Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Major Upgrade
Cr@p.
Great... thx.
It seems to change a bit from year to year. One year - was it 08? - MJO basically coincided with all the storms.
From the forecasts, there's a weak MJO pulse around though (at least last I looked).
Mornin compatriota
This is great. Thanks for the info.
I don't think he ever reads the posts, or even reads DocMaster's blog, for that matter. Not to be mean, but he does seem to be in a "broadcast-only" mode, for the most part.
Hunter data will definitely tighten things up.
That's 1800Z which means they'll be in it 6 hours from now.
Yeah, I agree with you. I saw that too, trying to remember where though.
Well, you're screwed.
Next budget year, for the NOAA research planes.
Link
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
VALID 12Z THU AUG 04 2011 - 12Z SUN AUG 07 2011
USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/31 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/30 ECENS MEAN FOR THE
PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES THROUGH DAY 5...SWITCHING TO
SOLELY THE ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM ITS DISCONTINUITY OVER THE
EASTERN STATES TWO RUNS AGO...AND IS ROBUSTLY SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN...AS WELL AS THE 00Z/31 GEFS MEAN. THE
CURRENT GEFS MEAN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GIVING THE NEW BLOCKINESS
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE CREDIT THAT
THE OTHER GUIDANCES DOES...SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN. THE
00Z/31 GFS SHOWS GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DAY 3...WHICH PROPAGATES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
DAY 4. THE UKMET HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGLY OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL NOISY WITH SHORTWAVES.
CISCO
Well, either way we're both right in the middle of the action. What island are you on? I forgot
Analog years~ 2008
Cristobal Formation July 17th, Bret Formation July 17th
Dolly Formation July 20th, Cindy Formation July 20th
Don followed Dolly in his track to S. Padre...
Cape Verde season kicking off earlier likely...
Many small but noticable connections...
Of course I am.
Still to early to tell if it will fish N or go S. Some models even disintegrated it in the Carib and after the last few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised. It's best just to know it's there and go about the regular cane checklist we responsible cane folk should do ;) Though if it comes, it will be the first system I'll ride out in a hospital. Thank God for Android phones.
thanks very interesting!!
I find it humorous that chances are up to near 100% for 91L yet the population of models that develop the storm have decreased significantly on the SFWMD map. Can't wait for recon and moreso the G-IV flight for upper data. GFDL gets pretty stellar when upper data is included.
I am not sure,others can confirm,but I think that if a system reach 55 longitude and is still below 15 latitude, then the system has a greater chance of affecting the CONUS or something like that.
There's a presentation of analog tracks here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/
Ana (1979), Chantal (2001), Doria (1971), Iris (1995), Dorothy (1970) are the top five from that list.
EDIT: Ana, Chantal and Dorothy ended up in the caribbean whereas the other two recurved to various degrees.
invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren
At 11 AM or 5 PM
Well who knew we'd blow 2005 out of the water. Things are quite literally heating up, and soon we'll be drenched.
Man that makes me mad. $12 million in cuts would really hurt the hurricane hunter program, but it's just a tiny speck on the budget. To be fair I don't think $12 million would even show up on the radar.
How about we pick a couple of weeks and drop 10 fewer bombs a day in the mountains of Afghanistan - there's your $12 million.
That's nuts beyond the normal level of Washington crazy.
Thanks! I have another question, how much can this data really effect the forcast path and intensity forcast for the storm?
Yup, we all are going to have to "eat our peas"
Yikes, ships keeps 91L low and heading WNW towards the peninsula if I am reading that right?
I thought it was if a system hasn't developed by a certain longitude, then it has to go quite a ways further west for development. Like there's a dead zone out there in the western carrib. I might be getting this confused with the H-boxes, though.
That is the NHC forecast
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