Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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But you've kept flip-flopping on 91L all week long. Can you tell us why do you think it's going out to sea?
img src="
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcs t/archive/11073106/44.html#track">
Interesting to see the vorticity with 91L and the wave in front of it are one in the same.
i don't know why people even pay attention to him.
True, but if the winds are only something like 10kt but going in the right direction is still a closed circulation, we need to keep an eye on it, as it really would not take much.
it's pretty obviously a depression
If you go to my video today I highlight the steering currents. The steering with this system will be the battle between the Azores High to its North and the series of disturbances that will be trying to carve out a trough in the Western Atlantic.
This seems to be a constant with him, gets realllllly old.
What on earth is that, near the UK? Although we're in a heatwave (yours perhaps?) over here, that does not look good.
He says a little sentence or two and then nothing, no reason to back up his thinking. It's gotten to be really annoying.
saturated is an understatement.... parts of the island of dominica was declared a disaster zone on thursday when a 14year old lake\damn emptied out causing tens of millions in damages.. rain is very much unwanted
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 PM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 01/1600Z
D. 14.7N 57.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0505A CYCLONE
C. 01/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
More often in a classical Fujiwhara, the stronger storm drains the convection out of the weaker. And any spinning remnant of the weaker tends to follow the stronger storm toward landfall.
A strong hurricane leaves a trough in the atmosphere along the path it travels. If a leading hurricane and another TropicalCyclone are close, but not close enough to Fujiwhara, the second TC can fall into that trough... to either follow the first, or to have its own path strongly influenced by that lead hurricane, depending on the relative strengths of the 2 storms.
Looks like you guys might get the brunt.
Hebert's box ???
Precisely, its why I have him on ignore.
Thats a TCFA,,or Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
the nhc is wait for the HH too confrom that 91L is a TD or not
Is there a long range HWRF you are looking at because I dont see it even making it to florida..it only runs till the bahamas..
That "weak low level swirl" IS 91L. Everyone is mis-identifying the center of circulation. Just look at the surface clouds racing to the NE at 10.5 N, 55.5 W. That means the center can't possibly be east of there.
Yeah but passes through the Bahamas... where I live. =/
Ok - thanks for the clarifiction - didn't understand the visual - learning.
They are waiting for recon to go out and investigate the system.
the wave in front of 91l and 91l its self imo
Always willing to share here,,thats why the Blog is so Popular..
And all you Jason haters ,,most of you have mail
"I think 91L's tropical wave is running away from it, based on visible satellite imagery before sunset. The main low-level vortex being called the center by ACTF is to the east, coupled (or nearly so) with the mid-level circulation. A 2nd vortex is off to the WSW, attached to the southern end of the tropical wave. The two features are ...becoming dissociated, with the tropical wave racing off to the west faster than the circulation which is being left behind. The secondary vortex attached to the wave is getting dragged along for the ride. The reason for this forward speed difference may lie in the fact that the surface winds (indicated by blue arrows) are much faster to the north, and since the tropical wave extended much farther north than the center of circulation, it has been pushed out ahead of it. This meridional trade wind gradient illustrates the strong cyclonic vorticity in the area, but the tropical wave decoupling from 91L's main low center may stall development, as the whole system is now more of a mess"
Steering is complicated right now as all of the models are not in agreement to how the pattern is going to evolve, with some projecting a deeper trough off the ERN seaboard, with others showing ridging in control. This will probably impact several of the islands, and then stay on a more W-WNW track crossing just north of the island chain. Once it approaches the Bahamas is when the real uncertainty about steering comes in. There are basically two scenarios. A stronger ride would force it Westward somewhere into the SE US. While a stronger trough would cause it to re-curve. There is honestly no reliable way to tell at this point which solution wins out. Our forecasting beyond 72 hours is flimsy at best for the most part.
CMC is in a similar location as the HWRF, but it looks like a re-curve near land or a Carolina landfall.
I agree, if they wait any longer, we won't have to worry about having TD #5, because we will have Emily.
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