Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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if you look at the loop,it appears the low clouds in the southern part of strom get sucked in to the stronger convection further north in TD#8.
Link
I've just had total hip replacement surgery and am in no shape to drive or evacuate should anything arrive in ECFL. We'll just have to see what plays out. But yeah, it's the third week in August and stuff is happening. There was a discussion yesterday on here about how difficult it is to evacuate in Florida. I would be staying with my pets anyway and can get people to put up my hurricane shutters. Looks like we do have two Cape Verde waves that are favorable for development though. So it's best to be mindful now about preparations not only for ourselves but for our neighbors (like my mother!) who do not think about hurricane preparation until it's almost too late.
Some folks in here think BP cleaned up all the oil. Huh?
Good morning. This question could cause a serious debate I believe. Some would say yes. I say I don't believe so. I work on a drilling rig in GOM, and I just got back on here yesterday. I've not seen any oil out here for quite a long while now. The rig I'm on has been moving back and forth from south of Fourchon La. to the Eastern side of Venice La. I have a camp in Venice LA. I was there the past 2 weekends fishing, and I've seen no oil. I've not seen any oil there in a long while. That is all the info I can give you. The oil is dispersed as far as what I'm seeing. And yes I ate fish and crabs that we caught there. Plus some very delicious freshly caught shrimp that we bought.
Cleaned up and covered up are two different things...
back to sleep for me now but wanted to check on things here as there is a lot going on!
PASS DA SHRIMPS PLEASE!
How you want em now you? Boiled, fried, grilled, soup, salad, sauteed, or you want some gumbo or some etoufee? LOL
There should be folks to help in situations like yours chicklet,prob call police/fire/city government to inquire. I have seen many runs of the models showing a storm near Florida,Over Florida, best to find out your options now. Good Luck
Wonderful!
I wonder if any model runs will switch back east towards maybe, um Georgetown SC. I doubt it. But being on the right side of a hurricane moving into SC, even below Charleston, has brought us surprisingly nasty weather.
nesways yous got dem succkas ready!!!!
You are very welcome. You are very correct It is a big ocean. There was a major oil spill in Mexico in 1979. A rig drilling for PEMEX had a blowout, very similar to the Horizon. The PEMEX well was flowing 30,000 barrels of oil a day into the GOM for 3 months. The oil actually reached the Texas coastline. It was burned, dispersed, etc. Same story as BP spill. But I've not read any info on upwelling of oil from the sea floor by hurricanes from that spill. That previous spill and what I see from the current situation is what I've based my opinion on. A year ago at this time my opinion would've been 100% different. Because at that time we would still see quite a bit of oil on the surface.
That would have to be one hell of a storm, though the oil still washes up...
Chavez
El Presidente Hugo Chavez??
Is President Chavez a bad guy? Hasnt he won 3-4 elections in a row?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA TOOOOO FUNNY
I agree that there are still a lot of questions. But the models have been very consistent in bringing it into somewhere between Florida and the Carolinas, most often as a hurricane. That level of consistency can't be ignored.
If I had to pick im saying yes it will landfall in the usa 70% to 30 recurve, that is assuming it evolves into a tropical cyclone at all
Or indeed into the Gulf Coast, as the GFS has now latched onto. It might miss, or not develop, but the models have regularly shown a CONUS hit, and it's important to watch these things from more than 3 days out. Models at that range give clues to patterns rather than specific details, but they can still be used for long-range forecasts.
Too corny.
perfect!!!! you got it Bubba.
i dont know, ive seen many runs with a cat 3 hurricane sitting by tampa or ft myers for my liking
They did it for us during Emily here too. Of course, we got la nadda, so I hope they reconsider doing this stuff this early on. Some of the folks I know around here will stop paying attention and will get caught with the pants down when the message is truely warranted. Ya know...the old crying wolf syndrome...
Hell a few years ago he took over some american owned drilling rigs. By taking over I mean the Venezuelan Army came on board the rigs, and escorted all American personnel off the rig. The only ex pat (American)workers on the rigs were supervisors. The rest of the workers were all Venezuelan nationals. He would not allow the American drilling companies to move their rigs out of Venezuela until just recently. This was only after he had worked the rigs to pieces. They couldn't be used anymore, and had to have complete overhauls.
indeed
agreed
God Bless u all
goodnight
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