My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT op 10 februari 2012

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Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

BUCKEYE BIRTH (WHIPPME)
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
BUCKEYE BIRTH

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Quoting KoritheMan:

Thought it was obvious from the context. The former.

Ugly thing...

Member Since: 6 juli 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
The makings of a really bad storm for Nova Scotia and surrounding areas:

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Quoting TampaSpin:



LOoks like a nice Ohio Valley Snow Storm coming in about 4 days!


1-2 inches isn't what I would call a nice snow storm....

gfs




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Alright well here is that blog i told u guyz i would write on the new major cyclone Giovanna Link
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What type of casus belli would the US have on Iran right now? Wouldn't a war with Iran right now count as war of aggression?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
More talking and talking by Iranian leaders about Nuclear Program.

TEHRAN - Iran will soon unveil "big new" nuclear achievements, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday while reiterating Tehran's readiness to revive talks with the West over the country's controversial nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad spoke at a rally in Tehran as tens of thousands of Iranians marked the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-Western monarchy and brought Islamic clerics to power.

Ahmadinejad did not elaborate on the upcoming announcement but insisted Iran would never give up its uranium enrichment, a process that makes material for reactors as well as weapons.


Link



Lot of talking from the manly keyboard warriors as well

THE ROVING EYE
The return of the Keyboard Warriors
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB11Ak02 .html


Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Return of the Keyboard Warriors - a prized Return of the Living Dead spin-off - is at hand. From Republican chicken hawks to public intellectuals, right-wing America is erupting in renewed neo-conservative revolt. The year 2012 is the new 2002; Iran is the new Iraq. Whatever the highway - real men go to Tehran via Damascus, or real men go to Tehran
non-stop - they want a war, and they want it now.

Go ahead and jump Exhibit A is an op-ed piece at the Wall Street Journal [1] - similar to countless others popping up virtually everyday not only in this Masters of the Universe vehicle but also in the Washington Post and myriad rags across "Western civilization".

The festival of fallacies ranges from the usual "diplomacy has run its course" to "the sanctions are too late" - culminating in the right-wing weapon of choice; "Iran is within a year of getting to the point when it will be able to assemble a bomb essentially at will." Why bother to follow what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is doing, not to mention the National Intelligence Estimates released by the US intelligence community?

And why not add imperial disdain tinged with racism, as in "Iran is a Third World country that can't even protect its own scientists in the heart of Tehran". Of course not; they are being killed by the Iranian terror group Mujahideen-e-Khalq, merrily trained, financed and armed by Israel's Mossad, as US corporate media has just discovered. [2] Everybody in Iran has known this for months.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB11Ak02 .html
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264. Skyepony (Mod)
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23 and burrrrrezy here in White Bluff TN.. little snow scattered about.. I bet those daffodils are grumpy..
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morning all
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Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430



Nice dip of the Jet!
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LOoks like a nice Ohio Valley Snow Storm coming in about 4 days!
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179 Skyepony "Nature (online February 8, 2012); doi: 10.1038/nature10847
Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise
Thomas Jacob, John Wahr, W. Tad Pfeffer and Sean Swenson
"

Thanks for the title. Neither Google nor Nature would cough up the article with Wahr Jacob Pfeffer Swenson used as the keywords.

Table 1: Inverted 2003-2010 mass balance rates -- Uncertainties are given at the 95% confidence level.
-11 plus-or-minus 02 gigatons/year _ 1. Iceland
-03 plus-or-minus 02 gigatons/year _ 2. Svalbard
000 plus-or-minus 02 gigatons/year _ 3. Franz Josef Land
-04 plus-or-minus 02 gigatons/year _ 4. Novaya Zemlya
-01 plus-or-minus 02 gigatons/year _ 5. Severnaya Zemlya
002 plus-or-minus 10 gigatons/year _ 6. Siberia and Kamchatka
003 plus-or-minus 06 gigatons/year _ 7. Altai
-04 plus-or-minus 20 gigatons/year _ 8. High Mountain Asia
-05 plus-or-minus 06 gigatons/year _ 8a. Tianshan
-01 plus-or-minus 05 gigatons/year _ 8b. Pamirs and Kunlun Shan
-05 plus-or-minus 06 gigatons/year _ 8c. Himalaya and Karakoram
007 plus-or-minus 07gigatons/year _ 8d. Tibet and Qilian Shan
001 plus-or-minus 03 gigatons/year _ 9. Caucasus
-02 plus-or-minus 03 gigatons/year _ 10. Alps
003 plus-or-minus 05 gigatons/year _ 11. Scandinavia
-46 plus-or-minus 07 gigatons/year _ 12. Alaska
005 plus-or-minus 08 gigatons/year _ 13. Northwest America excl. Alaska
-33 plus-or-minus 05 gigatons/year _ 14. Baffin Island
-34 plus-or-minus 06 gigatons/year _ 15. Ellesmere, Axel Heiberg and Devon Islands
-06 plus-or-minus 12 gigatons/year _ 16. South America excl. Patagonia
-23 plus-or-minus 09 gigatons/year _ 17. Patagonia
002 plus-or-minus 03 gigatons/year _ 18. New Zealand
-222 plus-or-minus 09 gigatons/year _ 19. Greenland ice sheet
-165 plus-or-minus 72 gigatons/year _ 20. Antarctica ice sheet
-536 plus-or-minus 93 gigatons/year _ Total
-148 plus-or-minus 30 gigatons/year _ Glaciers(and)IceCaps excl. Greenland and Antarctica PGICs
-384 plus-or-minus 71 gigatons/year _ Antarctica and Greenland IceSheets and PeripheralGICs

1.48 plus-or-minus 0.26 millimetres/year _ Total contribution to SeaLevelRise
0.41 plus-or-minus 0.08 millimetres/year _ SeaLevelRise due to GICs excluding Greenland and Antarctica PGICs
1.06 plus-or-minus 0.19 millimetres/year _ SeaLevelRise due to Antarctica and Greenland IceSheets and PGICs
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Deleted. Unicode reacts oddly with WUforum's Modify function
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Looks like another very narrow, but persistent lake michigan snow band setting up across Indiana's two northwestern-most counties. I remember either last winter, or the one before they had a similar band park itself over the South Bend area.


Lake effect snow warnings up... could drop 6 to 12 inches.


Poor wife! Visiting friends, right in the center of that plume, on the MI/IN border. Gonna be snowed in for sure.
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Don't worry Dr. M. Global Warming will tell you to plant your Buckeye Tree and then you will be happy when the cold kills it off.
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Guys...what about this Brazil subtropical low???
No one has said anything about...
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More talking and talking by Iranian leaders about Nuclear Program.

TEHRAN - Iran will soon unveil "big new" nuclear achievements, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday while reiterating Tehran's readiness to revive talks with the West over the country's controversial nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad spoke at a rally in Tehran as tens of thousands of Iranians marked the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-Western monarchy and brought Islamic clerics to power.

Ahmadinejad did not elaborate on the upcoming announcement but insisted Iran would never give up its uranium enrichment, a process that makes material for reactors as well as weapons.


Link

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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i know right!!!! im in arlington, they put out salt for that big snow storm 3 days ago (that never happened, it just rained) more of the same this time, probably more snow this time, but no accumalation, it has to snow at a rate of an inch an hour for about 2 hours for it to stick around here at this point in the year!
It's cloudy outside right now.Winds are calm.Nothing exciting happening.
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249. k1920
Wolverines? Wikipedia says they are extremely rare in Michigan (except at the University)--but there are some in Alaska. Perhaps we should start a campaign to fund a "reintroduce the wolverine" to Michigan to save those poor Michiganders!
Cheers (From a neighbor in Wisconsin)
k1920

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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Considering that "groundbreaking" reports of this type are almost a dime a dozen, I'm sure many scientists will be interested to analyze it.


The Bild is a tabloid similar to the Daily Mail and other such "journalistic" creations that thrive on sensationalism.

...renowned publisher Hoffmann & Campe...

This publisher is a general publisher, not a science journal. They make money off publishing books, regardless of content.

...prominent socialist and environmental figure...

For some reason people automatically assume that just because you're an environmentalist means that a) you agree with the theory of global warming and b) you know what you're talking about when it comes to the environment. That is not the case.

In any event, the last IPCC report was released 5 years ago. And yet only now has this professor written a book about this. Not a research article. Not a scientific paper. Not a peer-reviewed journal entry. Not even a textbook. Just a book. Something that any crackpot global warming conspiracy nutcase can do, and they have.

Needless to say, I find that a simple book being produced by a professor of chemistry who is currently the sitting CEO of RWE (an energy company) is hardly a convincing argument against the current science. Get back to me when this guy has some peer-reviewed science to back up his claims.
Member Since: 31 oktober 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
48F here at sunrise. got 0.04" drizzle last night. yesterday the weather guessers said mid 30's tonight, mid-20's sunday a.m. no biggie.. plants will pop right back when it warms up. unless it's tropical plants. rain knocked the cedar pollen down! it was like yellow smoke every time a breeze passed by.
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Thank you Dr. Masters for this very interesting information. All I pray for is for it to be accurate. I would love to be able to grow some herbs which are native to Puerto Rico here in Mississippi. They are impossible to find here and they add awesome flavor to food. Also Avocado trees If this trend continue and I hope it does Avocado trees will be a good new crop here in the Gulf Coast. Lets hope for warm weather everyone. I'm serious I'm not being sarcastic. I hope it gets warmer. I'm getting on my SUV now to continue giving my grain of sand (or CO2)

Ciao
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RE: 239

"Fear-mongering" pays well!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
All the budding plants and flowers here in P'cola are in for a rude surprise this evening!
y are in for a rude surprise tonight, im afraid most of northern and even central florida will get it, here near tampa, tonight its going into the 30's, but it wont last long thank goodness
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All the budding plants and flowers here in P'cola are in for a rude surprise this evening!
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Morning, Ok here we go back into the 20's again tonight and sunday night. There goes all the flowers and small trees. Zephyrhills fl.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, I can practically see climatologists lined up around the block to read yet another denialist tome written by yet another pair of denialists.

Meanwhile, the CO2 builds, the mercury rises, and ice melts, and mankind inches ever closer to the brink...



Or in Al Gores eyes, THE BANK!

This guy has made millions off of Global warming!
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238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 11 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (970 hPa) located at 26.2S 176.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Last post enjoy your music taste Keeper and your a pretty good weather man/ geek. Well last post promise.


Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
rain is mixing with big snow flakes here in the D.C. metro just west of downtown, but its 35 degrees so im going to bed maybe we'll wake up with a little dusting and still snowing on and of throughout the day. I estimate about a 1/2 of accum.
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Last post enjoy your music taste Keeper and your a pretty good weather man/ geek. Well last post promise.
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maybe it is a raindrop iam not an expert
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
You are right about rain drop part but wind can move location of something on the lens especially time lapse no, but interesting just responding to your post.Link
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Rain drop on camera lens?
then why is it obsured by the clouds at the 27 mark and more to the left and nw of first sighting and it dont look like a rain drop
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
Rain drop on camera lens?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

This is part of what we got....

VIDEO: Dark storm brews over Sydney
anyone else spot the UFO in the vid
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
Bring it on, can't believe grass is starting to turn green doesn't happen very often in Feb. or March. Nite all.
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just east of naples fl a nice soaking rain with a occasional lightning to the south. much needed rain
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Thanks Grothar, going to hit the sack. Many times these lines die out over the mainland.Hope there are no surprises other than a little wind and thunder.Good night all. You've been in s. fl right Grothar so calling the intensity of these lines is difficult to say the least.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Noted, although I think you mean "northwestern counties". :P


whoops. my mistake.
that's what I get for doing weather stuff at 12:30am.
thanks :P
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The Key West radar looks a little scary for S.Fla. Starting to post some severe Thunderstorm warnings in front of advancing squall line.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Looks like another very narrow, but persistent lake michigan snow band setting up across Indiana's two northeastern-most counties. I remember either last winter, or the one before they had a similar band park itself over the South Bend area.


Lake effect snow warnings up... could drop 6 to 12 inches.
Noted, although I think you mean "northwestern counties". :P
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222. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.


During a cyclone warning class ll

Verify that your emergency kit contains all essential items
Store sufficient amount of drinking water
Continue to monitor cyclone bulletins on Radio/TV.
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Looks like another very narrow, but persistent lake michigan snow band setting up across Indiana's two northwestern-most counties. I remember either last winter, or the one before they had a similar band park itself over the South Bend area.


Lake effect snow warnings up... could drop 6 to 12 inches.
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Quoting Patrap:
Looks Like Trouble there Aussie.

This is part of what we got....

VIDEO: Dark storm brews over Sydney
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.