No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL - Yes, I know. I was just making an attempt at humor.
Humor - 0
Logic - 1
DRAT!
Good evening young Jedi.
Paladin's first name was Bobby.
And Paladin was not his real name.
It was the nickname given to him by Smoke before he died.
Bobby was an ex-Army Officer, a West Point Graduate, and a polyglot.
A polyglot, much like yourself young Jedi. :)
Not sure what you mean by that....is the website that Twincomanche references not a respected source of information?
Come on, we all know it was Wire! Remember his card read: Wire Paladin
San Francisco. :)
Add 2% to your time for every 5 degrees warmer between 60 and 75F, then double that impact for each additional 5 degrees up to 85. Running guru Jeff Galloway puts it this way:
55-60 degrees - 1% - 8:00 becomes 8:05
60-65 degrees - 3% - 8:00 becomes 8:15
65-70 degrees - 5% - 8:00 becomes 8:25
70-75 degrees - 7% - 8:00 becomes 8:35
75-80 degrees - 12% - 8:00 becomes 8:58
80-85 degrees - 20% - 8:00 becomes 9:35
Above 85 degrees - Forget it ... run for fun and not time
Add 1 second per mile for every percentage point the relative humidity exceeds 65%
from :http://marathonman.typepad.com/marathoning_matter s/2009/01/rules-of-thumb-for-running-a-marathon.ht ml
That's a light wind, but it's enough to drop apparent temp ("real feel") by that much.
Guadeloupe radar
Of course, it's only 1/2 over and the NW Caribbean / Gomex 'cane peaks have yet to show their hand. But so far into the Cape Verde season, the strong hurricane theories aren't looking good.
We are not in a neutral El Nino. We are actually now in a weak La Nina.
Thanks for your input....really did not mean to waste anyone's time.......thought this was the best time to ask a "somewhat" off tropical storm question since it was slow in here.
I think I have seen it done before, but I'm not known for having a good memory.
You didn't waste any time. I think all he's doing is expressing his opinion about that particular scale. Your question was great and welcomed. Always feel free to ask.
My location : st martin island. 18N 63W approximatly
Why do the HHs flight level winds seem lower than the surface winds? It's supposed to be the other way around. No?
Levi32
You didn't waste any time. I think all he's doing is expressing his opinion about that particular scale. Your question was great and welcomed. Always feel free to ask.
Thanks....could not quite figure out if it was the topic I asked about, or one of the responses that were a waste of time...:-)
It will probably track west then head out to sea...
Of course, it's much easier to contrast them; even in their points of similarity there is intrinsic difference.
Same with tragedies on the scale of 9-11 and Hurricane Katrina. There are similarities, sure; however, the differences make it hard to look at these disasters and class them together in any specific, significant way. This is actually also a good word when it comes to tropical cyclones. People, for example, who expected Katrina to be more or less a repeat of Hurricane Camille were rather surprised.
CLICK HERE FOR MY HURRICANE DONNA TRIBUTE
mark
8.0n/28.00w
Landfall loop will be this one: Link
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