My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT op 10 februari 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Member Since: 7 juli 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
That's a Bad Mammy Jammie Gro..


Madagascar is in my thought's.



Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
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Quoting hydrus:
Courtesy of Wiki..:)..While the system was organizing, the center crossed the equator to reach about 0.5° S, thus becoming an anticyclonic circulation in the southern hemisphere. This was unusual, as the Coriolis effect is nonresistant along the equator—the Coriolis effect refers to planetary vorticity, which provides the spin in a cyclone.[1][4] The JTWC later assessed the system as remaining in the northern hemisphere, reaching as far south as 0.7° N, or about 80 km (50 mi) from the equator.[5] After the circulation organized further beneath the convection, the JTWC issued another TCFA at 0300 UTC on November 28.[6] Three hours later, the agency classified the system as Tropical Cyclone 05A about 1300 km (800 mi) southwest of the southern tip of India.[7] In a post-season analysis, the JTWC estimated the cyclone became a tropical storm six hours earlier.[5] At around the same time, the IMD classified it as a "low pressure area... likely to become well marked."Cyclone Agni after formation, just to the north of the equator


You and hydrus got it, Geek. And here I thought all of you only read my entries for the laughs.:)

Look at this track. It really did come close.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Krewe of Carrollton Rolls at NOON Down the Traditional St. Charles Route from Napoleon Ave.

Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.

Courtesy of Wiki..:)..While the system was organizing, the center crossed the equator to reach about 0.5° S, thus becoming an anticyclonic circulation in the southern hemisphere. This was unusual, as the Coriolis effect is nonresistant along the equator—the Coriolis effect refers to planetary vorticity, which provides the spin in a cyclone.[1][4] The JTWC later assessed the system as remaining in the northern hemisphere, reaching as far south as 0.7° N, or about 80 km (50 mi) from the equator.[5] After the circulation organized further beneath the convection, the JTWC issued another TCFA at 0300 UTC on November 28.[6] Three hours later, the agency classified the system as Tropical Cyclone 05A about 1300 km (800 mi) southwest of the southern tip of India.[7] In a post-season analysis, the JTWC estimated the cyclone became a tropical storm six hours earlier.[5] At around the same time, the IMD classified it as a "low pressure area... likely to become well marked."Cyclone Agni after formation, just to the north of the equator
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.



Link
Member Since: 3 september 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it sounded like Irene all over again at times.

I just wish it would snow here. :\

Cold air is pointless without snow, ice, sleet, freezing rain, etc. Of course, it's bad for drivers. :P
Well it SNOWED here.HA IN YOUR FACE.(Points finger).
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yeah it was quite the night 2 inches if rain a centimeter of freezing rain and 2 cm of snow .... lots of wind!
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Quoting JNCali:
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.

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Quoting Patrap:
37F in NOLA on the Parade Route.


Bundle up.
37 degrees..hhhaaaaa !....sweater weather at da most..:)
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting Skyepony:
Models are in better agreement today..





They are more like my living pantry. They die & I'll have to pay for fruits & veggies. Been so warm we've had the slip & slide out some this last week.
I wish I had some pics to show you. The warm weather here is welcome, but the mets are warning us of a higher risk of tornadoes and severe weather due to the La-nina and the warm gulf. We have not been to lucky with the tornadoes the past dozen years in Tennessee.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting JNCali:
with out a doubt... What effect does La Nina/El Nino have on the formation of the TDR~ TX Death Ridge?
That is a good question, don't even bring up the Texas Death Ridge that killed this state last year. I am hoping for a tropical system this Summer and hopefully a El Nino soon. We are having a wet La Nina which only happens 1 in every 5 La Ninas so this state is very fortunate this year so far. I have water standing in my yard past 2 weeks but 50 miles northwest of here Lakes are down 55 feet so some areas are getting alot of rain and so are not getting much at all.
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557. Skyepony (Mod)
Models are in better agreement today..



Quoting hydrus:
You sound like Mom. The plants are like her pets..Our trees and flowers have been crazy around here. I was outside wearing shorts and a t-shirt a few days ago. Virtually unheard of this time of year.


They are more like my living pantry. They die & I'll have to pay for fruits & veggies. Been so warm we've had the slip & slide out some this last week.
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37F in NOLA on the Parade Route.


Bundle up.
Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting hydrus:
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.

Yeah, it sounded like Irene all over again at times.

I just wish it would snow here. :\

Cold air is pointless without snow, ice, sleet, freezing rain, etc. Of course, it's bad for drivers. :P
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Quoting hydrus:
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.
WHEW, Stay warm up there, dropped into the 30's here last night, back down there tonight too and a cold breeze right now,Tampa must be freezing away from the coast I bet
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dropped down to 19F here in southeastern North Carolina last night, with winds near 40 mph.

Wind chills were below 10F.
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Dropped down to 19F here in southeastern North Carolina last night, with winds near 40 mph.

Wind chills were below 10F.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah, should strengthen just a little more. I think I went 115kts peak but I'll lower that to 110kts.


It was a cold morning here. Was expecting ~35ºF for a low, saw 33.8ºF. Brought in the zone 10 plants, everything else looks okay.
You sound like Mom. The plants are like her pets..Our trees and flowers have been crazy around here. I was outside wearing shorts and a t-shirt a few days ago. Virtually unheard of this time of year.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting gulfbreeze:
29 in Gulf Breeze first freeze this year bird bath is frozen!!
Twelve degrees here on the plateau. Wind ten to fifteen. Wind chill near zero.By tomorrow it will have been below freezing for over forty-eight hours. coldest so far this winter.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
549. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like Madagascar will get whacked pretty bad Skye..Good morning to you.


Yeah, should strengthen just a little more. I think I went 115kts peak but I'll lower that to 110kts.


It was a cold morning here. Was expecting ~35ºF for a low, saw 33.8ºF. Brought in the zone 10 plants, everything else looks okay.
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It looks like Giovanna is finally trying to strengthen. Considering it is currently at 100 knots, I may be able to believe it will make landfall somewhere in the 110-120 knot range.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... supposed to get down to 59 here tonight and 64 tomorrow night... looks like this is the Feb cooldown.... it still feels weird, though, because we've been having rain, including some flooding-type downpours, since the beginning of the month. It's not that usual to have heavy rain, especially during the day, in February; rain on 8 of the first 11 days is very unusual...
Your SUMMER should be very interesting......
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Quoting hydrus:
Good one Cali.
a little Sunday am humor (very little for some I'm sure.. the jr.highers are lost)
Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... Snow in S TX.... It does snow in the DFW area, I know from experience, but S TX seems pretty far south. However, I'm sure TEXANS are not complaining, and are willing to take whatever precipitation however they can get it.... lol
with out a doubt... What effect does La Nina/El Nino have on the formation of the TDR~ TX Death Ridge?
Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
29 in Gulf Breeze first freeze this year bird bath is frozen!!
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Quoting JNCali:
So the mafia controls weather at the equator... Don Coriolis :)
Good one Cali.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Not possible. The Coriolis effect would not exist anymore and would cause all spinning to stop after 5 degrees N/S. I mean a disturbance could change hemispheres I guess but a full-fledged storm couldn't cross over the equator.
So the mafia controls weather at the equator... Don Coriolis :)
Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM of Giovanna. Click pick for very large quicktime movie.. right throught he center during eyewall replacement.



Cloudsat just caught the left side. Impressive rain..
Looks like Madagascar will get whacked pretty bad Skye..Good morning to you.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Wow... Snow in S TX.... It does snow in the DFW area, I know from experience, but S TX seems pretty far south. However, I'm sure TEXANS are not complaining, and are willing to take whatever precipitation however they can get it.... lol
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Quoting cedarparktxguy:
Snowing in South Texas.........
Del Rio is white, that does not happen too often, should not last long, it is suppose to warm up pretty good soon? I think most of this will turn to rain as warm air overrides cold air.
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Snowing in South Texas.........
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537. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM 99S
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536. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of Giovanna. Click pick for very large quicktime movie.. right throught he center during eyewall replacement.



Cloudsat just her too. Impressive rain..
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently on the Gold Coast, Queensland. (video)









Cool post Aussie.
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting Grothar:


Enjoy it while you can. I don't have a bedtime anymore. I just fall asleep every 15 minutes. Sort of a nice break in the day.
Some tasty Extra Strength Geritol for Ancients is a terrific sleep aid..yum..
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Enjoying a cool breezy day so far here in Nassau, Bahamas. The sun is out, so I'll not be complaining about the chill.... lol. It's open windows and fresh air, especially since we had some rain yesterday along with the frontal passage to keep the dust down. It seems to be shaping up to be a great Sunday, so if you don't hear too much more from me you know what happened....

Enjoy your day! Before we know it, we'll be back to nail-biting and blogging over Sunday dinner.... lol

I envy you..I would love to be in the Bahamas on a day such as this..:)
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22267
532. Skyepony (Mod)

Here's one that came close to the equator.
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Hmmm.... supposed to get down to 59 here tonight and 64 tomorrow night... looks like this is the Feb cooldown.... it still feels weird, though, because we've been having rain, including some flooding-type downpours, since the beginning of the month. It's not that usual to have heavy rain, especially during the day, in February; rain on 8 of the first 11 days is very unusual...
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Quoting JNCali:
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?


Not possible. The Coriolis effect would not exist anymore and would cause all spinning to stop after 5 degrees N/S. I mean a disturbance could change hemispheres I guess but a full-fledged storm couldn't cross over the equator.
Member Since: 3 september 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
you can thank the developing storm off the NC/VA coast for the high winds from the NW. sitting at 997mb, forecast to deepen just like the one before it and roar across Nova Scotia as a 974mb storm.
Member Since: 4 augustus 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
I'm pretty sure we've had a disturbance begin very near the Equator in the Indian Ocean, but don't remember ever hearing of one that crossed that line. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it has happened in the Indian Ocean. They get some freaky stuff over there from time to time.
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Morning all. Enjoying a cool breezy day so far here in Nassau, Bahamas. The sun is out, so I'll not be complaining about the chill.... lol. It's open windows and fresh air, especially since we had some rain yesterday along with the frontal passage to keep the dust down. It seems to be shaping up to be a great Sunday, so if you don't hear too much more from me you know what happened....

Enjoy your day! Before we know it, we'll be back to nail-biting and blogging over Sunday dinner.... lol

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Quoting MissNadia:


They spin clockwise south of the equator !
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?
Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Jasmine has gone from monday into sunday i believe :D
Member Since: 4 augustus 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It looks like a clockwise Jose. :P


They spin clockwise south of the equator !
Member Since: 27 juli 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes, it was crazy last night. The entire house was vibrating from the wind and the neighbors trash cans blew 200 yards down the street. My PWS recorded gusts to 48 MPH at 1:32 AM last night. We also recorded 0.3 inches of snow, mostly from 10:00 to Midnight.
Those winds made the windchill feel as though it was in the single to sometimes even -2 outside.You could here things that weren't tied down be thrown around.Its still blustery outside even now.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Did you see my earlier post????.Wind damage was occurring where I had lived.I saw the winds yesterday night whip around the snow like a blizzard.


Yes, it was crazy last night. The entire house was vibrating from the wind and the neighbors trash cans blew 200 yards down the street. My PWS recorded gusts to 48 MPH at 1:32 AM last night. We also recorded 0.3 inches of snow, mostly from 10:00 to Midnight.
Member Since: 3 september 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It looks like a clockwise Jose. :P


They were looking at it but forget about development.

TXST21 KNES 121214
TCSSTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 12/1145Z

C. 38.0S

D. 45.7W

E. THREE/MET-9

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. FT IS BASED ON DT.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You can freeze this image by uploading it at imageshack,us. Click url and then put link at space and that is it.

Link


I'm silly anyway, all I have to do is save the thing to my HD, but I rarely do that, so I sort of...forget...


I have no clue why I have a 500GB HD, because I never use more than a few megabytes of it...sad...
Member Since: 25 januari 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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