No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My avatar tells the story.
~ 9/11/01 ~ NEVER FORGET
NHC trusted the last Vortex run so much... they only split the difference. HH is inbound for another one.
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.
That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....
4-10GbE (bonded) connected to 18 spindle 18 TB RAID storage, 15k RPM SAS, 800 MB/s read rate
44 slave servers with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 24 GB ram, each
All servers attached by 40 Gb/s fabric interconnect
180 TB tape library, SCSI attached, for archival
(I could go on, over 700 processors cores in 80 servers in 3 clusters.)
12 hours of battery UPS plus a 8 MW generator. 2 entirely redundant chilled water Lieberts that can each keep up with the heat both connected to 2 entirely redundant cooling towers.
Making this weather related, this equipment is used for weather observation QC, satellite data processing, atmospheric, wave, and storm surge modeling.
;-)
yes the could be is what i was refering to
I don't know, but he/she is right...Both blogs have been banned.
:\
After Irene, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop...
I think he/she is right as well, all of P451's posts today have vanished.
i do understand your concern Baha i would be also if i was sitting where you are
Maybe it was something "behind the scenes".... Oh well...
Considering their blogs were banned? Most likely a permanent ban.
Here in the Shenandoah Valley of VA the sun is shining, the grass is growing (been mostly dead) and I am slowly waking up. Looks to be a beautiful day.
The closest point calculation for Provo has dropped from 240 miles to 217, hopefully the swing won't continue.
I will have to disagree, and note that 2005 after Ophelia there was a bit of a lull. A lot of models are saying that yet another CV system will attempt to develop, and perhaps a system in the Caribbean too.
Between Maria and our next storm, I give it 5 days max. MJO coming back in our basin.
-- Back to the weather --
Now, today, Maris is looking like a TS. And a TS on its way to Hurricane Status.
my ban was olny 45hrs lol and i could not get on the hole blog site for that time
but can you play Minesweeper on it? ;)
CMC @ 144 hours:
ECMWF @ 144 hours:
GFS @ 144 hours:
NGP @ 144 hours:
she is moving w? you mean
Whatever you say doc..
i wounder where it will head off too
(i.e. No mouse, no graphics whatsoever.)
But, conducting any system admin work on these is very, very similar to playing minesweeper. Only there is no new game keyboard shortcut.
or Stormtop is you like lol
I was figuring with the more Nerly track over the islands Maria would stay out of our hair.
Those cold fronts you mentioned, if a storm forms in the western Caribbean this year, which is likely if you look at the conditions, in October. It could be forced towards the US in a similar manner to October landfalling storms. We are not out of the woods yet, Irene should have been the big hint that this season isn't a tranquil one for the USA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME.
And surprising how little rainfall has come from it. Probably so little rainfall so as to avoid any landslide/mudslide issues.
Cool!
hbd tu Dr. M
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╱┗━━╯╱╱╱╱┗┛╱┗┛╱ Gone but never forgotten ♥.
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