Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOOKING OUT TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK...GFS/ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR HISPANIOLA VICINITY TUE...THE SRN BAHAMAS ON
WED AND HAVING A CHANCE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT FL JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AS THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. WOULD NOT NORMALLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE BUT THE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
OF A SYSTEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AS YOU NORMALLY WOULD AS WE ENTER THE
PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FROM MID AUG TO EARLY OCT AND KEEP UP
WITH LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011
EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER S FLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLIMO POPS. NOCTURNAL E COAST
AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
LINING UP AND AGREEING THAT A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOADING ECMWF WINDS AND
LEAVING WEATHER AS IS PENDING ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE/DEVELOPMENT.
No renumber yet, so we'll likely have to wait another forecast package...maybe the 8pm one. It's simply running out of time and I'd be surprised if it took another 48 hours to make landfall.
It will be interesting to see how much land interaction it will really have.
Just posted this afternoon's discussion... so even more reason why. :-)
1rst of all - human lives are lost....
Then; lost of property, jobs and many other factors induce more criminality and emigration...
And that's only a little consideration of all the negative effects a hurricane has...
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is issuing advisories on tropical storm Fernanda, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Additional informations can be found under AWIPS header hnltcpcp1 and WMO header WTPA31 PHFO.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.
-419.63
Reflected by difference between BAMS, BAMM, BAMD:
Dont forget the fact that we dont get hit that much by these storms our last hurricane was george. This is very important when thinking about possible damage senarios because of vegetation growth, the rainforest grows fast and over the last 13 years the trees have had time to grow and so has the jungle so when the next storm does come it will have alot to throw around so to speak. This will complicate clean up to say the least.
Somebody probably already posted this, but the ECMWF has a sick sense of humor.
Could that change? Of course, but until then, don't worry about a system that doesn't even match half the intensity of sea breeze storms in Florida.
The one thing 97L does have going for it so far is that it has a well defined circulation, if it can get into a much more favorable environment for convection and break away from the dry air, then we will likely see a completely different system.
HH found 1009.9 about 3 hours ago at 15.0N 78.5W
I would certainly think about gators and snakes in the bayou country.... if nothing else...
That animation is really nice where do you get it?
If you look at the ECMWF loop it gives a different picture. It shows a strong system in the Gulf of Mexico at that time.
Invest97----Allan Huffman, Raleigh Weather Examiner
The wave we have been watching all week because of the global models insistence that it could be a US threat is still out there but as of now not rapidly getting better organized. There is a circulation apparent on visible satellite imagery but there is a lack of deep convection and the convection that is there is not concentrated in the center. A point to keep in mind here is that no model is really showing any immediate development. In fact at 00z Sunday (8pm Saturday night), the storm is still an open wave on the Euro and is only a 1008mb low on the 12z GFS as it approaches the northern and central Islands.
The 12z data is in and is all over the place with the eventual landfall risks with this system. Each model has taken turns threatening the Gulf coast, the west coast of Florida, the Keys, the east coast of Florida, and the southeast coast. The 12z GFS showed the storm running right over Hispaniola, Cuba, into the Gulf and then striking the west coast of Florida and into the southeast US. The 12z ECMWF has shifted way west too after the 00z run showed an impending strike on the southeast coast, the 12z now shows the storm tracking much further west and moving through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf as a powerful hurricane. The 12z Canadian looks like last night’s Euro through 180 hours with a close pass to Florida and an impending strike on the southeast US coast. The various 12z GFS ensemble members showed a similar spread with more members in the Gulf as opposed to off the southeast US coast.
Deadly storm strikes Belgium's Pukkelpop festival
At least two people have been killed at the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium after a sudden storm caused two stages to collapse, reports say.
Television pictures from the scene, about 65km (40 miles) east of Brussels, showed fallen stage rigging and people scrambling for cover.
Initial reports in the Belgian media said four people had been killed.
About 60,000 people were believed to be at the event, one of Europe's largest outdoor festivals.
The mayor of the town of Hasselt, where Pukkelpop is held, said 40 people were injured, AP news agency reported.
The TV images showed rain-soaked festival-goers bracing against strong winds. Fallen gantries and rigging could be seen on the ground.
Belgian media reported that trees were uprooted by the violent storm and smashed into the stage, bringing it down.
Some festival-goers said on the Twitter website that a tornado had struck.
The BBC's Matthew Cole, in Brussels, said the storms swept across Belgium in the early evening, turning the sky dark.
Five people were killed last week at a festival in the US state of Indiana when a stage collapsed in high winds.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14582448
The winds are pretty decent as well, even on the NW side of the system.
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 102 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.0 °F
is that for 93L or 97L?
It looks like this one finally stopped gobbling up dry air. The outflow boundaries have virtually disappeared.
Thanks for the close-up shot, helping us to see this.
Wait and see cuts both ways. Sure, it may not come to anything; OTOH, it may come to something notable.
Does the WMO have a publically issued list of the new storm names if one were to get retired.
For example, let me use Don so I'm not cursing anybody. For the sake of argument, let's say Don gets retired. (I know it won't.) Would they already know what name they are using to replace Don in 2017, for example Derrick. If not already, when do they have the new names by? Thanks.
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