A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest
A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.
The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.
This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.
Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.
Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.
Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster
This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was living in the UK in the smog post war years and particularly in the late 50s.Some mornings hard to see the walls 3 ft from the front door of the house,things were so bad that the street lights above were invisible, as were feet, on some mornings.We followed the walls to school.
The soot/smoke that was belched by factory chimneys settled onto the snow and after sometimes weeks when the sun broke through the smog, blankets of snow were covered with a thick black coating of soot.
I spent 3 years of my first 5 years with bronchitis and asthma. X-Rays of my lungs show scars from this.
We no longer have this experience in the UK as a result of the "clean air act,"but it for sure will have been exported to other countries.
Maureen Scholes, a nurse at the Royal London Hospital in 1952, says the smog penetrated through clothes, blackening undergarments.
London's death rate shot up during the week of Dec. 5, 1952, with the smog killing thousands already weakened by respiratory illnesses.
Current Weather Conditions:
ORLANDO SANFORD AIRPORT, FL, United States (11:53am)
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Temperature 82.0 F (27.8 C)
Dew Point 61.0 F (16.1 C)
Small cyclones forming over open sea during the cold season within polar or arctic air masses are called "polar lows." Typically several hundred kilometers in diameter, and often possessing strong winds, polar lows tend to form beneath cold upper-level troughs or lows when frigid arctic air flows southward over a warm body of water.
Polar lows last on average only a day or two. They can develop rapidly, reaching maximum strength within 12 to 24 hours of the time of formation. They often dissipate just as quickly, especially upon making landfall. In some instances several may exist in a region at the same time or develop in rapid succession.
In satellite imagery polar lows show characteristic spiral or comma shaped patterns of deep clouds, sometimes with an inner "eye" similar to those seen in tropical cyclones. Convective cloud bands occupy the surroundings (see figure below). Analysis of aircraft and radiosonde data collected during field experiments reveals that polar lows may possess warm cores. This finding, coupled with their appearance in satellite imagery, has prompted some investigators to refer to polar lows as "arctic hurricanes," although they seldom, if ever, possess hurricane strength winds.
Polar lows are difficult to predict even with current high resolution and high performing operational numerical models, because they usually occur in remote oceanic regions where data are too sparse to define the model initial state on a sufficiently fine scale. However, present-day models can depict synoptic-scale patterns favorable to the development of the smaller scale systems, allowing forecasters to use the predictions in conjunction with satellite imagery and conventional observations to make subjective forecasts of their occurrence.
Current:
Temperature: 87.4 °F
Dew Point: 60.9 °F
Humidity: 41%
Wind Gust: 3.8mph
Wind: ESE - - SE
Pressure: 29.91in
Precipitation: 0.00in
"London's death rate shot up during the week of Dec. 5, 1952, with the smog killing thousands already weakened by respiratory illnesses."
Thank you for that bit of history. We had to wear torn up sheets over our mouths when going outside and the corridors in long buildings were dim with fog indoors some days.During the war no bombers found our town as the factories made so much smoke it was virtually invisible from the air.
Having said that,it is plain to see that this pollution has been going on for a long time, now as Skye pointed out there are all the other gases to add into the equation, plus possible churning of the newly to be exposed. Arctic sea.
We are probably burning more coal now globally than ever and what goes up also probably must come down, possibly mixed into all sorts of new cocktails.
This Arctic thing is probably going to be the road to hell once it gets out of hand nothings going to stop its effects on the worlds climate.
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I find polar lows to be very cool features.
Here's one that looks like a face.
On Hacking matters: What we knew about... China is behind this... Interesting
New Evidence Suggests China's Hacking Into US Drones Using Adobe Reader And Internet Explorer
A rash of new clues surrounding the Sykipot computer virus having its way with the U.S. drone fleet suggests the malware originated in China, and explains how it has been used.
Mathew J. Schwartz of Information Week reports the virus appears to have been designed with the sole purpose of stealing UAV data using a "zero-day" vulnerability in Adobe Reader.
A zero-day attack is launched using a vulnerability unknown to a software's developer and shared among attackers who exploit the fault before a patch is put in place.
Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-22/new s/30545577_1_virus-pdf-files-adobe-reader#ixzz1hO3 OWUlM
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A cyclone warning has been issued for the area between Cape Don to Milingimbi. Residents have been asked to make final preparations or identify a public emergency shelter, as gale force winds could begin within 24 hours.
The Bureau of Meteorology says gale force winds of upto 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop late Saturday or early Sunday....
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To donate to the International Rescue Committee and help Weather Underground fight hunger in East Africa, please visit our IRC donation page. All donations are tax deductible, but you have to use that page so your donation is added to our running tally. And of course, read on...
Weather Underground has teamed up with the International Rescue Committee to help raise funds for the hard hit region of the Horn of Africa, which has been struck by drought and devastating famine. Through various weather-related tragedies over the past several years, the Weather Underground community has been fabulous at offering support via charitable donations. We are asking you, that same community, to step up once again to help assist in the rescue effort currently ongoing in the Horn of Africa. Please, if you can donate at least $10 to this donation drive, visit the IRC/Weather Underground page hereLink
It does. LOL!
Sure. And official NWS senors that are nowhere near an airport will continue to rise as well, just as they've done for the past many decades in response to the astronomically vast amounts of CO2 we're pumping into the environment.
You didn't specify where in Alabama you were, but it looks to have been a pretty warm December for the greatest part. Montgomery has averaged nine degrees above normal over the past 11 days, while Birmingham has averaged eight degrees over normal.
Once the storm picked up speed and headed east, it set record snowfall as well as record low temperatures. In Fort Logan, Montana, the recorded temperature was around -61°F and in Monterey, Virginia, -29°F. In Cape May, NJ, about 34 inches of snow fell, and 20.5 inches of snow in Washington, D.C. The storm caused no reported deaths. But by the end of it all, Cuba reported heavy frost which ruined some agriculture and the port of New Orleans looked like a winter wonderland.
Read more: http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-worst-blizzards-u-s- history.php#ixzz1hOKcxG6Q
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
Tropical Low 04U
4:00 AM CST December 24 2011
===================================
At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low 04U (998 hPa) located at 10.7S 131.5E or 130 km west northwest of Croker Island and 205 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS
The low is expected to develop but remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 24 to 48 hours.
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop between Cape Don and Milingimbi and the Tiwi Islands later today or early Sunday.
GALES may develop later in coastal areas between Dundee Beach and Cape Don, including Darwin, and between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Don to Milingimbi and the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Cape Don to Milingimbi and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Cape Don, including Darwin, and Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 10.4S 131.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 11.2S 131.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 13.1S 132.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Additional Information
======================
Darwin radar indicates a mid level center north of the Tiwi Islands, whilst surface data indicates a weak surface low in the vicinity of Cape Don. The advised location is an intermediate solution - assuming that the mid level rotation descends to the surface.
The system has consolidated convection near the mid level center level centr, and there are signs that an upper high is forming. A 30 knot easterly surge propagated to the south overnight, and appears to have provided impetus. The monsoon flow to the NW is also beginning to wrap into the circulation.
Model guidance continues to be varied. GFS initial positions are all too far to the east and the subsequent rapid translation to the SE is a consequence of this. Latest UKMET and ACCESS-T have quite reasonable solutions, in that the analyses and 6 hour recent positions are in agreement with observations.
A case can be made for DT of 2.0 - however surface observations continue to suggest the circulation- at least on the southern side, is quite weak at 10 to 15 knots. Although the presentation looks quite impressive at present it is likely that the diurnal progression will see the system reach TC intensity in 12 to 36 hours if it remains over water.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
The blizzard was definitely a costly one in more ways than one; killing 353 people, $66.7 million in damages, causing 1,000,000 to be without electricity, and impacting almost half of the U.S., 22 states in total.
That's really close to here..
Data shown may be measurements of air collected approximately weekly in glass containers and returned to GMD for analysis or averages from air sampled semi-continuously at a GMD baseline observatory. Symbols are thought to be regionally representative. A smooth curve and long-term trend may be fitted to the representative measurements when sufficient data exist. Data shown in ORANGE are preliminary. All other data have undergone rigorous quality assurance and are freely available from GMD, CDIAC, and WMO WDCGG.
Look at the gray line & the slope.. that shouldn't peak until after the first of the year. We may have tipped.
According to Mark Auliya, the corpse of 32-year-old Mangyan, Lantod Gumiliu, was recovered from the belly of a 7-metre (23 ft) reticulated python on Mindoro, probably in January, 1998.
LOL down lode Google Chrome and get rid of IE
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Family: Pythonidae (pythons)
Species: Python reticulatus
Range: Southeast Asia
Diet: Birds and mammals
Avg. Adult Size: 18 feet
Max recorded length: over 32 feet
The reticulated python is arguably the longest snake in the world, with an average adult size of 6 meters (18 feet) long. This giant snake makes its home in the steamy rainforests of Southeast Asia. It is an ambush predator, and is well suited for that role with its exceptional camouflage pattern (see photo above).
One of the most striking features (pun intended) about this big snake are its eyes. Like many nocturnal snakes, the reticulated python has vertical pupils. But it also has bright orange irises. The eyes of the "retic" enable the giant snake to catch prey at night, usually by ambushing its prey and constricting until the prey stops moving.
The reticulated python is a big snake all right. With its excellent camouflage and hunting ability, it's a marvel of nature by any yardstick.
Read more: http://www.reptileknowledge.com/articles/article17 .php#ixzz1hObINPqS
Story about a family getting buried in their car for two days on.. wow. Get those winter car supplies in order..
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