Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.
Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:
"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."
Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.
Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Also, they don't seem to be poofing this time around.
:)
Seriously, thanks Mr Nea
Speaking of smoke, I heard they take cigarette breaks near the Mauna Loa sampling station. :(
I would need to see that happening to actually believe it.
That's pretty slick. Where did you buy that? What brand is it?
At 348 hours the two hurricanes are fujiwaraing
I figured if I'm up this late I might as well see how the run turns out.
If two hurricanes get so close to Florida like that JFV might have a heart attack. XD
Yep, it keeps sending this area of disturbed weather to our area, it isn't 97L.
I've heard of him but don't know of him. Do I want to?
At 384hrs the model shows some rain falling over Texas, but not nearly enough.
Nah. You're better off not knowing of him.
That's just Bourbon Street.
Here is our potential problem.
Old tires piled in a marsh and set on fire are not the same as a marsh fire.
very odd.
Was there about six weeks ago....Ol gal I took and brother's girlfriend were remarking how the smell was. I told them....yeah...but you will miss the smell when we go home!! Both have since remarked that they miss the smell and cant wait to get back!! NOLA ROCKS!!!
You all were too loaded to care.
There is no place you can go to escape it.I'm praying for a wind change before it reaches me.
I see you are a fairly new poster as well, so welcome. As summer ends and hurricane season slows down, pointless bickering and trolling goes up big time, but here is still room for honest discussion, so stick around, atmospheric waves on the planetary scale are very interesting to me. Hopefully you can show us all a thing or two about what you are studying in the near future
Hiya Frank!!
You live there....Understandable.....We only get over there every couple months....We MISS it!! Definately a "One of a Kind" smell!!
Most of Europe smells like that.
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
img src="
Really??
Well, now that I know that....no need to go there....will stick with NOLA!!
Yeah.
LOL at the one heading south.
Yeah me too. I'm just glad that the current bickering doesn't involve me!
POOF!
Who passed?
Congrats JFV and others, you forced the experts off the blog so you can invade. At least you have something to do. Are you happy now?
Classic BAMM.
Some parts of Paris smell of drains, but Europe as a whole? That's not my experience.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2011/09/anot her_nobel_prize_winning_ph.html
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