll lose focus and get er,,,stale .
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1275. Drakoen
1:06 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
JP compare the 0z run to the 06z run and you will see.
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1274. Patrap
1:05 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
The front may even push offshore to the GOM and bring another few days of dryer,less humid air to the Gulf coast again.
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1272. Patrap
1:04 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Theres a big ol ULL with a cold front still present near the Great Lakes a spinning..Till that boy gets out the way..its difficult..to get a CV storm ..close
Link
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1271. Drakoen
1:03 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
I edit my post.... its the 0z and the 06z..
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1270. Drakoen
1:02 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
here the link. Compare the area to the 0z run near Florida to the 06z.
Link
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1269. Patrap
1:00 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Trofs plunging South and east like today...thata a buffer from the CV storms. But the BH should build in and establish the east to west road to perdition.
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1267. eaglesrock
1:00 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
What Pat?
1265. Patrap
12:58 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
OMG!
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1264. Drakoen
12:57 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
The GFS long range showed whatever systems its developing coming very close to Florida. It looks like with each run it keeps moving more to the west. That is expected with that high building .
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1263. Patrap
12:55 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Im up..and breathing,not in the obits,Yeah,its another good day for sure SJ!..LOL
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1262. Drakoen
12:54 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
RadarRich the GFS has the low mvoing South. So it should get some more moisture.
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1261. Murko
12:53 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Morning.

Is there anywhere I can find number of storms forecast for this hurricane season, with relation to particular areas? I remember seeing a map about a week ago with a central path, incl FL, painted red, indicating the highest possibility of getting hit.

Any help appreciated, thanks.

El Mrko
Member Since: 13 juli 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1260. RadarRich
12:53 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Hi Folks,, seldom post, but I definitely would watch the circulation at 30-35 west/15 north. It looks like it has a nice spin beginning to come together and has a tight look to it. Definitely smaller than all the blobs and interests we have watched so far this year, but, I believe, the tighter and more compact when they start out that far east, the more chance for development, even this early. Sometimes big things "do" come in smaller packages, just an observation. Obviously many miles to go (along with wind shear/dry air/dust/ etc/etc. and other variables to contend with before she becomes a player. Happy Friday everyone, enjoy your day.
P.S. DewFree, you may want to relax and tone it down a few decibals with your inputs. The knowledge is there, somewhat, (maybe not the spelling), but alas, we are not trying to rewrite War and Peace here, are we??
Member Since: 28 juni 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1259. sonofagunn
12:52 PM GMT op 27 juli 2007
Here is a link to a buoy East of Corpus Christi that has had Westerly winds and falling pressures over the last couple of hours.

No one get their panties in a wad, I'm not predicting imminent death and destruction for everyone on the Gulf Coast, just pointing out an interesting weather buoy reading.
Member Since: 12 juni 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 169

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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