A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest
A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.
The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.
This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.
Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.
Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.
Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster
This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION
27-DEC-2011 15:21:56
51.86
95.82
6.6
6.9
SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2011 December 27 15:21:56 UTC
Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREENDownload Alert PDFWhat's this?
Tuesday, December 27th, 2011 at 15:21:56 UTC (23:21:56 local)
Location: 51.9° N, 95.8° EDepth: 6km
Event Id: USC0007DAX
Alert Version: 1
Created: 26 minutes, 50 seconds after earthquake.
THis is the current isobar map of the ATL
I do not understand why that 994 mb low in CnATL has hurricane force winds and that one to its northeast is developing hurricane force winds having lower BarPressure to 984 mb?
Magnitude 6.6 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
Tuesday, December 27, 2011 at 15:21:56 UTC
Enjoy your Tuesday.
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on December 27, 2011
The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
eastern Brunswick County in southeast North Carolina
southern New Hanover County in southeast North Carolina
* until 1245 PM EST
* at 1219 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 12 miles south
of Oak Island... or about 19 miles southeast of Shallotte... moving
northeast at 55 mph.
* Some locations in the warning include...
Long Beach...
Southport...
Boiling Spring Lakes...
Carolina Beach...
How far south are we talking here? That ridge looks like it is well into the Texas area. Perhaps some freezing temps for highs in SE Texas?
Shush David! ;-)
Iran threatens to block oil shipments in Strait of Hormuz if oil sanctions are imposed on the country
Posted on December 27, 2011
December 27, 2011 – TEHRAN – Iran’s first vice-president warned on Tuesday that the flow of crude will be stopped from the crucial Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if foreign sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, the country’s official news agency reported. “If they (the West) impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” IRNA quoted Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying. About a third of all sea-borne oil was shipped through the Strait in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and U.S. warships patrol the area to ensure safe passage. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have increased since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Nov. 8 that Tehran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has warned it will respond to any attack by hitting Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf, and analysts say one way to retaliate would be to close the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – together with nearly all the liquefied natural gas from lead exporter Qatar – must slip through a 4-mile (6.4 km) wide shipping channel between Oman and Iran. (Writing by Ramin Mostafavi, editing by Jane Baird) –Reuters
Photo Gallery: Disaster on Rugen Photos DPA
Forever immortalized in canvas by painter Caspar David Friedrich, the chalk cliffs on the German island of Rugen have been a major tourist draw for two centuries. In recent years, however, the cliffs have suffered from major erosion. Now, following a landslide that took down part of a cliff near the Kap Arkona cape on Monday afternoon, a 10-year-old girl is missing.
The landslide struck the girl, her mother and a sister. Emergency workers were able to rescue the seriously injured mother and lightly injured sister, who were taken to a hospital. More than 100 rescue workers continued through the night searching for the young girl, who they believe is buried beneath the chalk sludge. With low temperatures, local officials said the chances of finding the child alive were slim.
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The cliffs were immortalized in a famous painting by Caspar David Friedrich in the 1800s and have been a major tourist draw in Germany.
Link
WOW!
is there a point too this ???
Link
Ugh!
What is the timing for this storm?
Well it's about time! Bring on the cold baby!:)
Looks like starting Sunday but the main thrust of this storm looks like might be from Tuesday thru Thursday starting in the SE US then spreading North toward New England.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 27 2011
===================================
Cyclonic Storm "Thane" Over Southeast And Adjoining Southwest Bay Of Bengal
Cyclone Alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message
At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered near 12.5N 86.5E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal from 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 90.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean heat thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model prediction, it is expected to le in phase 5 during next 5 days. the phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence helps in west northwest movement of the system. The low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate. There is no significant change in wind shear during past 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 12.7N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.N 83.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 80.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
I thought it was just to encourage a good DOOM comment like.. & more birds are falling from the sky.
just his dandruff, give that man some head and shoulders.
Excerpt:
THEN COMETH THE 12Z/27 CANADIAN...HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 FROM DAY 4 ONWARD VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/27 ECMWF
WITH SPECTACULAR DIGGING/CLOSING OFF ALOFT NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY
EARLY TUE. THE SCORE IS EVEN WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF/00Z/27 ECENS MEAN PITTED AGAINST THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS
MEAN/UKMET. THE NEW 12Z/27 ECMWF PLAYS UP A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/ERN TROF TUE/WED BUT HAS THE SAME IDEA
AS PREVIOUSLY...FORECASTING THE A DAY 8 STORM FOR THE E COAST
INSTEAD OF DAY 7. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FINAL
GRAPHICS ARE STAYING UNCHANGED...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE BACK END
TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN.
I wouldn't know a snowblower if it bit me on the......well...at any rate...I'm unfamiliar with the term....
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