No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index
And there goes our update for the day.... lol... he prolly got ambushed and carted off for fun and games.... lol
4:03 PM GMT op 11 september 2011
Thanks!
Jeff
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JEFF!
Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.
Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.
------------------------------
I notice most of those showing Newfoundland getting the full brunt of Maria. Ewwww.
Must feel kinda peculiar... having a day of celebration next to a day of an obvious subdued nature.
ok
By no means is the northern Gulf of Mexico closed for business. A storm could form in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and move northward towards the Gulf coast. Not sure if you consider Florida part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but we are entering their season for tropical cyclones.
(and I know Shen was kidding...)
(From the W at ~ 23.0 mph)
there they are
Happy Birthday Glitter Graphics
May only good things strike you this year..
oh happy B day dr m
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe.
Thanks for all you do.
May gentle weather blow through.
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe
How are the winds?
Her coc is visible on this.
SFMR decided to quit out on us, but this was recorded on the SFMR with a WNW wind.
27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
She still made it rain...a little. lol
Thx. CybrTeddy
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 15:33:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°22'N 64°26'W (19.3667N 64.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (58°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,481m (4,859ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:53:00Z
Not likely higher than ~7 feet above normal, at a singular peak, with this one, though. *Could* be significant for some coastal folks, there, but certainly not spectacular.
With this profile, probably a wider area of ~4 feet above normal. IIRC, tidal range there is rather small, as well.
I hope you are correct. Looking for some wave action and fun up here in Panhandle. I agree that lower Peninsula is at risk. With similar weather patterns, caribbean storms seem to travel sharply west, ala Nate, for Mexico or traveled due through the Florida straights, ala Wilma. If you say one cold still punch through, cool. I had hoped the current front would lose its grip, but bummed about the new cold front. Maybe it won't come so far South.
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
Get your Florida beachfront properties while they're still affordable ;-)
Haha, I think I kind of understood what you are saying. Another deep and unseasonably cold front could mean storms will remain well South or block GOM entrance. Its seems like in years past, such occurrences have meant the end of fun so to speak. Hope not and I hate cold weather.
06Z NOGAPS showing the same system
Viewing: 1351 - 1391
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index