Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yeah I made an update on my blog today, probably going to be doing and update every 12 hours starting 10am tomorrow. By the way, is it usually this dry during July? Because when I came back from Europe, I was expecting storms like... daily.
Love the Katy jokes on that blog.
Don't get offended by the word "fish storm". Just pretend it's not an offensive word.
I could not tell you if it is a TD yet but as I have mentioned here recently; I know it when I see it (that expanding "blossom" look that the circulation is starting to take on). You can also see the moderate sheer affecting it in the Northern quadrant on the loops. Doing very well in spite of that however.
Link
But coming into a better agreement. Seems like the NE Antilles and Puerto Rico are right in the Bullseye for this thing. I don't get how the GFDL has it plowing through Hispaniola and not weakening that much...
Yeah if I could. But I have family in the islands. So it is offensive when there is about 100% chance the the storm in question will effect someone. Possibly even my family in the U.S.V.I.
Can you WUmail me how to make the text color change?
already annouced they are going in tomorrow afternoon.
thanks...
The model hasn't been updated since 1492.
Just wait for it to be named. The models will come into a better agreement then. It won't take that long since it looks pretty good now.
Hey Keep, that looks like recurve to me. Coming from a non-professional of course.
Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=20 11073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=A nimation
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.
B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM
DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
Yeah we are definitely in a drought. Hopefully with this potential trough split and Emily knocking on our doorstep will bring some rain, but hopefully no damage :/ . Lol...
Just looked at the new model runs, already shifting a little west again. Could not be good. I got my eyes locked onto this thing 24/7 now.
I prefer the ultra-alternate spelling "photi", myself.
Don is dust now.
30/1745 UTC 12.8N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 91L
No changes but moving west.
Is the season still a bust??
Definitely.
How are things going down there in PR, do people know about 91L and are they preparing?
LMAO
Nice observation AndyWeatherFSU that does seem unusal
has to be seeing it over water in that area.
Lol?
Whats your location
30/2345 UTC 10.4N 98.5W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific
wish means we could see TD 5 E at any time
LOL, Texas ain't that green.
1492? I guess Columbus used it to avoid storms when he was crossing the Atlantic...
:P
Link
I really don't know. But the news constantly says to watch the situation, so I know the island must be aware. Also, it rains every frigging day.
You should be totally offended.
Meanwhile, here's wimpy ol' 91L:
30/2345 UTC 12.6N 48.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic
I don't really understand why satellite estimates on 91L have always been so low.
Before anyone yells at me for calling 91L wimpy, I was just joking :x
Another interesting point; I don't remember this active of a season in both basins at the same time. Regardless of the timing of waves in the Atlantic, the ITCZ has been extremely active over the past two months.
In watch mode! Most of the people left the preparations for the last moment.
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