Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
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Invest 97L Located 1100 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Morning satellite imagery indicated somewhat of an increase in convection with Invest 97L, which is located about 1100 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. It appears that this increase in convection is due to that the atmosphere is starting to moisten up around 97L and that it is starting to encounter warmer ocean waters of 29 Degrees Celsius or 84 Degrees Fahrenheit. I fully expect this disturbance to continue organizing, especially once it gets west of 50 and 55 West Longitude. Upper level conditions are favorable and it will be encountering even warmer sea surface temperatures of near 30 Degrees Celsius or 86 Degrees Fahrenheit as it tracks west of 50 and 55 West Longitude.
I do not expect 97L to develop into a tropical depression today, however, it is quite possible that this system will become a tropical depression on Saturday and there is a even higher likelihood of it being upgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday.
The operational model guidance consisting of the GFS, Canadian and European model guidance are all in very good agreement with a track forecast for the next three to four days. It is looking likely that 97L will track into the Caribbean later Sunday after affecting the Lesser Antilles and Barbados with possible tropical storm conditions on Saturday night into Sunday. Once this system gets to a point just south of Hispaniola on Tuesday, the operational guidance diverges greatly with the GFS model forecasting an eventual landfall on the central and eastern US Gulf Coast. The European model forecasts a serious hit along the entire US East Coast from Miami to potentially Philadelphia, New York City and southern New England. The Canadian model is slightly further east than the European model and forecasts a pretty serious hit on the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states.
The ensemble model guidance of the GFS, European and even the Canadian models are “interesting” as they all pretty much agree with each other. The ensemble guidance is pointing to a scenario that has 97L tracking across the central and northern part of the Caribbean from Monday to Thursday of next week and for this system to track across central or western Cuba around next Friday. Once we get into next weekend, the average of all of the ensemble model guidance members suggests a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an impact into the Florida Panhandle next Sunday. It should be pointed out that the ensemble spread, which basically means a larger area of possibilities, stretch from the upper Texas coast all the way eastward to the North Carolina coast.
It is way too early to make an accurate prediction on where this system may impact the US coastline, however, the overall pattern strongly suggests a very worrisome scenario of an approaching potential hurricane impacting somewhere on the US Gulf coast or the US Southeast coast next weekend. As for the Caribbean, it seems quite possible that a strengthening tropical storm or hurricane will be tracking west-northwestward across the Caribbean next week with potential impacts felt in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and possibly the Yucatan Peninsula.
I would like to urge all of our Crown Weather friends across the Caribbean, the Gulf coast and the US Southeast coast to closely monitor this system and continue to make preparations as you normally would as we enter the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will be monitoring Invest 97L very closely this weekend and I will keep you all updated
wait watch see
Are TD8 and 93 one and the same?
Request authorization to use Poof Bomb........
poss T.C.F.A. on 97 just issued and 98 issued at 2 am
Good morning bloggers. True last night was Texas LA border now is back to Florida. Not formed but it got a Orange circle by the NHC. As it progresses we'll get a better ideada as to where is it going. I enpect for something mayor to threat somewhere between TX to North FL.
no 93L got upgrade too TD8
First, at this time 93L never had a low level circulation it only had a slight wind shift,but 97L has a much better low level circulation
Second, at this time 93L didn't have a good low pressure to work with, it was 1012mb at best,but 97L has a very low pressure of 1006 mb for a tropical wave measured by the buy last hour.
Hey, KEEP. When do you think this dry air will start moving out? Looks like a little struggle there for a bit.
Haven't had my morning caffeine yet, so can someone fill me in...as far as 97L goes, are we still all DOOM?
Damn!!
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY.
'Mornin' all.
So does mine Gro... though I am worried about my patio furniture, since by virtue of the front yard facing west, the back patio faces east.
Models are troubling still... waiting 'til over the weekend to see..
And you have been a member on here since, erm . . . yesterday.
That makes you all the more amazing, imo.
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Morning Logic..
Chalk another model up to the 97L fan club.
Boy, for S. FL that's a pretty ominous solution.
The estimated location where a center might develop is almost the same latitude as Barbados, and currently moving west.
Many seasons that I've watched threats roll into the Caribbean and I have noticed that often times the models have these systems passing just north of the Leewards...and this often ends up not happening. I wouldn't be surprisd to see the models continue to shift south in the short term. I can only assume that often times the models forecast for faster intensification and make a stronger system, which gains latitude more quickly.
Too much dry air for mid/late august
Yeah...that's the kind of scenario that will require maximum shower curtain protection!!!
EDIT: Looked at your avatar and saw West Bay. I am in East End and many more on here from all over the island.
Hey, scott, morning guys. Looks like something to watch.
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