Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Top right corner of the page it says mail- go to the compose tab and your all set
Thank you, Frank. Said it before I could.
Gfs is the most optimistic and does appear at 180 hr to be a fish, but the rest?
EP, 05, 2011073106, , BEST, 0, 106N, 998W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 0, 106N, 998W, 30, 0, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 12, 114N, 1006W, 34, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 16, 1, 0, 16,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 24, 122N, 1016W, 41, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 26, 14, 0, 26,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 36, 130N, 1030W, 46, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 35, 28, 0, 35,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 48, 138N, 1046W, 50, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 36, 29, 0, 36,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 48, 138N, 1046W, 50, 0, DB, 50, NEQ, 29, 0, 0, 29,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 60, 146N, 1061W, 53, 0, , 34, NEQ, 36, 29, 0, 36,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 60, 146N, 1061W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 0, 0, 29,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 72, 152N, 1075W, 55, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 36, 29, 0, 36,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 72, 152N, 1075W, 55, 0, DB, 50, NEQ, 29, 0, 0, 29,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 84, 157N, 1088W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 96, 163N, 1103W, 56, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 108, 169N, 1120W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073106, 03, OFCI, 120, 175N, 1139W, 44, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Do not forget that the GFS is notorious for overplaying troughs. It significantly overplayed the one that was intended to recurve Don.
Granted, I still find it likely 91L recurves, but we can't be certain of this, as you yourself just said.
Well, 90% of the models seem to take it out to sea, and they were very accurate last season with their recurve forecasts.
But, 91L keeps moving west. You'd have thought there would be a discernible northwards component by now.
To be fair, everyone said the same thing about Igor, and he ended up recurving anyway.
Copy&paste 10.1n44.6w, 11.2n45.5w-12.1n46.5w, 12.1n46.5w-12.7n48.2w, 12.7n48.2w-12.8n49.8w, 12.8n49.8w-12.9n51.2w, bqn, bgi, svd, 12.8n49.8w-13.33n59.62w, 12.8n49.8w-13.39n61.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12amGMT then 6pmGMT,
91L was headed toward skimming over northernmost Barbados ~33hours20minutes from now,
then over northernmost St.Vincent ~40hours from now.
WTPZ45 KNHC 310838
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PERHAPS A LITTLE
EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH
T2.0...AND THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
EXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM.
SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
COLDER WATER.
SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
SOMEWHAT RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/8. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN WELL OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER-MOVING ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTPZ35 KNHC 310837
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 100.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Link
Of course, this is but an experimental forecast graphic, but it looks like Emily will hit PR as a TS....
Very weak line of thunderstorms pushing NW over San Diego region. These thunderstorms were building up today over the mountains a bit as the ridge over the US built west a bit pushing the monsoonal flow west as well. Didn't get much of any rainfall or thunder here but still cool to see rain coming from the East as a result of thunderstorms cuz there so freakn rare over here
Anyways, I was fixing to post the same thing. Should this trend continue, there really isn't anything in the way that should inhibit 91L from becoming a tropical depression.
WED-NEXT WEEKEND...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SHOWN
LIFTING/FILLING THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
DEPICTED OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AS IT BECOMES A PLAYER IN STEERING POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 70-75W...BUT MUCH CAN CHANGE SO FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST.
Lol...I could if I tried to, but I just got done playing NCAA Football 12. Wanted to check back in for a few minutes. StormChaser got me excited with that renumber post. Something tells me he did it on purpose to fool sleepy eyes like mine. LOL.
Here's why
Guess those islands it hits first do not count?
really sad
The GFS suggests some of these waves will possess well-defined low to mid-level vorticity signatures. I imagine we'll see Franklin before too long.
He never said that.
The synoptic pattern is definitely still up in the air. Most likely it will recurve, but there's always some uncertainty in these sorts of things.
I also note that we are one step closer to TS Eugene in the EPac...
Maybe in 72hrs. Why are you so surprised?
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