My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
Reader Comments
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Adrialana Beach is located on Nosy Be Island(NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar.
The center of Giovanna (red dot at latest reported position) is (JTWC)predicted to hit just south of Toamasina(TMM)...
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak*side of the storm.)
...then proceeds on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR). There's s'poseta be a webcam operating there at Hotel Manoir Rouge, but it seems to be out of order.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres)
* Spin is clockwise, the opposite to that in the NorthernHemisphere
What? Yeah it is.
Yeah, that was the only working webcam I found. And with this storm, I don't really think it makes all that much difference which side hits the city.
Link
Currently 5.74 million are in the radius of hurricane force winds, and most of them aren't exactly living in anything that could be considered up to hurricane code.
But looks could be deceiving.
Eye is symetrical, but the south side of the CDO looks pretty eroded right now on infrared, so it's unlikely to be a high-end cat 4 storm.
It is currently at 140 mph.
I was going to say 140 to 145, but whatever.
High end is 150 to 155, i.e. "borderline 5".
131 to 155 is 25mph range, including both ends.
145 is still exactly in the middle 5mph of the 25mph range of cat 4...
"Low end" cat 4 would be 131 to 135, etc.
I wasn't saying it wasn't cat 4.
Was saying it wasn't 150 or 155.
Sorry, I corrected my post. It DOES have winds of 140 mph.
Yes, I know.
After about 110mph, I can usually guess the speed within plus or minus 5mph from a still frame.
i just took the test
Result:
Your estimated Elo rating is
1080
In order to get to 155 to 160 range, it basicly needs a solid shield of yellow symetrically around the eye.
Then around 160 and above, it gets weird, because the "colder is stronger" thing does not seem to always hold true.
I've noticed some annular storms can maintain category 5 for a while even while having significantly warmer cloud tops, so the temperature is not always a perfect indicator.
Yes, take for example Katrina.
Meanwhile, in weather news: Giovanna is a beast! Madagascar better be prepared for this. She is definitely a solid Cat 4, potentially heading for Cat 5.
Link
Sun points a loaded gun at us
......As solar activity builds toward an expected peak in 2013, a double-barreled sunspot has been doubling in size over the past couple of days and now has the potential to shoot significant eruptions in our direction.
And in other news, it appears Fukushima is getting hot once again.
Link
....Concern is growing that the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan is no longer stable after temperature readings suggested one of its damaged reactors was reheating.
The plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), said the temperature inside No 2 reactor – one of three that suffered meltdown after last year's earthquake and tsunami – may have reached 82C on Sunday.........
But not to worry, from the end of the article.......
.........."We believe the state of cold shutdown is being maintained," said Junichi Matsumoto, a company spokesman. "Rather than the actual temperature rising, we believe there is high possibility that the thermometer concerned is displaying erroneous data."............
Weak on that southwestern side. Needs to strengthen that if it wants to become a Category 5.
Cyclone Giovanna 233000Z Feb 12
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 940.9mb/ 107.2kt
Raw T# 6.9
Adj T# 6.8
Final T# 5.7
Scene Type: EYE
----------------
probably going for cat 5
The best thing to do is assume the thermometer is slightly under-estimating the temperature, and just pump in more water more quickly.
I don't know what to tell these guys about job security. Several American experts in nuclear and related fields said they thought the reactors should have been concreted in.
It's unclear to my mind what the Japanese goal is at this point. It would seem to be ridiculous to try to keep pumping water over this thing for the next 10 to 20 years, particularly given the rate of spills of contaminated water already happening on the site.
Ate some dry air buffet, which is a good thing considering proximity.
Does that look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle to you, or is the system just too far out of range that reflectivity is getting screwy?
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak*side of the storm.)
...then proceed on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR)."
653 Xyrus2000 "...with this storm, I don't really think it makes all that much difference which side hits the city. ...Link... Currently 5.74 million are in the radius of hurricane force winds, and most of them aren't exactly living in anything that could be considered up to hurricane code."
There is that. But Madagascar needs all the breaks it can get facing this storm: it doesn't take much more than a major rainfall to cause a flooding&mudslides DISASTER there. Hurricane winds on top of major rain makes the situation far worse.
And if the main port gets knocked out, it's gonna be really difficult to get any humanitarian aid into the affected areas.
Yeah, it needs to wrap the convection around the SW side.
I never played at clubs, just an occasional game here and there. Haven't played for years, yet still got 1450.
Take that test with a grain of salt.
13 Feb 0000Z
The latter, thought it would not surprise me if however there was some slight deformation of the S eyewall at this time. Either way, this is a significant cyclone.
By Adam Mann February 10, 2012 | 7:58 pm
Note the Rig Lights in the Central and Western GOM
click image for loop
WaterVapor Loop
Link
I think the GOES satellite is out of order.
TCSSIO
A. 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 12/2330Z
C. 18.1S
D. 54.2E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...EYE EYE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5. WMG
EYE SURROUNDED BY B LACK GIVES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 YIELDING A DT
OF 5.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 17:33:00 S Lon : 54:03:08 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 941.1mb/107.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.0 4.5
The numbers will go back up in a minute when they get the center in the right position.
Viewing: 651 - 701
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