Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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yes but it won't be there for long
I disagree- if the NHC were to lose the trust of the people they warn (or serve - since they are a government funded entity) we have "rated" them.
once we get 91L in too a name storm and then a then a hurricane the Admin starts banneding for any thing that dos not go with this blog like that youtub video
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban
It's happened more than once though. That's all people are saying: historical performance.
S FL now means carolinas next week
+100
As far as i am concerned i find Jason comments refreshing somtimes amusing however he does pst some very informative graphics as chiklet said, there i said my peace.
ok
I hope the Aussie's were watching that episode.....l.
My computer at work is limited to what I can do. Thanks
the wave in front of 91L looks like its going under a RI
And about the Islands. No one on any island is really going to care if its a tropical storm or nothing. Unless hurricane is in the name then it wont be on people's lips outside of the weather community. I'm also certain that it is in their newspaper and on there news. They can take care of themselves without NHC holding their hand. All the NHC does to the mass majority is tell them where, when, and how bad. So please calm down on this "NHC is doing a terrible job."
How do you have access to this experimental stuff??
Here is the current MJO...Upward phase across the Atlantic basin.
Looking at cimss850, it's obvious to see which circulation is dominant and very little low level turning with the associated wave. You can also make out the ITCZ in the image and easterlies associated with the ITCZ are noted in visible. Still attached however, looks to be pulling away ATM as easterlies are now running under 91L.
no Taz, it's not.
there is no RI going on anywhere.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 15:21Z
Date: July 31, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Wow, shocked to see you here!
Yes. I've never seen a crowd that hostile at a cricket match, particularly in England. Then, the delight erupting!
Full credit to Dhoni, wonderful sportsmanship. Should be considered cricketer of the year for that single decision. Other captains would not have done that.
Yes... the Aussies and that underarm bowl of 1981... (though I suspect every country has their unsportsmanlike moments).
---
Given the proximity to the islands and the JHR, this HH flight is going to be interesting than normal for an invest.
I agree. As everyone else has said, the National Hurricane Center is waiting for recon to confirm their thinking that this is a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Welcome back sir! What do you think of 91L's track/intensity?
Agreed.
There is nothing wrong with a little reassurance, right?
Jim Cantore..."Invest 91L (#Emily) still has a lot of "issues" before it becomes a self sustaining system. The longer this takes the less the impacts."
Jim Cantore..."My friends in the Windward Islands are very aware what is coming at them. Still expecting #Emily sometime soon. Impacts unavoidable."
Stop saying Emily Jim!!! You heard her!!!:-)
That does look like a possibility, imo they are to close to develop separately.
They are going to have recon confirm their thinking.
romper room ran them off
Well look who the cat drug in!!
Everyone has their theories. I suspect, personally, that the NHC isn't 100% certain. Given the proximity to the islands especially, they would not waste a moment to declare it a TD\TS if they had all the data confirming it. Now, if it had just tightened up enough within an hour or two, then perhaps they would wait. They wouldn't wait half a day if they were sure.
Just my 2 cents\pence.
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