Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1801. ncstorm 8:54 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8469

1803. interstatelover7165 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
000 WTNT34 KNHC 222051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * ALL OF HAITI FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H... AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1804. WxLogic 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
SE FL is in the cone... that uncertainty will surely increase or decrease by 00Z. Member Since: 14 augustus 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

1805. kylejourdan2006 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS. Member Since: 18 juli 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521

1806. MyrtleCanes 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5: yep... 100 MPH winds as far as Philly. My grandpa (not alive anymore)remembered the storm as being the worst ever. hazel had hurricane conditions in Toronto, ON Member Since: 13 mei 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

1807. ncstorm 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8469

1808. Drakoen 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting StarnzMet: Drak and MississippiWx do you think the chances are increasing for a US recurve? Personally, I believe the current setup is favoring just that. I'm just waiting on the 00z runs before I give a final judgment. Good question to ask after tonight's 00z runs. Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1809. BahaHurican 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting treehuggingsister: That's how we felt here the year before you all. Completely forgotten and we were devastated, just blasted. (Our little town/county and billions in damages?) Then we took a direct hit from Dennis the very next summer. One, two punch arooney, but took care of things ourselves as best we could out here. Insult to injury, when Katrina hit, we had hundreds of folks still in FEMA trailer parks and living with relatives who were thrown off waiting lists for housing because some dweeb in D.C. drew a 200 mile circle around NOLA and gave ALL those people priority for government housing. Like nothing had ever happened to us. I think some of the FEMA reaction to NOLA was because there had been some governmental decisions that helped to create the disaster. Where other locations in other storms may have suffered just because of geography, there were, from my understanding of what I read prior to Katrina, some political "stuff" that should have been dealt with but wasn't. Your relatives and other hurricane victims in other parts of the GoM also became lower priority in part because Katrina was a horror situation that nobody expected to deal with and everybody wanted cleared away as quickly as possible. And even the "priority" cases from Katrina had difficulty with housing after 2005. That's why, as far as you can, you should be trying to help yourself. When you can't do anything for yourself, you are basically left to the whim of fate and the vagaries of charity. And while people are well-meaning for the most part, that doesn't always get your problem solved. Sure hope I don't have too bad of a time with this latest storm, to the point where I find myself completely dependent on outside agencies for assistance. However, you never know what life will bring. Member Since: 25 oktober 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17673

1810. HurricaneHunterJoe 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting Patrap: Colder and Higher Left turn Clyde....LOL Member Since: 18 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1811. nigel20 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting charlottefl: This is interesting: Is this suggesting that the troughs will not dig that deep down? Member Since: 6 november 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4544

1812. CaicosRetiredSailor 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
The lower moving image in post 1720 , posted at 4:21 by P451 shows the "outflow boundary" which crossed Providenciales as a squall line giving me a 55 mph recorded wind gust Member Since: 12 juli 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133

1813. interstatelover7165 8:55 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
00 WTNT24 KNHC 222050 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * ALL OF HAITI HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1814. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
09L/H/I/C1 RI FLAG (FLAG) MARK 19.35N68.17W ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1815. treehuggingsister 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The beach is nice down here...That is where I go when I go to the beach. Lots of unwanted creatures in the water though (i.e. Sharks, Jellyfish, Stingrays). Oh, NC beaches are famous for their wildlife, aren't they? But TONS of sharks' teeth! We always went to Onslow Beach, being Marines, or rode the ferry out to Hammock. Topsail was quite a drive, but I was the 'local artist' at a little store in Holly Ridge, so I knew a lot of folks down there. Loved it. Member Since: 18 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188

1816. ncstorm 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting kylejourdan2006: IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS. ECWMF brings it right to wilmington.. Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8469

1817. interstatelover7165 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
000 WTNT44 KNHC 222052 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS. DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1818. CybrTeddy 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Irene's working out that dry air, that gap of convection is closing in at the CDO has cloudtops of -80C over the eyewall. Based on that, I wouldn't be shocked if the recon finds at least lower pressures. Member Since: 8 juli 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20262

1819. MyrtleCanes 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
have a hard believing Irene will weaken north of the bahamas over the gulf stream Member Since: 13 mei 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

1820. interstatelover7165 8:56 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
000 FONT14 KNHC 222051 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 1 6 13 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 2 7 5 TROPICAL STORM 14 11 12 13 18 23 38 HURRICANE 86 87 87 86 79 64 44 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 66 52 41 36 34 30 28 HUR CAT 2 17 26 29 28 25 19 10 HUR CAT 3 3 8 14 17 16 13 6 HUR CAT 4 X 1 3 4 4 2 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 100KT 100KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 32(45) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 28(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 12(41) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 11(36) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) 8(48) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 4(44) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 34(53) 4(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 4(56) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 28(59) 1(60) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 13(49) 1(50) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) X(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) 1(26) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 16(79) X(79) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 18(46) 1(47) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 1(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 59(81) 4(85) X(85) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 4(54) X(54) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 40(74) 2(76) X(76) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 2(45) X(45) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 56(81) 10(91) X(91) 1(92) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20(62) X(62) X(62) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 46(73) 8(81) X(81) X(81) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) MAYAGUANA 34 2 56(58) 27(85) 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MAYAGUANA 50 X 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 42 53(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GRAND TURK 50 1 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GRAND TURK 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 83 10(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PUERTO PLATA 50 16 26(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PUERTO PLATA 64 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

1821. HurricaneHunterJoe 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out Member Since: 18 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1822. swampdawg 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Arrived home from vacation in Puerto Rico on Saturday night. Got out of there just in time.....and that's some good timing folks. Made that reservation one week out. Member Since: 1 juli 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

1823. 7544 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
wow cat 3 on andros island se fla better get ready imo and could see watches in the am if this new cone holds Member Since: 6 mei 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1824. RitaEvac 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011: 2 things have to happen the a/b high has to shift over the eastern gom and the high over texas pulls back nw towards the 4 corner area...then texas has irene in there back yard.. RAIN for TX folks, you've heard it hear first... lol Member Since: 14 juli 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

1825. bohonkweatherman 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Taz has learned alot on this blog, I am impressed. Member Since: 5 juli 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1826. Tazmanian 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting kylejourdan2006: IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS. INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS thats not good Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

1827. NCSaint 8:57 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting Grandpato4: Yes, Wednesday is my decision day I believe. Please just bear in mind, sir that a landfall anywhere between Charleston to Wilmington at the projected track angles is going to put the full storm surge into SouthEast facing Atlantic Beach. If any of those landfalls seems likely, you really need to not be there Member Since: 13 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1828. Chicklit 8:58 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
LinkCaribWVLoop Irene ~5 p.m. Monday ...A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT... NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY ... AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY... ---- Avila NHC Member Since: 11 juli 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1829. AllStar17 8:58 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe: HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out ? That aircraft can not and will not be going into the storm. That one is just sampling the atmosphere ahead of Irene. Member Since: 29 juni 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1830. HurricaneHunterJoe 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting Jax82: Visible that cant be 290 motion?? Member Since: 18 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1831. HadesGodWyvern 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Irene is getting close to T4.5 which is at or between 75-85 knot range on the Dvorak scale. 2011AUG22 20:15:00 T4.2 985 Dvorak analysis =============== Final T number 4.2 Adjusted T number 4.3 Raw T number 4.3 Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36689

1832. Walshy 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting ncstorm: ECWMF brings it right to wilmington.. If the trend does not stop I think Irene could recurve out altogether. Member Since: 17 mei 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618

1833. MIKEYZ 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
These models change their minds faster then my wife. Still concerned here in Wrightsville Beach NC Member Since: 6 september 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

1834. Stormchaser2007 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Member Since: 9 juni 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1835. DookiePBC 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!! Member Since: 1 september 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 433

1836. Tazmanian 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe: HH out dropping dropsondes in the atmosphere northwest of Irene, on the way to check her out nop thats NOAA plan the recon plan is done for now but sould be going back up soon Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

1837. atmoaggie 8:59 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting afwxguy86: It won't be on the 18Z run. The 18Z run is already being completed, it will be in the 00Z run. Most certainly was. Weather balloons are launched ~18 UTC, take about 50 minutes to get up to 11 mb, and data is constantly received back at the ground station. GFS runs in assimilation mode for 3 hours, so any observations that come in until 21 UTC get included. And GFS had considerably more Fixed land station raobs than usual for 18 UTC: (Though, I have no idea why so many on August 4...Emily?) Member Since: 16 augustus 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1838. bigwes6844 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Wait so u mean it will get in the GOM Member Since: 25 juli 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1399

1839. JNCali 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Anyone seen Levi yet? I know he was busy earlier today... Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

1840. Drakoen 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Atmo, can you post the link to the 18z upper air data from the launches when they come in? Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1841. duajones78413 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011: 2 things have to happen the a/b high has to shift over the eastern gom and the high over texas pulls back nw towards the 4 corner area...then texas has irene in there back yard.. Irene in Texas? Is this a joke? Member Since: 30 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

1842. HurricaneHunterJoe 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting rmbjoe1954: Is this what the GFDL has taken into consideration? I don't know,ask the pro's Member Since: 18 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

1843. Orcasystems 9:00 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Member Since: 1 oktober 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1844. ncstorm 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
We currently have a tornado warning here.. Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8469

1845. bobdcousy 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I refuse to put any trust in the NAM models as long as they're initializing the storm as a 1008 mb low. Member Since: 30 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

1847. nrtiwlnvragn 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: No, they surely are in 18 Z GFS (given it's 3 hour assimilation cycle).A better handle on mid and upper level conditions. Better tracking of the trough, etc. Will also give better, more thorough initial condition data to the 06 Z and 18 Z GFS model. (We usually only have this data at 0 and 12 UTC.) And, as GFDL and HWRF use GFS for synoptic initial and boundary conditions, hopefully a better handle on conditions in those, as well. The 18Z data went into the NAM, I'm sure it will be in the GFS Member Since: 23 september 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

1848. Bluestorm5 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
22% chance of tropical storm winds for Raleigh this far out? Yikes. Member Since: 1 augustus 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3660

1849. macrobiologist 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I call Irene moving east of the Outer Banks and missing the East Coast. Member Since: 14 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

1851. lilbitt 9:01 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
what ever happen to i think the name was storm something can't remember the last part of the name but he was always on here i think he worked for some weather station. miss his forecast. Member Since: 4 maart 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

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