Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:
Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.
International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.
Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.
Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:
Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.
Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.
Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.
Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.
Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:
1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.
2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.
While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.
Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.
Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.
Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (
RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
End of the Icefishing Season (
bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
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WFUS54 KTSA 200151
TORTSA
OKC001-021-135-200230-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0006.120320T0151Z-120320T0230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 848 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE TENKILLER STATE PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
COOKSON...CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...TAHLEQUAH AND ELDON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
Kind of a long link, but plenty of tornado pictures there.
That would be goood news
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI
*SIGH*
WFUS54 KEWX 200156
TOREWX
TXC013-029-200300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0010.120320T0156Z-120320T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
* AT 849 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
POTEET...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LEMING.
THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FM 476 AND HIGHWAY 16 BETWEEN POTEET AND
SOMERSET.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LAT...LON 2933 9859 2904 9835 2889 9877 2902 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 222DEG 19KT 2900 9872
http://www.kens5.com/on-tv/
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/
KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.
you remember the TWO map that someone posted last year with a heap of storm you know the dooms day hurricane 2012 thing can someone post that for me right now I need to use that image for something
Holy @^*%!!!
That appears to be more of a large tornado. Hopefully that was after it passed Divine.
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 907 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 904 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LA CROSSE WI - KARX 901 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 900 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 856 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 851 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 839 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LA CROSSE WI - KARX 838 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 834 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 832 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 829 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 829 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 825 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 815 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 623 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 807 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 803 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 802 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 802 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 756 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 748 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 609 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 744 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 742 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 737 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 737 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
Nitey...
Does this work or should it be closer/further out?
This is a photo from tornado in Kansas from 2004. That is NOT from tonight's storm.
Thank you once more to you guys.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD COMPLICATES THE FORECAST.
HAVING SAID THAT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUPPORTS SOME SURFACE CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH TIME...WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 4 /THU 3-22/...THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY DAY 5 /FRI 3-23/...THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST DAY 6 /SAT 3-24/...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7 /SUN 3-25/. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED...GIVEN WEAK SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 03/19/2012
------------------------------------
so maybe the east will get a slight risk(I HOPE). they said thru day 6, and East coast was day 7, hehehe. we shall c
TXC019-171-265-385-463-200530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0018.120320T0223Z-120320T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...
CENTRAL KERR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...
* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT.
* AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 PM. RADAR
ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH GROUND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA BY 1030 PM.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KERRVILLE...VANDERPOOL...GARNER STATE PARK...HARPER...HUNT...
INGRAM...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...MOUNTAIN
HOME...REAGAN WELLS...RIO FRIO...TIVYDALE...UTOPIA AND WALTONIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 3030 9890 2947 9954 2956 9987 3038 9922
$$
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