Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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The Japanese earthquake may have been much further away from inhabited areas. Relatively small earthquakes can have much much higher MMI numbers than an earthquake with a large magnitude, depending on proximity to population. Also, local soil types, etc., can have an effect on the subjective intensity of the earthquake.
It's possible without posting a blog, but it's really buggy.
further west than what I thought. :\
Im looking at the 850mb and 500mb vort maps and it looks fairly well aligned to me.
why did storm get banned?
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 07/31/2011 at 4:46PM PDT
A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.
Based on the earthquake magnitude, location and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts. At coastal locations which have experienced strong ground shaking, local tsunamis are possible due to underwater landslides.
At 4:39 PM Pacific Daylight Time on July 31, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 6.8 occurred near the north coast of New Guinea, PNG . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)
Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.
Forecast:
If it can manage to develop a closed, low-level circulation during the next 12-24 hrs the system should track across northern Carribean WNW turning more NW once it reaches the western edge of Haiti, cross over Eastern Cuba and threaten the SE Bahamas as a strong TS. Depending on the upper-level winds over the eastern US/Western Atlantic at that time (Thursday/Friday) will determine if it will recurve into the Atlantic or or resume a more WNW track and threaten Florida/GOM.
Next update will be Monday PM.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
56.5 doesn't look right to me but whatd I know.
Goodnight!
----
208
WHXX01 KWBC 010038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC MON AUG 1 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110801 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110801 0000 110801 1200 110802 0000 110802 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 56.5W 13.7N 58.7W 14.2N 60.8W 14.7N 62.9W
BAMD 13.3N 56.5W 13.7N 59.3W 13.8N 61.7W 13.8N 64.0W
BAMM 13.3N 56.5W 13.6N 58.7W 13.8N 60.9W 14.1N 62.9W
LBAR 13.3N 56.5W 13.8N 59.5W 14.5N 62.5W 15.2N 65.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110803 0000 110804 0000 110805 0000 110806 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 64.7W 17.1N 68.5W 19.6N 72.0W 22.3N 73.8W
BAMD 14.0N 65.8W 15.2N 68.3W 18.4N 70.3W 20.8N 71.9W
BAMM 14.8N 64.5W 16.8N 67.3W 20.2N 69.7W 23.5N 71.1W
LBAR 16.1N 67.5W 18.7N 71.5W 22.7N 74.5W 26.6N 76.5W
SHIP 57KTS 72KTS 76KTS 83KTS
DSHP 57KTS 72KTS 48KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 53.1W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 50.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Indeed,2002 7 days apart
Considering 91L's past coordinates have been heavily modified I think we will see a readjustment to the east.
I have monitored this blog for over 8 years. Last year it blew up and many of the greats have left. It really is too bad that so many people have to attack others.
I agree 100% :o)
Taco :o)
Doesn't GFDL use GFS in some form or fashion?
Those were very interesting, and as I recall Isidore was one of the more glaring forecast errors by the NHC over the last decade. I am pretty sure they never forecast the sudden landfall on the Yucatan's northwestern coast, followed by the loop it did. You got tropical storm Isidore, didn't you?
18ZGFS has upper air data in it. "That's Close"
Yea, so there, Ice Ice Baby. ;)
The GFDL belongs to Princeton University if I'm not mistaken.
Isidore was a very wet system here..but not much more than a nuisance thankfully.
Maybe the Doc should add one more rule to the "rules of the road" listing:
During active periods of hurricane season, anyone referring to non-existent hurricane models or processes will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
Appears to be part of NOAA.
GFDL = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
Too close for comfort.
unpredictable and complexed
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