Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011

+30

Hurricane Irene strengthened into the season's first Atlantic hurricane at 5am EDT this morning as the eye moved over San Juan, Puerto Rico, and crossed into the ocean just north of the island. Overnight, Irene held its own as the eye passed over the most mountainous portion of Puerto Rico, the El Yunque region. Winds in the higher mountains likely reached Category 2 strength, 96 - 110 mph, according to measurements from the San Juan Terminal Doppler Radar, and the hurricane pounded the island with damaging winds and flooding rains, resulting in widespread tree damage and power failures that hit 800,000 people. The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87" of rain, as of 9am AST. Tropical storm conditions affected the Virgin Islands, with St. Thomas recording sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 67 mph, and 4.03" of rain as of 6am AST today. At 7am EDT, the ship Horizon Trader measured sustained northeast winds of 69 mph and wave heights of 11.5 feet at 19°N, in the northern eyewall of Irene. Latest observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Irene is slowly intensifying, with a central pressure of 989 mb observed at 9:42am EDT. The eyewall is not fully formed yet, with a gap on the south side. This gap will need to close off before the hurricane can undergo rapid intensification.

Figure 1. A direct hit: the center of Hurricane Irene passed directly over the Terminal Doppler Radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico between 4am and 5am AST this morning.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models show good agreement that Irene will pass along the north coast of Hispaniola today, but just a slight wobble in Irene's track to take it farther offshore--or push it onshore, over the mountains--will have major impacts on the ultimate path and strength of the hurricane. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the northwest by Wednesday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast, arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.) NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart gave some good reasons in this morning's discussion to favor a track close to the east coast of Florida, but just offshore. Last years' worst performing major the model, the NOGAPS, predicts that Irene will pass out to sea, missing the Southeast U.S. coast. Keep in mind that the average error of a 4-day forecast from NHC is 200 miles, and just a small deviation in the path of a storm moving roughly parallel to the coast will make a huge difference in where it ultimately makes landfall. The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 29 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Satellite loops show that Irene is steadily growing in size, which will protect the storm against major disruption by its passage along the north shore of Hispaniola today. The storm is lacking much development on its southwest side, where dry air is interfering with development. This dry air may help keep southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from receiving more than 3 - 6 inches of rain. There is at least a 30% chance that passage of the eye over Hispaniola will reduce Irene to a tropical storm tonight and into Tuesday. Due to Hispaniola blocking inflow of moist air from the south, Irene will likely compensate by building an even larger region of heavy thunderstorms to the north, offshore. Thus, when Irene's center finally moves well away from the coast on Tuesday, it will be a bigger storm, with the potential to spread hurricane conditions over a wider area later in the week when it intensifies. One limiting factor for intensification may be in the upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane is lifting a huge amount of air from the surface to the upper atmosphere, and all that mass has to be efficiently transported away in order for the hurricane to intensify. Right now, upper level outflow is only well-established to the north and east, and the forecast outflow pattern for the coming five days is only moderately favorable. Overall, I think the official NHC forecast of a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday is the right one, though Irene could easily be a Category 2 or Category 4 storm.

Irene's impact on the Dominican Republic
Heavy rains from Irene have already reached the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, where Punta Cana has seen wind gusts up to 29 mph this morning. The northeast coast of the country near Samana will receive the worst of Irene's wrath, with sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph and gusts above hurricane force likely to cause widespread tree damage and power outages today. Passage along the coast of the island may weaken Irene to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and wind damage in Puerto Plata may be less severe than at Samana. The capital of Santo Domingo will see lesser winds, perhaps 30 - 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. The main danger to the Dominican Republic will be Irene's torrential rains, which are likely to reach 20 inches in some mountainous regions, causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Irene's impact on Haiti
No nation in the Caribbean is more vulnerable to hurricanes than Haiti, whose northern reaches are expected to receive torrential rains of 5 - 10 inches from Irene. During the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on Haiti, leaving over 1,000 people dead or missing. The path and intensity of Hurricane Irene are very similar to that of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which dumped 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives, the nation's 4th largest city. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes, and Irene's rains are capable of causing a similar disaster. During 2004 and again this year, ocean temperatures off the coast of Haiti were 1 - 1.5°C above average, one of the top five values seen in the past 100 years. Since more water vapor evaporates into the air from record warm waters, the potential for devastating floods from hurricanes is much higher in these situations. However, satellite images of Jeanne show the storm had much more moisture on its south side when it hit Hispaniola than Irene currently has, so I am hopeful that Irene's rains will not be as intense as Jeanne's were.

Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Jeanne of 2004, which followed a path very similar to what is expected from Hurricane Irene along the north coast of Hispaniola. Irene is not going to do a big loop like Jeanne did, though.

As bad as the hurricanes of 2004 and 2008 were, the January 2010 earthquake was far worse. Up to 316,000 may have been killed, and the capital city of Port-Au-Prince was devastated, leaving over 1.5 million people living under tarps during the 2010 hurricane season. Fortunately, Hurricane Tomas missed making a direct hit on Haiti, and Haiti escaped major loss of life during the 2010 hurricane season. This year, approximately 595,000 Haitians still live underneath tarps outdoors thanks to the earthquake, and these unfortunate people will be at risk of being swept away by flash flooding from Irene's torrential rains. However, Port-Au-Prince lies to the south of where Irene's main rains will fall, and I doubt the earthquake refugee camps will suffer from a major flooding disaster.

Figure 3. Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011. The cholera epidemic surged out of control after Hurricane Tomas dumped heavy rains on Haiti on November 4, 2010, with hospitalizations increasing by a factor of three for over a month. Over 3% of all people who contracted cholera died after Tomas' rains. However, sanitation and medical care improved in the following months, and the death rate fell by a factor of five to 0.7% by the summer of 2011. Another surge in cholera cases occurred in June 2011, doubling after heavy rainy season rains occurred. Cholera deaths doubled during the surge, but the death rate remained constant at 0.7%. Image credit: Pan American Health Organization.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. Cholera is a water-borne disease, and spreads readily after heavy rains. As of August 12, 2011, the 2010 - 2011 cholera epidemic had infected 419,000 Haitians, killing 5,968. After Hurricane Tomas passed on November 5, 2010, cholera cases exploded, with hospital admissions more than tripling for over a month. Similarly, heavy rains in June 2011 during the country's usual rainy season caused doubled cholera cases and deaths for several weeks. We can expect that Irene's rains will cause at least a doubling of cholera cases for a month or more. This will lead to several hundred additional cholera deaths, given the disease's 0.7% mortality rate this summer in Haiti (during June and July 2011, 95,212 cases were reported, with 626 deaths.) An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

See my 2010 post, Haiti's tragic hurricane history.

An exceptionally active of hurricane season
Hurricane season is only one-third over, and we've already had almost a full years' activity already. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and an average season has just 10 - 11 named storms. Irene's formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 was more active this early. However, the first eight storms of the year have done far less damage than is typical. All eight storms stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.

Figure 4. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Next post
There will be 2 - 3 posts per day in my blog this week during Irene, with Angela Fritz and Rob Carver doing some of the afternoon and evening posts.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Irene hits Puerto Rico (lobdellJ)

Tropical Storm Irene hits the north coast of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Irene from Maunabo, PR (ronmil)

The first bands or Irene approaching Maunabo, Puerto Rico (SE corner)...

Irene (reefchild)

Irene @OPkB OceanParkBeach Puerto Rico 7pm

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1001. ncstorm 6:16 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
12Z ECWMF running now Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8858

1002. MississippiWx 6:16 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting NASA101: However, 240 hrs EURO doesn't really show anything...lets see if 12Z has anything after IRENE!? The Euro doesn't go out as far as the GFS for one thing, but to add to that, the long range GFS has been picking up on these systems quicker than the European in the 10 day time frame. Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8925

1003. lennykat4 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Howdy Ya'll from Georgia... ...long time lurker but not poster because-- well-- I'm just not qualified to make judgement calls on Tropical Cyclone activity. So I'm just here learning, but I do have a question... ...here in Augusta, GA we were swamped with evacuees from Savannah to Charleston with Floyd in '99. Was wondering what your professional opinions are of evacuations from any of those major areas in between the two cities. And if it is possible how far out is that call made? Hope these questions aren't too pre-mature, my mom in Richmond Hill, GA is flipping out right now about her new home there and her 100 year old home on the Rappahannock River in Virginia. Oh and to the newsstation guy out of Charleston, pretty bold statements especially when you have your channel flag flying as your logo. Just sayin' Member Since: 30 augustus 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 25

1004. hydrus 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I think the GFDL has it out for Florida... Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14721

1005. Orcasystems 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Complete Update TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: 1 oktober 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

1006. whepton3 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting DookiePBC: Interesting...took a look at my local (palm beach)weather forecast on noaa.org. Before they showed Tropical Storm conditions possible Thursday night and Friday. Now it shows topical storm conditions possible Wednesday night thru Sunday. Guess they are realizing how big this thing really is! Been listening to the NOAA radio in Boca... have noticed the same thing. Member Since: 19 juli 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

1007. CajunCrawfishhunter 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Interesting storm. what does slow motion do? Does it allow time for ridge to build and storm to be pushed further west? Member Since: 17 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1008. nrtiwlnvragn 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Only the GFDL still on the left side, it and the UKMET are updated to 12Z, the rest are still waiting the 18Z update. Member Since: 23 september 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9096

1009. alvarig1263 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting RevInFL: Hi all. I saw the 2pm update and saw that TS force winds now extend out 185 miles. Seems all the weather forecasters in my area say I will be safe in East Central Florida,how far is Irene going to miss to the east of the peninsula? I mean 185 miles is pretty wide wind field. Who said anything about missing the peninsula? That may be the current track but we gotta see how it all shakes out. Just keep an eye on Irene. Member Since: 2 september 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744

1011. presslord 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting KEHCharleston: Without knowing that you are speaking as a weather junkie - the appearance is that you are speaking for WCSC. I respect your right to your own opinions. (Lawd knows you are most probably right!) However it might be harmful for folks to think that the weather team is recommending that they not worry about the storm. We do rely on Live 5 for excellent weather reporting. (Just my OWN opinion) except for that Bill Walsh guy...he's Catholic, ya know... Member Since: 13 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

1012. wpb 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
levi,can u comment on the 12z gfdl run should we toss it? Member Since: 28 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 500

1013. Torgen 6:17 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting RukusBoondocks: EVERYBODY JUST CALM DOWN!!!!!!!!!! Figured we could use a little stress relief. :) Member Since: 3 juni 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321

1014. thedawnawakening3 6:18 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Northern part of the circulation is somewhat exposed likely do to land interaction with hispaniola and dry air from the upper level trough to the northwest of her. Right now slight weakening maybe 5mph or bottoming out seems possible for the next 12 - 18 hours. Member Since: 29 juli 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5

1015. CybrTeddy 6:18 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
IMO Irene cannot head out to sea with the two ridges pressing on it, it can certainly though scrape the US coast. But to me, it doesn't seem likely at this time Irene will go out to sea.. could be completely wrong too. Regarding intensity, don't expect much in the way of serious strengthening the next 24 hours as it scrapes the Hispaniola coast, but in 36 hours, once its core starts to really tighten up some more we could see at peak a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane, the NHC appears to be mostly inline with this solution with a 115 mph Category 3 hitting the US. Member Since: 8 juli 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1016. Joshfsu123 6:18 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
My personal opinion is the HWRF and EMCWF models may have it right... taking Irene up towards the SC/NC coastline. Don't really see a definite NNE movement to keep it off the coast since the ridge will remain in the Atlantic, blocking a motion out to sea, but unless it runs over DR and stays weak, don't see a westward movement to impact Florida directly since a strong Hurricane will turn north once it feels the weakness. As others have stated, tonight's 00z models will tell us a lot (and the 06z models)... Member Since: 6 juli 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

1017. gugi182 6:18 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
let me tell you honestly i was 36 miles south of the eye wall of hurricane irene and i didn't get hurricane force winds only strong winds gusts of Tropical Storm force winds i hope this system doesn't affect the U.S at all but this is something we can't control. I'm seeing the NHC and there predicting a landfall on SOUTH CAROLINA as a CATEGORY 3. As a tropical storm it did a lot of damage here in PUERTO RICO i don't want to imaging a CATEGORY 3 as i know but it feels like to be in a CAT.3 all to well thanks to GEORGES as it was a direct hit on the island as a 115 MPH cat.3 hurricane. Stay safe you guys up in the states and it necessary be prepared. Member Since: 3 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 174

1018. gordydunnot 6:18 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I do notice all shower activity on Gitmo is moving do west. I've noticed if you follow some of your local radars when they are not directly in the storms circulation you can get a feel for the direction the storm is being pushed although Gitmo is probably to far away, all S. Fl. radars at nhc appear to be down. Member Since: 18 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1019. MississippiWx 6:19 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting jeanri2000: Question If the storm slows significantly would that mean she would miss the weakness in the ridge and thereby end up traveling more west as the high builds back in? Thanx Most likely, yes, but there is really nothing to suggest that the steering will weaken enough to make her slow down significantly. Of course, if she gets strong enough, she might could force herself a little farther west with the "pumping of the ridge" we joke about on here. We joke, but the NHC forecaster mentioned it as a possibility earlier this morning. Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8925

1020. RyanFSU 6:19 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
ECMWF through 96-hours... Member Since: 13 februari 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

1021. wolftribe2009 6:19 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I have a feeling Irene is going to be a LARGE storm Link Member Since: 22 juli 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

1022. atmoaggie 6:19 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Mean cloud top temperature showing a colder value than Irene's entire history up to this point: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/09L-list.txt Indeed, a fairly large area in her latest burst of convection. Member Since: 16 augustus 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1023. WCSCTVCharleston 6:19 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting KEHCharleston: Without knowing that you are speaking as a weather junkie - the appearance is that you are speaking for WCSC. I respect your right to your own opinions. (Lawd knows you are most probably right!) However it might be harmful for folks to think that the weather team is recommending that they not worry about the storm. We do rely on Live 5 for excellent weather reporting. (Just my OWN opinion) Didn't think of it that way i took the picture down and I encourage everyone in the Charleston area to watch Live 5 news for all the latest info on storm track evacuations closings and live reports around the area to keep you and your family prepared ahead of the storm. Member Since: 19 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

1024. tiggeriffic 6:20 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting JohnsIslandJoe: I'm going to wait until Wednesday before I hit the panic button. Still too much uncertainty with respect to the projected track. If it's hits Edisto Beach Chas will receive the nasty northern quadrant but if it moves 50 miles to the east we will miss the real ugliness. I think we are in for some part Irene reguardless. you can pretty much bet that school will be closed Friday as the bridges close with sustained winds of 40mph...if it is coming in anywhere near us they wont take the chance that buses be out in the weather later in the evening...panic button ready to go and batteries replaced but still on the shelf...however, i did dust it off just in case Member Since: 16 september 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3598

1025. xtremeweathertracker 6:20 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Hurricane Irene Video Update Member Since: 31 mei 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 555

1027. JNCali 6:21 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Thank God Irene is forecast north of Haiti... Of course that also means that the storm remains over warm water... Member Since: 9 september 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

1028. BahaHurican 6:21 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
For the people who think it has to be NC or fish, a look at the 1928 hurricane map may be instructive: Member Since: 25 oktober 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17964

1029. ncstorm 6:21 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: you can pretty much bet that school will be closed Friday as the bridges close with sustained winds of 40mph...if it is coming in anywhere near us they wont take the chance that buses be out in the weather later in the evening...panic button ready to go and batteries replaced but still on the shelf...however, i did dust it off just in case schools start here on thursday..but if Irene does what some of the models are predicting, school might be delayed for a while Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8858

1030. 69Viking 6:21 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting USAFwxguy: During these active times, it may be best to link to RADAR images. Tends to slow the blog down a bit, but that may just be my system. LOL, you are running on one of those "high tech" locked down DOD systems aren't you! Sorry, been working IT in the Government arena for a while now so know all about them, you're right, probably just is your system! Member Since: 25 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2268

1031. snow2fire 6:22 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
NCstorm - I'm in Raleigh area... If the NHC does not issue an evacuation order, whether to evacuate becomes a personal decision. First, it is unlikely that a CAT 5 would impact the NC coast. Nonetheless even with a weaker storm it is prudent to expect high winds, power outages, etc. and prepare accordingly. It’s worth looking at what happened in past to think about what might happen if a Cat3 were to impact coast and run through Raleigh Area. Here’s some info on what happened with Fran. FEMA http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hes/docs/stormEffects/STUD Y_INLAND_WIND_EFFECTS_FRAN_ASSESSMENT_INLAND_WIND_ MODEL.pdf Wind: in Fran Raleigh had sustained winds of 45 mph and estimated gusts to 79. Greenville had estimated gusts to 100mph. There are more up to date reports that provide inland wind models. These may give insight into what kinds of winds might be expected inland given a given storm and track. NCSU http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/1996090 6/ Wake County (Raleigh and vicinity) alone reported over $900 million in damage to residential and commercial property. Forestry/timber losses for the state probably exceeded $1 billion. Water and power were out for a week. Downed trees closed many major roads preventing a quick response by the 1st responders. Wake County Emergency Operations plan notes that at one point after Fran 1.7 Million residents of Wake county were without power. The response didn’t go so well for Fran and many lessons were learned. Hopefully Gov has incorporated LL into today’s plans. If a big hurricane were to impact us, it would be prudent, to prepare as a minimum,for a few days of no power, water, food etc. It may be a good idea to think about how many dying and sick loblolly pines and other trees can fall on your house when you're deciding where to ride storm out. As with people living on the beach, we need to think about making plans before a storm hits, finalize the plan as the threat emerges, and then execute the plan if it becomes necessary. I hope this is a little helpful. Member Since: 5 juni 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 158

1032. RitaEvac 6:22 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
This exactly what this blog is when a storm is coming Member Since: 14 juli 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8953

1033. kylejourdan2006 6:22 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting thedawnawakening3: Northern part of the circulation is somewhat exposed likely do to land interaction with hispaniola and dry air from the upper level trough to the northwest of her. Right now slight weakening maybe 5mph or bottoming out seems possible for the next 12 - 18 hours. Actually, the circulation itself is completely embedded in heavy thunderstorm activity that has been increasing. There was a slight dry slot that formed briefly, but is clearly being filled in on visible satellite imagery... Member Since: 18 juli 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521

1034. MrstormX 6:22 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
When is the next recon??? Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

1035. ncstorm 6:23 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
936 mb depicted by the ECWMF Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8858

1036. iamajeepmom 6:23 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting DookiePBC: Interesting...took a look at my local (palm beach)weather forecast on noaa.org. Before they showed Tropical Storm conditions possible Thursday night and Friday. Now it shows topical storm conditions possible Wednesday night thru Sunday. Guess they are realizing how big this thing really is! hmmm...you been gathering your nuts up for safekeeping?:) Member Since: 5 juni 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

1037. LongGlassTube 6:23 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: I believe 98L deserved an upgrade at the 2pm TWO. All of the focus at the NHC is on Irene, as it should be. I think 98L will certainly be named soon. What I have observed is that 98L has sucked up a tremendous about of the SAL that was in the mid Atlantic. The wave train off Africa is pumping wave after wave now. Without the SAL if we get a stronger ridge it will certainly be an interesting season. Member Since: 22 september 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 167

1038. usa777 6:24 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting Barkeep1967: Ummmmm not very bad ? You might want to Check again and rethink you post. Ask those folks in Mississippi how bad the winds were. I can tell you first hand the winds were bad. I was in Bay St louis. The winds were screaming..a sound I will never forget. One of my wierdest memories from that day was me clinging to a tree, and seeing a cat in another tree and I could see that the cat was screaming and of course I couldn't hear it. It's crazy the little things you remember during a near death experience. I pray to god that this thing doesn't get to a cat 4 or 5 and makes landfall. Member Since: 11 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

1039. thedawnawakening3 6:24 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
I didn't say the COC was exposed, I said a part of the circulation was exposed in that dry slot region which is slowly filling in. Member Since: 29 juli 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5

1040. Bassfishing123 6:24 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting xtremeweathertracker: Hurricane Irene Video Update Thanks for update Member Since: 21 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

1041. Joshfsu123 6:24 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting RyanFSU: ECMWF through 96-hours... To me, that picture by the ECMWF at hour 96 shows the TROF lifting out - if that is the case, it should support Irene moving NORTH into the weakness and into SC/NC and up the east coast, as once the TROF lifts out, the high pressure will rebuild. Interested to see what the rest of this model run looks like. Member Since: 6 juli 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

1043. tiggeriffic 6:25 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting ncstorm: schools start here on thursday..but if Irene does what some of the models are predicting, school might be delayed for a while school started for us in the Charleston area last week...this is gonna be an interesting week none the less...even our updates on the 8s has us blocked in red for friday watching the tropics...almost eerie in a way Member Since: 16 september 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3598

1044. ncstorm 6:25 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting snow2fire: NCstorm - I'm in Raleigh area... If the NHC does not issue an evacuation order, whether to evacuate becomes a personal decision. First, it is unlikely that a CAT 5 would impact the NC coast. Nonetheless even with a weaker storm it is prudent to expect high winds, power outages, etc. and prepare accordingly. It’s worth looking at what happened in past to think about what might happen if a Cat3 were to impact coast and run through Raleigh Area. Here’s some info on what happened with Fran. FEMA http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hes/docs/stormEffects/STUD Y_INLAND_WIND_EFFECTS_FRAN_ASSESSMENT_INLAND_WIND_ MODEL.pdf Wind: in Fran Raleigh had sustained winds of 45 mph and estimated gusts to 79. Greenville had estimated gusts to 100mph. There are more up to date reports that provide inland wind models. These may give insight into what kinds of winds might be expected inland given a given storm and track. NCSU http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/1996090 6/ Wake County (Raleigh and vicinity) alone reported over $900 million in damage to residential and commercial property. Forestry/timber losses for the state probably exceeded $1 billion. Water and power were out for a week. Downed trees closed many major roads preventing a quick response by the 1st responders. Wake County Emergency Operations plan notes that at one point after Fran 1.7 Million residents of Wake county were without power. The response didn’t go so well for Fran and many lessons were learned. Hopefully Gov has incorporated LL into today’s plans. If a big hurricane were to impact us, it would be prudent, to prepare as a minimum,for a few days of no power, water, food etc. It may be a good idea to think about how many dying and sick loblolly pines and other trees can fall on your house when you're deciding where to ride storm out. As with people living on the beach, we need to think about making plans before a storm hits, finalize the plan as the threat emerges, and then execute the plan if it becomes necessary. I hope this is a little helpful. thanks..appreciate it! Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8858

1045. Dem86Mets 6:25 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
12Z nogaps Shifted West insignificantly Member Since: 18 augustus 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1046. nrtiwlnvragn 6:25 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting MrstormX: When is the next recon??? Lower level one is scheduled for takeoff at 7:15 PM EDT. The upper level ones should be in the air currently. Member Since: 23 september 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9096

1047. presslord 6:26 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: school started for us in the Charleston area last week...this is gonna be an interesting week none the less...even our updates on the 8s has us blocked in red for friday watching the tropics...almost eerie in a way I wouldn't get too excited about having Friday off just yet if I were you, kiddo... Member Since: 13 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

1048. MrstormX 6:26 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Lower level one is scheduled for takeoff at 7:15 PM EDT. The upper level ones should be in the air currently. thx Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

1049. DookiePBC 6:26 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting iamajeepmom: hmmm...you been gathering your nuts up for safekeeping?:) Not so easy...when tropical activity threatens, the squirrels are the first to know. They tend to arm themselves, as shown in my avatar. ;-) Member Since: 1 september 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 435

1050. GoWVU 6:26 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Quoting tiggeriffic: school started for us in the Charleston area last week...this is gonna be an interesting week none the less...even our updates on the 8s has us blocked in red for friday watching the tropics...almost eerie in a way Would not be surprised when I get to work tommorow, if the air base starts moving planes out of the Charleston area... Member Since: 12 september 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 350

1051. xtremeweathertracker 6:27 PM GMT op 22 augustus 2011
Notice how similar the 12Z GFDL and ECMWF models are when making their approach to Florida!! We definitely cannot rule out a direct Florida landfall at this point!! Notice how both models show the A/B high building back in rather strongly as Irene makes its approach to Florida. The exact strength of this high will be the deciding factor in track!!! Member Since: 31 mei 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 555

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