Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
Is soon to be Emily possibly looking for '79's David

Tiger bait Tiger bait Tiger bait. can't wait for September my friend. sorry for the off topic but had to do it lol.

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
Good morning, was trying post pictures of Recon but can't get it done, Recon is nowhere where west winds should be found yet! :

Definitely going to skip TD and going straight to Emily.

Even though this will take a run at the east coast, it may as well head northeast and out to sea. Hopefully we get lucky and doesn't rev up to a hurricane.

If 91L CANT devlop a closed low before it reach the Eastern carrb think this track west and wont have another shot to devlop until reach the westrn carrb probaly be similar to Don

The current trends regarding the track of what will be Emily, includes a lot of land interaction again. While I am expecting it to be better organized than Don, there will still be enough rough terrain for the storm to contend with to keep it from any RI. I don't see this as being more than a Cat 1 at worst.

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest91
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting AllStar17:


Recon. has reported several 35 knot winds according to Google Earth.

I am looking at this 12 Z!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL912011

Interesting the BAMS on the 12z run has shifted to the west side of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Good morning folks.

First post in over a week due to travel.

91L has been tracking more to the West recently and is embedded in the low level flow which is zonal East to West. Earlier model runs that took the system off to the WNW assumed a stronger system by now which would work around the Western periphery of the strong high pressure centered well off to the NE in the Atlantic. Because development of 91L has been delayed due to poor organization it is now likely to penetrate deeper into the Caribbean before swinging out to the WNW.

I expect the models to shift to the West some more in the next few runs. As usual it is all a question of timing and rate of development.

Will post more later.

Quoting Chucktown:
The current trends regarding the track of what will be Emily, includes a lot of land interaction again. While I am expecting it to be better organized than Don, there will still be enough rough terrain for the storm to contend with to keep it from any RI. I don't see this as being more than a Cat 1 at worst.

dude....what's with the buzzkill?? ;)

Quoting wxhatt:
Even though this will take a run at the east coast, it may as well head northeast and out to sea. Hopefully we get lucky and doesn't rev up to a hurricane.

I would love to have a moderate to week TS here in St. Aug. We REALLY need the rain!

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
maybe invest91L going in the Gulf of Mexico

I think so. JMO.

I agree the center is to the west and exposed. Pretty hefty westerly shear present.

Quoting wxhatt:
Even though this will take a run at the east coast, it may as well head northeast and out to sea. Hopefully we get lucky and doesn't rev up to a hurricane.

GFS showing *that* and we aren't already melting down here?

Quoting FLdewey:
I guess just to be prepared I'll have to spray my shutters for spiders tonight. No need to deal with spiders AND hurricane shutters at the same time.

LOL...good point. My hurricane shutters have never been moved from their little corner of the garage. I may have a gecko colony in there for all I know.

Many Tropical Waves have winds near TS strength.. the issues to make these Tropical Storms or Depressions is for these to have a full Circulation. Recon goes in to find W or NW winds into a area of low pressure.

Currently there is no west wind reported by recon or on Sat...... This may take another 24hrs and have to wait till it gets past the islands... weaker systems will stay more south. I still expect this to hit Hispaniola or go just West of there near eastern cuba

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
maybe invest91L going in the Gulf of Mexico

Never know, if it stays weak it should keep taking the southern route thru the Carribbean

Quoting BobinTampa:



dude....what's with the buzzkill?? ;)

Just calls them as I sees them...

Quoting BobinTampa:
didn't get a chance to post this weekend but, damn, it was fascinating watching the satellite loop of Don 'hitting' Texas. It was like he got sucked into a black hole or something. Don't mess with Texas, I guess.

Really looking forward to the blog panic in coming days for 91L. There should be some way we can get automated text updates to DOOMCON level changes.

Pretty bad drought to eat a tropical cyclone.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning folks.

First post in over a week due to travel.

91L has been tracking more to the West recently and is embedded in the low level flow which is zonal East to West. Earlier model runs that took the system off to the WNW assumed a stronger system by now which would work around the Western periphery of the strong high pressure centered well off to the NE in the Atlantic. Because development of 91L has been delayed due to poor organization it is now likely to penetrate deeper into the Caribbean before swinging out to the WNW.

I expect the models to shift to the West some more in the next few runs. As usual it is all a question of timing and rate of development.

Will post more later.

Good morning Kman,

Good to see you back.

Quoting scottsvb:
Many Tropical Waves have winds near TS strength.. the issues to make these Tropical Storms or Depressions is for these to have a full Circulation. Recon goes in to find W or NW winds into a area of low pressure.

Currently there is no west wind reported by recon or on Sat...... This may take another 24hrs and have to wait till it gets past the islands... weaker systems will stay more south. I still expect this to hit Hispaniola or go just West of there near eastern cuba

Then no upgrade now.

Seems to have wrapped up this morning and compact itself vs the previous days for sure

Quoting angiest:


GFS showing *that* and we aren't already melting down here?

If there will be any meltdown it is when the NHC classifies this a TS then the blog will go ballistic.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/nor thatlantic/track_late1.png

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning folks.

First post in over a week due to travel.

91L has been tracking more to the West recently and is embedded in the low level flow which is zonal East to West. Earlier model runs that took the system off to the WNW assumed a stronger system by now which would work around the Western periphery of the strong high pressure centered well off to the NE in the Atlantic. Because development of 91L has been delayed due to poor organization it is now likely to penetrate deeper into the Caribbean before swinging out to the WNW.

I expect the models to shift to the West some more in the next few runs. As usual it is all a question of timing and rate of development.

Will post more later.

Thanks, glad you are back with your thoughts on this system.

Quoting FLdewey:
I guess just to be prepared I'll have to spray my shutters for spiders tonight. No need to deal with spiders AND hurricane shutters at the same time.

You are a funny man!!!
Hubby cleaned out our accordian shutters a few months ago to make sure they are ready to go if we need them.. and to get all the spiders out of there! along with the frog & lizard crap!

Quoting FLdewey:


Hey a Gecko family I can deal with... snakes aren't my favorite but sure no problem. However when I'm walking around with razor sharp aluminum in my hands the last thing I need is a spider hanging in my face.

Stupid spiders.

I should have married a sugar momma... gotten me some of those fancy pants electric roll down shutters.

LOL...good point. And as long as those spiders have likely gone undisturbed, they could be pretty big...maybe even glowing in the dark depending on what they've eaten.

good morning my friends... nice to see everyone here tracking this system that has surprised us all by staying undeveloped and moving west instead of wnw...

and those models are getting way to close to Florida...
but still early, those models will probably swing back and forth many times in the next few days.


Will be back later to check in and see what is going on here.

I see 91L's east center has finally dominated, but its problem is strong wind shear just to the north of 91L.

Quoting 7544:
the gfs is really spooky the way it shows 91L over the whole fl state

if it goes that way as strong as depicted well

Quoting SLU:
6342. gwadaman 12:39 PM GMT on August 01, 2011

Yes it seems to be heading more westwards and that wnw motion has so far failed to materialise. It's getting better defined and a tropical cyclone could still form east of us. Even if it doesn't develop 30 - 40mph winds in squalls could still affect from St. Lucia northwards.

Thanks, just as I thought...looking at things from here in Barbados, I personally feel that we will get a brush from the SE side where the convection is more favourable and feeding from the trough and Until 91L pulls herself together its a more westerly track......models should shift more south of Dominica but hey, jus my opinion.

Presently it is raining on South side where i'm located.

So..... its still a wait and see......
(women have always been misterious)LOL

Quoting IKE:

Then no upgrade now.

downcaster!


How ya doing Ike? Good to see you back for a cameo.

sw winds found ??

I cant see 91L turning TD or EMILY until it reach westrn carrb think system will stay weak move west south hispanola when get in westrn carrb think might devlop cant see weak system like this move WNW OR NW out of the carrb

Quoting DookiePBC:


LOL...good point. And as long as those spiders have likely gone undisturbed, they could be pretty big...maybe even glowing in the dark depending on what they've eaten.

dewey get the wife to spray the shutters

Quoting Chucktown:
The current trends regarding the track of what will be Emily, includes a lot of land interaction again. While I am expecting it to be better organized than Don, there will still be enough rough terrain for the storm to contend with to keep it from any RI. I don't see this as being more than a Cat 1 at worst.

I hope you are right... Especially with the change in the Models this morning. I am not over anxious as there is plenty of time for them to shift back and forth.

Hmmm... still no vortfix as yet, I see....

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning folks.

First post in over a week due to travel.

91L has been tracking more to the West recently and is embedded in the low level flow which is zonal East to West. Earlier model runs that took the system off to the WNW assumed a stronger system by now which would work around the Western periphery of the strong high pressure centered well off to the NE in the Atlantic. Because development of 91L has been delayed due to poor organization it is now likely to penetrate deeper into the Caribbean before swinging out to the WNW.

I expect the models to shift to the West some more in the next few runs. As usual it is all a question of timing and rate of development.

Will post more later.

Welcome back Kman...........great post as always! I have to agree with you.

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
wind shear 30 knots!

20 over the center, 30 just N. Studying visible this morning, the storm is really not that impressive. However, a single entity now as you stated.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... still no vortfix as yet, I see....

Vortix...Starting to think this may never develope as was suggested by the european model.