Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Pretty sure it is.
I was about 99.9% sure, but wanted to verify. Unfortunately, like stormtop's legendary call on Katrina, his final "forecast" of Don was close enough to reality that some were getting suckered in.
But anyone who saw him state that Don was heading SE *out* of the Gulf toward Hispaniola, well.....
Dvorak is a mess
The National Weather Service in Phoenix has issued a dust Storm
Warning... which is in effect until 7 PM MST this evening.
* Affected area: northwest Pinal County.
oh ok
A posted not-meant-for-general-public NHC message is fine. I am talking about when they make stuff up and make it sound real. So we basically agree... Unlike the House and Senate.
based on WV?
Seems the ITCZ "Borg" assimilated it tonight bappit
Impatience is so prevalent on here, it is surprising that most can even sit through 1 storm without needing therapy
: )
yup DMAX will help it
These are ALL 00z models.
will he could say your downcasting lol
Most here need therapy regardless.
Example...Blue Water Insurance sets theirs at:
A fundamental concept if safe cruising is to stay out of the hurricane zone during the hurricane season (between 12 degrees 40 minutes N LAT to 23 degrees 30 minutes N LAT while between 55 degrees W LON and 85 degrees W LON July 1 to Nov 1.
This box extends from St. Vincent to Nicaragua in the south...to the tropic of cancer in the north (bisecting he Bahamas, the Florida strait and just north of the Yucatan) and is bounded on the east by exluding all of the Caribe Islands by about 50 miles and on the west excluding all of the western caribe.
This is an attractively SMALL box as Grenada is not excluded nor is Florida or the Bahamas. Many policies will exclude anything south of the Chesapeake.
Where is what's his name that was pushing this?
May need another 24-36 hours to get together.
its trying
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
cyclonebuster
Back in 2006
Da good old days.
Now that's funny! On another note, Jason has filled my ignore list up to number 9. For some reason I cannot add more handles to my list. It disappears after I hit save. Any thoughts?
Under writing stops when a named storm is within the 80/20 region
'night Taz
Ahh yes, that is the one...
That was a running joke on the blog when I joined..wow..my first iggy was STORMTOP5000...lol
As long as 91L remains weak, it will continue to shift the models.
Now the track may take 91L half way through the upper Caribbean.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TYPHOON MUIFA (T1109)
9:00 AM JST August 1 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Muifa (935 hPa) located at 18.9N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.5N 133.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 23.6N 131.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.9N 128.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Additional Information
=====================
Typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours
Typhoon will move north for the next 24 hours then move northwest
Typhoon will keep present intensity for next 24 hours
Final initial Dvorak number will be T6.0 after 24 hours
91L looks like trash right now...May not become a storm until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.
Not downcasting, real-time observation.
Someone's ears are burning.
I'm allowed to wishcast if I want too I downcasted Don.
;)
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