Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Nope, should be permanent. Someone who purposely gives out false information about a possible threat should be banned.
AL, 91, 2011080100, , BEST, 0, 133N, 565W, 25, 1009, LO
Ha! New England is overdue for one. Wouldn't mind me a tropical storm for some excitement. Don't need any canes rolling up Buzzards Bay though! It's going to have be Emily if ones coming for me, because I move to Denver for school in a week.
If that model holds, it's right outside my living room in a few days.
If I'm not mistaken, right before making landfall on the Yucatan, Isidore was forecast to track to the Brownsville area.
Lili, that had to be one of the most spectacular fizzle's I've ever seen. About a day before landfall, advisories were going out stating something to the effect of "catastrophic twenty foot storm surge heading for the coast of Louisiana." And then the core collapsed.
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
It appears there was a low-level center trying to develop with the wave preceding 91L. It appears that it moving under the greatest convection associated with the original 91L. I suspect that we will observe a better organized system in the morning and the wave preceding 91L will diminish in thurderstorm activity and consolidate with the existing 91L.
I was gonna point that out too...but I don't think he reads the posts...he's "broadcast only"
He's been talking about that model for two days now. I figured that everyone else knew that it was total BS.
then again i guess a center could reform anywhere in the mess that is 91L
Who's in charge of Florida's hurricane Deflector Sheild....
Can anyone turn it On?
I agree, I've read this blog since 2005--even though I've only randomly posted--and there were a lot of wise folks that I don't see any more these last couple years. At least we learned a lot from them before they left.
It said NEAR 100%... That means, no matter how remote, there was still a chance it wouldn't form. Just like there is a chance you will win powerball...
Add posting fake NHC messages too.
If it's the same idiot I'm thinking of, the e-mail I got from him shows he has a great grasp of the English language...
Then we would have a small group always complaining about how vague three levels are. We want details!!
Note, before anyone says its weakening.. this is likely to reflect data from the recon as they relied off buoys and satellite estimates.
Would hate to be you. :)
ciao
Be safe on da road dude
If you google storm w or palm harbor Forecast center you'll find his blog. Plenty of good people still around, though... Cchs has always been good, levi's great; I read more than I post; taco and taz have been around a while. If you sift thru the nonsense, there are still good brains in here!!
Good night, we will see what 91L looks like in the AM. Kind of crazy out there right now.
I think the ITCZ (as shown on the map) took it over.
Dmin. Looks like the wave is trying to consolidate into one area with a single center/axis to me.
Pretty sure it is.
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