Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yeah, but you know how people are, always seeking someone to blame. If the NHC errs of the side of caution and throws up some watches and warnings, everyone will accuse them of expensively crying wolf should the storm not be as bad as it could be. They really can't win...
Good morning, aqua, and everyone else. A likely hurricane on our doorstep, and the hottest week yet of a ridiculously hot year. It's gonna be interesting...
You think?
Lol. Let's hope that doesn't verify. GFDL doing something similar intensity wise but well east of Florida.
This is true, however as far as I am aware the NHC consult the governments to advise them on whether a tropical storm/hurricane is likely.
Indeed.
The large decrease in size may potentially allow 91L to spin up more quickly, unfortunately for the islands. Going to be interested to see what the HH finds. IMO, they'll find a closed, if slightly elongated circulation, and we'll probably get TD5 at 11am EDT.
Well, the day off means I can sit and watch this system as much as I want, which is cool...
The overnight track model guidance have shifted to the west in their forecast for Emily and now seem to all favor a track that takes it south of Puerto Rico and right across the island of Hispaniola on Wednesday night. I expect Emily to be a hurricane by Wednesday and be tracking into an area of weakness in the ridge of high pressure and thus be turned much more to the northwest during the day Wednesday. This would take Emily potentially right across Hispaniola, however, further shifts to the west are possible given the model trends over the past 12 to 24 hours and this idea of a track right across Hispaniola is not etched in stone.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 10:21Z
Date: August 1, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 08
My point being that, not just on Wunderground but all across the tropics, the NHC can do nothing right. If they don't classify a system quickly enough for everyone, they're accused of putting lives in danger by delaying. And if they classify too early and that system fails to develop as anticipated, they're accused of unnecessarily jumping the gun, crying wolf, and so on. I heard an NHC met say some years ago that systems such as 91L that ride the line between classifiable/unclassifiable for a long time drive them nuts; they would much rather have to deal with a system that spools up rapidly and sticks to a clear track.
Twin Cam, haha. Yeah, this thing is way pecualiar, pulled its frontal lobe back in overnight.
Barbados has its 'Kaddooment' Carnival today, revellers will have a fun time along the streets in the rain, unfortunately the food market people at the main ending of the carnval 'Spring Gsrden Highway' on the coast, will not sell as much if it rains heavy, but if it holds until tonight, or stays far enough above and to the North of the island, we should be okay.
I think the simple fact is that a lot of people want to come across as being better than and outwitting the NHC, so as soon as they do something, a selection of people will criticise it to try to appear knowledgeable.
Having lost nearly all access to WU from work, I'll be in the dark figuratively for most of the day.
Hopefully I won't be in the dark literally, a week from now.
size doesn't matter, heh heh heh
The yellow one on the far left towards the GOMEX definitely has it right. The XTRP is proving to be very reliable recently....
Lol.
Large disturbances will definitely take longer to organize as they have to dominate the flow of large areas. If they encounter any competition then it makes it harder to get going, but as you can see if they can consolidate further and become smaller then is less work that they have to do and less frictional forces to deal with along with that too.
Even with tricky systems they have done well.
On occasions some surprises may come, but what does anyone expect, it is the weather, they are experts, but not God.
Remember, I think it was Wilma or one of theose, who barrelled through 20knots of windshear and was still a Cat 3 at the end of it?
Cant remember of they called that right, but who would have thought that possible?
These things happen.
850MB VORT:
700MB VORT:
500MB VORT:
Lesser Antilles are very used to vigorous T-waves, after all.
I shouldn't think a TS watch\warning for a minimal TS is going to change that too much. It doesn't have much room to get stronger than that right now, even though it looks quite compact currently.
Of course, the HHs could find something a bit stronger than anticipated, happened plenty of times before.
Looks like closed to me. 15N 56W.
Link
And closer to Florida, AGAIN. GFS keeps doing the same thing, only a little farther west each time.
I'm not sure they'll fancy another go at 100% after what happened yesterday, lol.
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