Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000 110820 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.3N 48.3W 16.5N 52.4W
BAMD 13.6N 41.4W 14.4N 44.7W 15.4N 48.1W 16.4N 51.7W
BAMM 13.6N 41.4W 14.3N 44.7W 15.5N 48.6W 16.6N 52.7W
LBAR 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.2N 48.0W 16.1N 51.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110821 0000 110822 0000 110823 0000 110824 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 56.7W 20.1N 64.8W 21.4N 72.2W 21.4N 78.3W
BAMD 17.4N 55.1W 19.3N 61.0W 20.9N 65.3W 22.7N 68.7W
BAMM 17.8N 56.8W 19.7N 64.5W 20.3N 71.4W 19.7N 76.4W
LBAR 17.1N 54.8W 18.6N 61.3W 21.0N 65.6W 20.2N 60.7W
SHIP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 88KTS
DSHP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 74KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
You did not see the 18Z GFS take Texas off the map.
LOL
AL, 97, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 414W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Watch out PR if these are right, lot of model convergence.
where the update for 93L?
Where at in MS may I ask?
I dont see why 97L won't develop. As it approaches the islands we should see some decent development begin to occur.
LOL..I saw a BOOOMMBBBB!
Hey there Plaza...good to see you :) This is the WV loop.....maybe this is the one you're talking about..lots of tropical moisture out there...I'm certainly a watcher....not much of a discussor...
Not updated yet.
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
Already 30% and designated 98L
97L is start too show that t-storm are starting too refire some
Awesome link blsealevel. Thanks for putting that together :)
Well, not all waves fall apart. This axis is over water now and holding steady.
I asked the same question but I suppose they have some model support for development and can't ignore that...I would have waited but you also have to consider a possible threat to the Cape Verde Islands if it did "instant" hurricane off the coast.........
Emily did not have this strong and this powerful of model support, people really need to stop comparing this to Emily.. we're getting in the time of season that hurricanes have to happen. They're not going to be all duds. The SAL is causing storms to weaker, but that's causing systems to get closer to the USA just like in 2005. I rarely compare any season to 2005, but the dry air is very similar to that year.. actually its less dry air.
30% already
The face of future DOOOOOOOOOOM!!
RAMMB CIRA finally decided to let none CIRA personnel look at their African satellite imagery.
Loop 1
Loop 2
Loop 3
Link
AL, 93, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Great find.
Impossible.
The only way to get that many named storms, in 2005 (and storms in general, one was unnamed) was to have little to no wind shear and dry air and warm waters for the entire season. That's why '05 was a rare season because it is rare you get conditions to be that perfect for the whole season. So 2011 has more dry air and wind shear than '05 did.
DMAX is firing up for the WATL nicely. Including the WV spinning around TX.
Might just be temporarily allowing the public to use the loops since Bob is using it on the show
But the OMNI source page here: https://www.baronservices.com/broadcast/display/o mni
Wrong.
2005 did indeed have more dry air than this season does, and so did last year. Wind shear across the basin is very low, a lot below normal.
not really i have seen many storm in the E PAC that says DB got upgrade too a TD or TS even overe here i seen storms get upgrade even if it say DB i think the nhc is this waiting for the recon too get in there
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