Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.
Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:
"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."
Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.
Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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nop
You are correct; there have now been five decent-sized quakes off the northeast coast of Japan in the past two hours: a 6.6, a 5.2, a 5.5, a 6.2, and a 5.6.
Shhh.
Here, knock yourself out. ;-)
A blog killer.
Easy neighbor...
What does the A stand for?
Is that better? LOL
No, that's quite okay. ;)
Sorry Doomcasters, NOLA is STILL standing!
I like your positive outlook. I was thinking more like 4-5, with 2 hurricanes
This sort of thing is not normally, normal, after all the times we had with discussing this back in March, April and its still going on.
If it gets out of hand and they are not out of the potential hurricane/typhoon season yet then they might have a whole bunch of new problems to cope with.
i believe the reporting features may have fallen victim to abuse which in turn has caused most of our own problems on the blogs too quick with the trigger i reckon i myself is grayed out when set to show average but hey it comes with the program
many more i figure have been taken out that way as well to quick to minus and report after all we are our own self police with current features and we should sometimes not be so fast with the trigger after all if we all minus and report each other eventually there would be no one left and i think thats whats happening
Juan,, 1985
dats why.
But I do lub me some sugarcane.
Are you for real? We still have half of September to go with October's little peak and all of November.
Two and a half months seems like enough time to see at least 2-3 hurricanes.
I want to see the season go past even the Greek alphabet.
Would be pretty awesome...Bet it would an amazing season then, huh?
at least :)
Anybody think we'll still see a Cat. 5?
Possibly the biggest problem humanity has ever had to deal with, Awesome to say the least.
If its true then the future direction of all nations and commercial existence will be in jeopardy.
Might just be caused by an increase in the burning of carbon based compounds in an oxygen rich atmosphere, leading to an increase in CO2.
The rest might just be history,one day.
that's not a choice...sorry :)
I like that one too. plus 1
Point is, we'll probably have Ophelia and maybe even Philippe next week. We're well on course for Greek letters this year.
Usually, but those with opposing or differing opinions will let you know theirs, too.
Of course, but give something to support it. A map, a weather model, something.
If you don't have anything to back it up, indicate it is just a hunch.
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