Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Sorry for the OT comment, all.
You are quite right.
Tampa do you think the models will continue to shift west?
putative maybe not for much longer!
91L hasn't dissipated; it has consolidated.
Noticed one of your Mets is doing a rotation at the HPC International Desk.
Getting very worried of this track into the Caribbean and what the Dominican Rep. might be getting.......
GFS isn't exactly doing the whole recurve thing anymore. Has it straight over Florida.
YES i do.......don't look at only one model....Go to my site and look at what all the models i have up and tell me what the Concensus shows........it shows a blocking High as a big picture...LOok at the NOGAPS, the EURO, WRF.....I just don't like what they are showing.
and cmc.
It's good that the HH's went out so early this morning.
I agree. Does anyone have anymore information from the HH's?
Based on the pattern is flying... I would expect a SW flow soon (assuming we have a closed circulation).
Yes I know and that is why I asked. I love your site..it is so informative. Thanks. have a great trip!
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20110801
111100 1409N 05802W 9770 00293 0101 +236 +202 112008 008 014 001 00
111130 1408N 05801W 9768 00294 0102 +236 +203 108009 009 014 000 00
111200 1408N 05800W 9773 00291 0102 +235 +203 106009 010 013 000 00
111230 1407N 05758W 9770 00293 0102 +237 +203 107009 010 015 001 03
111300 1406N 05757W 9769 00294 0103 +235 +203 108010 010 015 000 00
111330 1405N 05756W 9772 00293 0102 +236 +204 113011 011 017 000 00
111400 1404N 05755W 9772 00291 0103 +235 +204 112011 011 017 000 00
111430 1404N 05753W 9771 00293 0103 +235 +204 114011 011 016 000 00
111500 1403N 05752W 9768 00296 0103 +235 +204 114011 012 017 000 03
111530 1402N 05751W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +204 113012 013 018 000 03
111600 1401N 05750W 9773 00290 0103 +235 +205 112012 013 017 000 03
111630 1400N 05748W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +205 120012 012 016 000 00
111700 1359N 05747W 9757 00306 0104 +235 +205 134012 013 017 000 03
111730 1358N 05746W 9765 00302 0108 +235 +206 141012 012 017 000 00
111800 1357N 05744W 9774 00295 0109 +235 +207 143011 012 016 000 00
111830 1356N 05743W 9766 00302 0109 +235 +209 139010 011 014 000 00
111900 1356N 05741W 9772 00297 0108 +235 +210 138010 011 013 000 00
111930 1355N 05739W 9770 00298 0108 +235 +212 139010 010 013 000 03
112000 1354N 05738W 9773 00295 0108 +237 +213 140010 011 014 000 00
112030 1353N 05736W 9769 00300 0108 +238 +214 138009 010 016 000 03
Hmm. a couple of the intensity models explode soon to be Emily to a dangerous Cat. 4 in a few days!
Link
God speed......
From the Lone Star State!
IMO, I believe that 91L is now a depression. Looking at the steering layers, it is more likely that this system will take a more westerly track towards the NW Caribbean,or Florida Straits.
Not impressed by recon thus far.
JUst said the same above......Yes you are correct....need to see that trend to the EAST soon tho for a shift to avoid the ConUs! Don't me to sound like i care about just the ConUs as someone is gonna get a bad system from this. NOT GOOD!
From this:
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT ORGANIZES...THIS SYSTEM MIGHT END UP
ESTABLISHING A MOIST INFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ. THE
MOIST FLUX COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...IF NOT LONGER. SO WE
COULD BE FACING 48-60 HRS OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THIS IS GOING TO
BE HEAVY RAINS OVER AN AREA THAT IS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
EVENTS. IT IS NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE LARGE SCALE
FLOODING.
91L indeed is going to be feed by moisture from the south:
And BTW Good morning!
There is a HH graphic on the tropical page on WU ground but not sure how often that updates. People follow it on links from Google Earth, too and also NHC has info in its page.
It's a traveling work day for me so better get a move on. Will have lap top though and so I can see what's going on!
give them time
I would go with 100% by next TWO with a possibility of TD by 2PM and TS by 8PM... given current trends.
in the last loop of the IR all most look like eye is starting to pop out in the last loop
wil you stop makeing new names too get a round are Ignore
Yet to be named, Emily will be with us for a while.
A little early to be calling your shot; how far out are we?
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