Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Every single time?
Though I'm admittingly Pro-American, I would certainly shake your hand on that, I think they speak for themselves though, Like Abe Lincoln said, "better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt" would really be the only advice I have for such narrow mindedness!
I think you diplomatically hit the nail on the head... no such thing as a "FISH" storm...it will affect someone somewhere somehow, either by damage to land or damage to shipping or fishing industry
If it keeps the actual trend of the last 12 hrs. it will pass N of the islands...
REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.4E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA IS APPROACHING THE END OF A 12 HOUR EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPECCABLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH BEAUTIFUL SYMMETRY AND A TIGHT PINHOLE 11 NM EYE. A 301718Z AMSRE IMAGE PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY IN THE EYEWALL. IT ALSO SHOWS NO SIGN OF A SECONDARY, OUTER EYEWALL FORMING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BRAKING MECHANISM TO THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY, RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES AND 6.0 (90) KNOTS FROM RJTD. THE SPECTACULAR INTENSIFICATION SINCE 300000Z WAS FACILITATED BY THE PILING ON OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO AN ALREADY WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT SINCE THE GENITIVE STAGES. UNTIL YESTERDAY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAD BEEN IMPEDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT YESTERDAY, IMPINGEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EASED. THEN NEAR 300000Z, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL OPENED UP WHILE ANOTHER CHANNEL DEVELOPED TO THE EAST, INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE TUTT. STY 11W NOW HAS A SINGULAR EXHAUST POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TUTT CELL HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR TAIWAN AND OPENING ON THE STORM, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BRING A RETURN TO A SLOWER, MORE STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. STY 11W IS ON A POLEWARD TRACK IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE. A WEAK PUSH IS BEING PROVIDED ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BY AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS STY 11W CLEARS THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT ALONG A NET NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE), THE RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BECOME THE STEERING FORCE, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE ZEROS IN ON A TRACK CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW AND STEADY UP TO THE POINT OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE DECLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FUNCTION OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH TAU 72, AS THEY ARE IN NEARLY EXACT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE TWO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER STEERING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS STRIKES THE NORTHERN TIP OF OKINAWA. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED POLEWARD BY GFDN AND GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 WILL BE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE SCENARIO DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OKINAWA. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS (PARTICULARLY STIPS 11) INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Maybe your eye is just more trained than mine then haha.
The form/structure looks too ugly to be a TS. Maybe it could be a TD.
If you knew what I was talking about, you'd agree. It was a troll.
Just read back on the last blog. Hope you stick around 456
Yeah, it moreso has the looks of a TD than a TS.
Diplomacy is highly overrated. They ARE just morons. Back to my 7 year lurker status now. That is all.
I do not have a trained eye but do understand that even if the outside of a large area of disturbed weather can look ragged, the inner core can be consolidating...the outter area could actually be keeping dry air and wind sheer from affecting the center core....but that is by all means a very laimans point of view
For the second time in three days, you and I agree. ;-)
Here's my answer (posted in the previous blog):
Lurking becomes more and more painful with every passing Hurricane season.
Yeah. Although I voted I thought it would recurve, it obviously can't be a fish storm because of the people on those islands. There needs to be more talk about the effects on the islands IMO as that is more imminent.
Doesn't really matter if its in the closet or not " a rose by any other name is still a rose" case closed!
Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center...
So, the calls for the NHC to declare TD#5 are premature, aren't they?
There are probably a larger number members here who participate that live in the lower 48. It just seems that as a group, they are merely commenting on the unfolding scenerios as they develope.
When someone calls a storm a "fish", I just take it simply as meaning the continental USA is going to be spared. It does not have any more or less meaning than that.
If we called a storm an island bopping fish storm, would that make anyone feel better? If a storm were to miss all the islands, should I take umbridge because I was less fortunate?
A tropical cyclone is like a terminator. It has no feelings. It doesn't care.
I personally find weather interesting. Sometimes it's fun. Sometimes it's not.
No. It is likely that 91L has a low-level, well-defined, closed circulation somewhere in that convection. ASCAT and OSCAT from the other night confirmed this.
exactly how it should be, but it would be nice to find out from those in the Islands what is going on there, I know they are monitoring it, but that should be the focus
Also checking ships and buoy data to see what this system is doing now, along with satellite
Not talking about the models that flip flop every 5 secons and the POSSIBLE impact on the US
Agreed. These usually (almost always before Florida at least) do. It still bears watching though until two to three consecutive model runs show a recurve consensus.
Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.175N 45.998W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 30 Jul 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 74.8 F
Water Temperature: 81.3 F
For some, it's maybe just a narrow viewpoint that is given by experience: people have been hit so much that they only wanna know if it's coming their way. If it isn't, it's a sigh of relief and it stops there as opposed to then wondering who else it may impact.
Of course, a few are jingoists.
There are Americans on the islands, too. Puerto Rico and one half of the Virgin Islands. Tourists, businessmen, etc as well.
Beyond that, there's shipping as well as impacting on trade that ordinary Americans benefit from: banana trade, for example. Particularly in this globalised world we live in, everything is interconnected. Any impacts are passed on. Libya's a good example. The oil they produce is typically not used by the US, but it drives the price up when then impacts upon the price at the pump. That may well be by conflict, so it's a bit of a different scenario, but hurricane impacts work the same way, however small.
About as diplomatic as I can get it.
looking at those it looks like the gfdl path
Hoping you are wrong but watching closely here in Tortola
Lightning can be nightmare around here though in reality. Come to West Central Florida and you might just wet your pants from the lighting we can get here.
Structurally Don was not able to take advantage of the water temperatures. Combined which dry air intrusions, it was just too much for it.
Why would you even think about that? XD
The majority of the bloggers here are residents of the US. As such, their main concern is whether storms impact the CONUS. It is not that they feel non-US citizens are "not human," it is that they are concerned with whether a storm will land in their backyard, not upset shipping lanes to Nova Scotia. That is the primary reason why many visit here. So, while it may certainly be self-centered to dismiss a Hurricane that recurves away from the US as a "Fish Storm," it certainly doesn't warrant such a childish and venomous attack.
Hi, Did you get plenty rain in EE today? WE had one or 2 good squalls here in SS and a real hard rain.
Well, because Don was such a small tropical storm, it was already susceptible to large fluctuations in intensity. Add to the fact that Don was dealing with a lot of dry, stable air, and moderate wind shear, and the system pretty much had no chance.
This. Or if you want to throw numbers at them, you could say, "The combined population of the non-CONUS Atlantic Basin is ____. Besides that, there are thousands of shipping vessels and oil and gas platforms that could be diverted, delayed, damaged, or destroyed by so-called FISH storms. Yes, the risk to CONUS may be minimal, but the human risk to these populations and the financial risk to global companies with investments in the region -- not to mention global organizations like the IMF and the UN, which help pay for post-storm rebuilding -- should be a significant concern regardless of where you are."
Sadly, some people will only be swayed by dollar signs, and no humanitarian appeal will register.
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