Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:31 PM GMT op 17 juni 2012 +35
Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters
Bigger in Texas (JWMPER)
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.
Bigger in Texas
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1351. StormTracker2K 7:28 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Afternoon NWS of Brownsville Discussion:

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."


Ridge over TX and one over Bermuda while a weakness developes over the eastern Gulf in between the 2 ridges.
Member Since: 26 oktober 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1352. Hurricanes305 7:28 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting 19N81W:
shear is supposed to be dropping but none of the convection is wrapping around the low yet....its just an elongated area of low pressure which is good for the rain totals....its a nice break from the heat...`


Low is starting to become more define with a develop circulation which is broad.
Member Since: 25 mei 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 746
1353. K8eCane 7:29 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Models sure did some shifting since this weekend. I wish they would make up my mind
Member Since: 26 april 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496
1354. stormpetrol 7:29 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very close to getting a name IMO.
Member Since: 29 april 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
1355. Grothar 7:29 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting gordydunnot:
Weather98 I was just trying to give the man a break as it was a presystem, hence junior. I should have know that comment wouldn't get past this group. Sorry Grothar I tried.


LOL. No problema, gordy!
Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680
1357. ChaseyChasinStorms 7:30 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon y'all! :)


What the heck? Where did my profile picture go??
Member Since: 9 september 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
1358. HurricaneHunterJoe 7:32 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Afternoon NWS of Brownsville Discussion:

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants
Member Since: 18 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3158
1359. Hurricanes305 7:34 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not going to happen


Exactly, now that the highs are going to split it would not make sense for the low to head west into the High over the Central US. Thus forcing the W caribbean disturbance north into the Eastern gulf.
Member Since: 25 mei 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 746
1360. midgulfmom 7:36 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting K8eCane:
Models sure did some shifting since this weekend. I wish they would make up my mind
Yes....Dance of the hurricane models....LOL
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1361. Tazmanian 7:36 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



TS or STS 95L looks good
Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111628
1363. StormTracker2K 7:38 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Yeah the absence of the Upper Low east of FL is forcing the ridge to split into 2 different highs with one over TX and the other over Bermuda.
Member Since: 26 oktober 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1364. hydrus 7:38 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Monsoonal systems are hard to pin down. We may see nothing but heavy rains across the SE US or we could have a hurricane per the GGEM model.


That is the scenario I am the most concerned about. Some areas in the panhandle will flood quickly and have not fully recovered from the recent heavy rain event. This could be serious trouble for some folks.
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1365. Tazmanian 7:39 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
this show that 1008mb low going in too MX


Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111628
1366. NICycloneChaser 7:39 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debby by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.
Member Since: 10 augustus 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1958
1367. WxGeekVA 7:41 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    






Convection is weakening, but has expanded in coverage and organization. I think this is due to it becoming separated from the front and transitioning to tropical, similar to what happened with Beryl. Banding is also becoming apparent on the south and east sides of the system as well.
Member Since: 3 september 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3354
1368. Tazmanian 7:41 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debbie by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.




well see i think we are well on are well too 21 name storms if we dont get a EL nino later this summer or fall
Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111628
1370. nigel20 7:42 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debby by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.

Agreed.
Member Since: 6 november 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4904
1371. Tygor 7:42 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Nah it's okay, we got 0.02" last night. We're good for the rest of the summer.
Member Since: 6 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
1372. wunderkidcayman 7:44 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Exactly, now that the highs are going to split it would not make sense for the low to head west into the High over the Central US. Thus forcing the W caribbean disturbance north into the Eastern gulf.

right we are on the same pace good

now the low is located somewhere around
15.5N 81.0W
Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997
1373. Grothar 7:44 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680
1375. MississippiBoy2 7:45 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Hey anything going on around Texas coast?I think I see some spin or am I just seeing things?Could be my eyes are playing tricks on me, age might have something to do with it.
Member Since: 22 februari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1376. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 7:45 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1377. DavidHOUTX 7:45 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting Tygor:


Nah it's okay, we got 0.02" last night. We're good for the rest of the summer.


Lol. At least we have a sense of humor about it!
Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1378. NICycloneChaser 7:46 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:




well see i think we are well on are well too 21 name storms if we dont get a EL nino later this summer or fall


I can see us getting 14 or 15, due to number inflation caused by the early storms if nothing else, but I'd be pretty shocked to see numbers as high as 21.
Member Since: 10 augustus 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1958
1379. Hurricanes305 7:48 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

right we are on the same pace good

now the low is located somewhere around
15.5N 81.0W


Ok so that confirms that the low in the GOH is just a mid-level spin.
Member Since: 25 mei 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 746
1380. hydrus 7:48 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
48 hours,84 hours.84 hour Surfc Precipitable Water
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1381. luvtogolf 7:48 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not going to happen


Why not? High pressure to the north. It is a common path for June.
Member Since: 12 juni 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
1382. nofailsafe 8:34 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Already there.
Member Since: 18 juni 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 852
1383. zillaTX 11:50 PM GMT op 18 juni 2012    
Local weather says nothing for Texas where rain is concerned. Sure hope he's wrong!
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1384. MoeWest 12:29 AM GMT op 19 juni 2012    
The Haitians are in for a wet night.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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