Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest October on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:56 PM GMT op 23 november 2006 +2
October 2006 was the 4th warmest October on record globally, according to the latest monthly report issued by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January through October was the fifth warmest on record. The El Ni�o episode that began in September significantly warmed ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which helped make global ocean temperatures for October the 3rd warmest on record. Arctic sea ice extent remained near record low levels in October at 8.4 million square kilometers.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from normal (anomaly) for October 2006. Siberia and parts of Indonesia joined North America with having below normal temperatures.

An average October for the U.S.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, October of 2006 was near average for temperature in the U.S., ranking as the 52nd coolest in the 110-year record. It was a very wet October, ranking as the 12th wettest October on record. The period January to October ranks as the 3rd warmest such period on record in the U.S., thanks to some unusually warm weather in January, April, and July.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone! I'll have some thoughts on Florida hurricanes in Friday's blog, inspired by my just-completed trip to Florida.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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51. Patrap 4:14 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Snow..New Orleans.Christmas Day 04q
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
53. kmanislander 4:25 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
54. ryang 4:26 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
hI ALL.Pouring here.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
55. kmanislander 4:27 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Looks like the GHCC site is down as I have been unable to access it today. Anyone else have this problem ?

Also, I wonder when ( or if ) the Navy site will begin an invest ?
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
56. kmanislander 4:29 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
hi ryang

I see that. We have had very chilly weather and cool conditions for the last week but the sun is poking its head out again.
Looks like something brewing to our SSE near Panama
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
57. ryang 4:29 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
I am not getting that site either.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
58. ryang 4:30 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
You see that convection on us.
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59. kmanislander 4:34 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
ryang

not sure I understand the statement/question.
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60. ryang 4:36 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
The convection over barbados.Go too stormcarib.com and see.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
61. Patrap 4:37 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
No invest required.Synoptic feature forecasted to remain nearly stationary.
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
62. kmanislander 4:37 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
ok. yes I see from the sat that you are getting showers but they seem to be the usual run of the mill stuff.
Too lat in the season for you to get anything other than rain IMO
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
63. kmanislander 4:41 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
obs from Panama confirm the blob is trying to get organised

Link
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64. kmanislander 4:42 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Pat

only until tomorrow. After that the typical track this time of yr is N to NNW then NE. Would they not do an invest to watch the feature develop even while stationary ??
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
65. Patrap 4:49 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Maybe..but the progs on this is nothing develops.But they can surprise us..as weve seen In the past.
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
66. ProgressivePulse 5:30 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006.

crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.

I also remember 2 circulations yesterday,the more pronounced circulation was farther north, which is now non-existent, allowing the area to become better organized.
Member Since: 19 augustus 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326
67. ProgressivePulse 5:32 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Still doesn't appear to be down to the surface yet.
Member Since: 19 augustus 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326
69. stormchasher 6:16 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 24, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of disturbed weather has formed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea just north of the coast of Panama. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or so as
it remains nearly stationary.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Member Since: 30 juli 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
70. hurricane23 6:27 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
This area has indeed become somewhat better organized over the past couple of hours.Steering currents are rather weak down there so any movement of this area will be rather slow to stationary as the NHC is suggesting.

Here is a close-up visible shot of the area.



INFRARED SHOT
Member Since: 14 mei 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
71. ryang 6:29 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
hi 23.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
72. ProgressivePulse 6:30 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Hey at least we can say it will drift west! lol.
Member Since: 19 augustus 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326
73. hurricane23 6:30 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Hey ryang!
Member Since: 14 mei 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
74. ryang 6:32 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
23 do you think it can affect any part of the US.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
75. hurricane23 6:38 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
One thing to note if this area of disturbed weather trys to make a move to its north it will get swallowed alive by this massive area of dry air surrounding the northern caribbean and the gulf of mexico.


Member Since: 14 mei 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
76. stormchasher 6:44 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
It wont get swallowed alive. It will be slow like a rat getting bitten by a snake and slowly digested:)
Member Since: 30 juli 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
77. stormchasher 6:50 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
If this devolopes itl probaly be a td and just die.
Member Since: 30 juli 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
78. Cregnebaa 7:07 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
That is weird here in Cayman we're in that dry air and it's 100% overcast and drizzling?
Member Since: 19 oktober 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 322
79. hurricane23 7:47 PM GMT op 24 november 2006    
Here is a 2km visible loop of the disturbance in the SW Caribbean.

CLICK HERE
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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