My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT op 10 februari 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
then i doubt she will get to a 5 due to high ssts she wont weaken below cat 3 at landfall pretty dangerous situation

So...because it's passing over high SSTs, it won't make Category 5 intensity? That makes no sense...
Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
f*** you Giovanna!!!.I was hoping she'll pull a Irene on us...Dammit!!.
Member Since: 14 augustus 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
Quoting yqt1001:


She just came out of an EWRC today.
then i doubt she will get to a 5 due to high ssts she wont weaken below cat 3 at landfall pretty dangerous situation
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall

1.) It has already been through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (just finished it earlier actually) and there are no indications that it will go through one anytime soon.

2.) It currently has winds of 145 mph and is crossing over increasingly warm waters.
Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Cat size dosent relate the Impact of any individual Storm..well,as it was designed for wind loading on Structures only.


Surge potential and an areas relation to it and duration will matter greatly here.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall


She just came out of an EWRC today, I see no reason she couldn't reach a 5 before land interaction starts happening.
Member Since: 19 november 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall
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We have a potentially Catastrophic Cyclone approaching a Populated area of 4-5 Million.


Its also some of the Highest and most dense Population as well.



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0100Z Image

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I never played at clubs, just an occasional game here and there. Haven't played for years, yet still got 1450.

Take that test with a grain of salt.


I did a bit of research on it and there were some criticisms on it.

It seems it actually does give accurate results within about 100 to 200 points.

However, as the critics point out, you could just get "lucky" and guess the best move randomly and still get rated high.


So while the test can probably rule out low ranks, it can't deal with "lucky" moves, which is to say, an inferior player could "accidentally" make a very good move, even though they can't explain it.


All I did was apply a few basic rules, and think a few moves ahead on several possible moves that immediately leap out.

obviously:
Don't give up check.
Don't give up a queen if you have it.
Try check.
Capture queen if you can.
Trade "up" if you can.
think a few moves ahead.

Seems simple enough.

Evaluating positional or tempo advantages is a lot harder though, and the test is literally looking for the "best possible move," even if there's more than one move that leads to you winning, or even if you can't possibly win.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Giovanna is almost completely wrapped up. She's probably at 145-150mph right now IMO.

Latest update is 145 mph...Only 15 mph to go. Will it make it? I think it's a slight possibility.


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708. j2008
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I don't think Giovanna is going to get any stronger than it already is. Look at all the dry air to its southwest that was just ingested into the system today and it continues to infiltrate it. It will have this to fight until landfall.

WaterVapor Loop
Link

Doesnt look like a problem to me, srong storms often create thier own enviroment as Giovanna seems to be doing.
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Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
Giovanna is almost completely wrapped up. She's probably at 145-150mph right now IMO.
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Quoting Patrap:
GIOVANNI Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA)


GIOVANNI? Errm...wrong gender.
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I worry about CIMSS's ADT sometimes...lol.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.0 4.5



The numbers will go back up in a minute when they get the center in the right position.
Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
TXXS23 KNES 122338
TCSSIO

A. 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 18.1S

D. 54.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...EYE EYE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5. WMG
EYE SURROUNDED BY B LACK GIVES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 YIELDING A DT
OF 5.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD




UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm



Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 17:33:00 S Lon : 54:03:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 941.1mb/107.2kt
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Already in the low 40's in Tampa. Radiational cooling is gonna kick in tonite since not much cloud cover is in place currently but, it appears some clouds are moving in later so temps will drop quickly then ease some late tonite when the clouds move back in...

Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Giovanna may soon start feeling some effects of interaction with Madagascar. Madagascar is kinda like Hispaniola- not that big, but mountainous, so it is often surrounded by dry air. We saw an affect like this with Irene, as it was slow to intensify because it periodically ingested dry air as it moved by Hispaniola. Just a thought though; Giovanna is a strong storm and could easily shrug this off.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Does anyone have any sat. pics of Giovanna to post? :)


I think the GOES satellite is out of order.
Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
I don't think Giovanna is going to get any stronger than it already is. Look at all the dry air to its southwest that was just ingested into the system today and it continues to infiltrate it. It will have this to fight until landfall.

WaterVapor Loop
Link
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Yes, just as I thought. Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the southwestern side.

Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
www.tenspider-weather.net/tropical

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Does anyone have any sat. pics of Giovanna to post? :)
Member Since: 10 september 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11424
Giovanna has that classic category 5 "shape". Now all it needs is the convection to match.

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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/loop

click image for loop

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The Impact begins as Seas begin to rise along the Madagascar Coast in the Warned area
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Amazing Videos of Earth at Night from Space

By Adam Mann February 10, 2012 | 7:58 pm


Note the Rig Lights in the Central and Western GOM
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Does that look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle to you, or is the system just too far out of range that reflectivity is getting screwy?


The latter, thought it would not surprise me if however there was some slight deformation of the S eyewall at this time. Either way, this is a significant cyclone.
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Gee wiz ima hungry be bck soOoOoOoOoOn
Member Since: 4 augustus 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

13 Feb 0000Z


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I wish we had hurricane hunters in the southern hemisphere to give us a confirmed intensity on storms like Giovanna. Satellite estimates are good, but recon is much better. Also, I agree that Giovanna's eye looks a little ragged in the latest frame.
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OMG,Madagascar is where the wonderful and rare Madagascan Criollo cocoa trees grow!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



i just took the test

Result:


Your estimated Elo rating is

1080


I never played at clubs, just an occasional game here and there. Haven't played for years, yet still got 1450.

Take that test with a grain of salt.
Member Since: 31 oktober 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1558
Quoting j2008:
I definatly dont think Giovanna is up to cat 5 yet, but she is definatly on her way.


Yeah, it needs to wrap the convection around the SW side.
Member Since: 31 oktober 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1558
651 aspectre "The center of Giovanna...is (JTWC)predicted to hit just south of Toamasina(TMM)...
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak*side of the storm.)
...then proceed on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR)."
653 Xyrus2000 "...with this storm, I don't really think it makes all that much difference which side hits the city. ...Link... Currently 5.74 million are in the radius of hurricane force winds, and most of them aren't exactly living in anything that could be considered up to hurricane code."

There is that. But Madagascar needs all the breaks it can get facing this storm: it doesn't take much more than a major rainfall to cause a flooding&mudslides DISASTER there. Hurricane winds on top of major rain makes the situation far worse.
And if the main port gets knocked out, it's gonna be really difficult to get any humanitarian aid into the affected areas.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
That's really ragged compared to the earlier frame.

Ate some dry air buffet, which is a good thing considering proximity.



Does that look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle to you, or is the system just too far out of range that reflectivity is getting screwy?
Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
That's really ragged compared to the earlier frame.

Ate some dry air buffet, which is a good thing considering proximity.
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Quoting 1911maker:
"Rather than the actual temperature rising, we believe there is high possibility that the thermometer concerned is displaying erroneous data."............


The best thing to do is assume the thermometer is slightly under-estimating the temperature, and just pump in more water more quickly.

I don't know what to tell these guys about job security. Several American experts in nuclear and related fields said they thought the reactors should have been concreted in.

It's unclear to my mind what the Japanese goal is at this point. It would seem to be ridiculous to try to keep pumping water over this thing for the next 10 to 20 years, particularly given the rate of spills of contaminated water already happening on the site.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Raw T score is getting up there..Adjusted is still a bit lower but kinda come to it's plateau's end judging by it's past..it's up or down from here. I'll go with up..it is coming into warmer water now.



Cyclone Giovanna 233000Z Feb 12

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 940.9mb/ 107.2kt

Raw T# 6.9
Adj T# 6.8
Final T# 5.7

Scene Type: EYE

----------------

probably going for cat 5
Member Since: 4 augustus 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Patrap:
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Weak on that southwestern side. Needs to strengthen that if it wants to become a Category 5.
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Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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670. j2008
Quoting RTSplayer:


In order to get to 155 to 160 range, it basicly needs a solid shield of yellow symetrically around the eye.

Then around 160 and above, it gets weird, because the "colder is stronger" thing does not seem to always hold true.

I've noticed some annular storms can maintain category 5 for a while even while having significantly warmer cloud tops, so the temperature is not always a perfect indicator.
I definatly dont think Giovanna is up to cat 5 yet, but she is definatly on her way.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.