Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 — Blog Index
Lol didn't expect a comment on that one anymore been a few pages lol.
Also does anyone know how accurate the sheer maps are on CIMSS because they are showing 30+KT sheer on the north side of 91L and increasing, which in my eyes would be more of a problem for the formation of a tropical cyclone in the next 48hr. I don't mean to say that anyone at NHC has no idea what they are talking about, I just feel like I'm missing something.
Wow, thank God. Lol. It was driving me nuts because I've been hunting the center on shortwave satellite imagery, trying to rule out what I thought was mid-level. I finally found what I thought was the center and with the coordinates you gave me, I was right. It's not at those coordinates anymore, just slightly west of there. I think it's still about 12.8N, but right about on top of 50W.
If that's the case, then 91L is better organized than it appears just off infrared.
Naturally. LOL.
if I had a dollar for every time somebody writes off a storm on here...
IDK, maybe the Anti Cyclone
Unfortunately.
Seems like we never have any reports from where a possible west wind would be coming from at the time.
Using straightline projection through ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT,
91L was headed toward a crossing directly over Barbados in ~30hours from now.
Copy&paste 9.4n43.6w, 10.1n44.6w-11.2n45.5w, 11.2n45.5w-12.1n46.5w, 12.1n46.5w-12.7n48.2w, 12.7n48.2w-12.8n49.8w, bqn, bgi, 12.7n48.2w-13.2n59.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Take a look at it on the Central Atlantic loop
Remember, those maps are in 3hr increments.
If my eyes aren't deceiving me, which they could be at this time of night, 91L is still on that westerly course. I'd put the center at 12.8N 50.0W
ASCAT also seems to not have picked any westerlies on its last pass, but it was a little off.
While it still looks a little messy, it does help to view it from afar, too many details getting in the way otherwise. The Atlantic Wide View also works pretty well, especially with water vapor.
Either way its having issues with convection and outflow on the north quadrant due to subsidence and dry air to the north as a result of upper level convergence
That might explain why the convergence CIMSS reports is so poor right now.
You can't even say that because north of the reported center you have an ULL and the anti-cyclone is well to the south.
EDIT: As of 3hrs ago at least.
I don't like that one either, its general track is too far to the west for my comfort.
That is not good at all!! I hope this system curves out to sea without affecting anybody, the way the economy is especially here in Florida, we don't need this
It's interesting when you consider how it gets data from the GFS.
Pandemonium.
So is Upper Convergence:
But sheer is still high to the north.
Also seems as if dry air is less of a problem this morning than it was yesterday.
Is that a second system on its heels?
outlier?
And somewhere in Miami a guy is firing some fireworks in celebration. :P
Yeah, that's what i was wondering too.
Its a pretty drastic outlier from the consensus. In my opinion, its extremely unlikely.
Would be amazing if things did shift towards that though...
No, its the HWRF.
Ok
06z position is up so go ahead and post it. :)
I disagree. The latest NOGAPS takes the system through the Northern Caribbean riding into Cuba and up through Florida like Charley of '04. The latest HWRF shows a sharp turn out to sea, much sharper than any model so far.
In my opinion, the NOGAPS and HWRF are the outliers with the GFDL between the two representing what I believe to be a reasonable scenario.
06z ATCF best track:
AL, 91, 2011073106, , BEST, 0, 129N, 512W, 30, 1008, LO,
He was banned indefinitely.
AL, 91, 2011073106, , BEST, 0, 129N, 512W, 30, 1008, LO
Be nice, I'm only repeating what I was told by a meteorologist friend of mine.
;)
Anyway, night all!
Well, it's a little further west than I thought. Had the latitude right though.
LOL..I wasn't being a smarta**. The GFDL actually does get info from the GFS.
Dang, seriously? How if you don't mind me asking. Did he go on some crazy rant or what because he was always really respected last year (up until the end of summer before I got too busy with college to get on the blog)
The NOGAPS/HWRF/GFDL...
Can't even recall the last time the NOGAPS has been right. Between the HWRF's poleward bias and the GFDL's many undiscernible issues, that's a pretty horrific choice of models.
Hahahaha! :D
With that, gnight!
Viewing: 1651 - 1701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 — Blog Index