Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Convection will refire overnight, that's pretty much a given, and if not, then this system has issues and it's much more complicated than I know of.

Don is like a Marine he takes beating and keeps on kicking, he may not be the strongest marine though but he's still fighting. (If i offended marines in this comment i'm sorry no hurt intended)

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 22:46:36 N Lon : 88:03:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -15.9C Cloud Region Temp : -28.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.4 degrees

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
The coc is Certainly in this location.

thanks! what is that about 22n 88w? tia

Quoting tristanh72:


The small lakes here northwest of houston are almost all gone as well. That's the problem, there's no part of the state that doesn't need a good tropical storm. Just hope wherever it ends up gets just rain with a little bit of wind, and not a lot of wind with some rain.

With the huge cracks, would be concerned that if we had any wind, dead trees and light poles would just blow over

..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine

Quoting Patrap:
..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine

Semper Fi

Don Vito looks ill

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Semper Fi

Oooh-rah,

Quoting cloudburst2011:


isnt that the TIMEX

Is it, i knew it wasn't for the marines but i thought it fit anyway, but is that where the phrase came from?

Quoting Patrap:
..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine

OOOH RAAAH

USMC Silent Drill team

note they enter and exit the same way..

It's always good to add a little bit of military jargin into stuff it adds to the experience.

I've been watching this thing since it left the coast of Africa. A coworker and I watched it for a while, then on the 22nd, I announced to a gardening group here in Austin that I thought this storm was headed our way. The next day, wunderground gave it an Invest 90 designation, which then disappeared again when it hit the Caribbean. Although forces were wrestling to break it up, I think its shear size, in terms of precipitable moisture, made it able to resist those forces. At one point it seemed to be comparable in size to the Gulf of Mexico and heading west.

It was no surprise when it gained its Invest 90 designation again after passing most of the Caribbean islands, and then finally a named storm. Model strength has been under and over hurricane strength, depending on the time of the model runs. With the amount of moisture and the warmth of the gulf, I think it's very likely for it to gain hurricane strength, although I haven't studied inland wind patterns lately.

The main thing is we here in Central Texas really need the rain, so we'll take whatever this storm will be kind enough to drop on us (and not send over us to drop on folks north who don't need it).

Lately, models have been revised northward, and I actually see moisture heading northward still of what the models are showing. I really do hope, though, that the models are pretty accurate so it heads our way.

Thunderhead popping offshore away from center to the north, might be the beginning of the convection fire up later tonight, matter of time I assume

Patrap your right with that video, Don will become a well oiled and organized machine like the United States Marine Corp. Ooooh Raaahh!! Semper Fi!!!

Switching basins just for a second, in the Pacific tropical storm 11 will have to be watched closely.
(east of the Philippines)

P.S. take a look at 30 degrees west. There's another round of circulation that's reminiscent of what Don was doing a week ago.

T.C.F.W.
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
22.95N/88.23W


convective refire detected

91L coming soon. Don, imo, will end up around the TX/LA border.

Link

This is JMO.... Don will stay weak and be rain for LA. MS. Al.

KOTG, yea you see it

lil blotch north of Yucatan, it's towering

Seastep, don't say such things, we need the rain here in Texas, be hopeful, nah im just kidding wherever its heading its gonna head. Although we need the rain so badly. Time for the overused cliche' "Hope for the best (Don hits Texas and gives needed rain) but prepare for the worst (Don hits Mexico or TX/LA border and leaves TX dry).

Quoting P451:
As of now it looks like Don is going to go.....right where it needs to most.






Both maps 0z

I think the bulk of precipitation is going to be about a hundred miles or so north of where it's indicated. Draw a line from Austin to current COC, and take mirror image of what you have here, mirrored about that line. That's my prediction anyway.

This may be the start to the intensification of Don and i'm hopin' it starts. Does anyone know if the wind shear as of now has weakened any? and what about dry air?

Don is really struggling. Let's see how much the diurnal maximum helps it in a few hours...

Quoting Patrap:
USMC Silent Drill team

note they enter and exit the same way..

Pat thanks for that!

Awsome!

Thought I could handle a rifle, but, apparently, my skills are rudimentary at best.

what do you mean the tx/la border will be safe? Like no landfall near tx/la border or they will get a landfall?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don is really struggling. Let's see how much the diurnal maximum helps it in a few hours...

Does it look like Dons taking a turn towards the NW in the last few frames?

Quoting txraysfan:
With the huge cracks, would be concerned that if we had any wind, dead trees and light poles would just blow over

I've thought about that as well. Recall how many people lost power from Ike when it came through. It doesn't appear the power company ever came back through and fully repaired all of the patchwork they did to get things up and running as fast as they did. I'm afraid of what it will look like if a hurricane did come through. A simple thunderstorm we got a few weeks back took out quite a few trees.

Patrap, your really on it with the satellite, models, videos, and everything how do you do all that so fast? Do you have a ton of tabs open or something?

Naw,, I have a friend in Boca who helps me with a lotta stuff.

: )


Bookmarks mostly and wunderground Tropical Page too,..only 7 tabs currently.

Don really needs that recent pop NE of the center to continue to grow and expand over the center. Quite possible that happens though. The band to the east looks to be feeding in moisture and is flaring also.

If you watch Don on the precip. imagery, and look closely at his interaction on the west side, with that slot of dry(light green) air, you can actually see him choke on it this afternoon. He bumps up against it, and it appears to bounce off of the circulation, and then it shudders. Fascinating to watch if you look very closely.

However, as you'll also see in later frames, he's about to wall himself off from the dry air, as there's a large plume of moisture about to wrap around the core completely.

That's when I expect to see ignition tonight. DMAX will occur around the time that that surge of moist air encircles the core.

Quoting RitaEvac:
KOTG, yea you see it

yes air temp must be below water temp to get a tropical cyclones cycle going and what better time to get that then at night when its cooler thats when it starts to feed off the warm waters and thats what it is starting to do

Ike was a pain in the butt in the power perspective because we were out of power for like 2 to 3 weeks, and school had already started before we got power back which made life a pain.

Will he? Or Will he not? LOL
thanks to all the posters with the great maps. You guys just.. well, you rock.

Don needs to weigh anchor and getta move on with this next convective up-tick

The latest rainbow satellite imagery is starting to show increased convective (if thats a word) activity the rest of loop speaks for itself, Don is coming back. "Here's DONNY!!!!"

0zGFS shifted south, has landfall around Corpus.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
939 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011


Discussion...
bumped the winds and seas up a little for Thursday-Saturday in the
coastal waters to reflect tropical storm dons passage to our
south. Otherwise no updates expected this evening.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 416 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011/


Discussion...
weakness in the height field along the Gulf Coast...coupled with a
an axis of rich Gulf moisture characterized by a precipitable water of 2.5
inches per the morning klch radiosonde observation...is expected to result in
another active day for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Have
tilted the first 48 hours or so of the forecast heavily toward
persistence for both rain chances and temperatures. Beyond that
time...global models show relatively drier air filtering into the
region...along with increasing heights as an upper ridge builds
from the southeast Continental U.S. Toward the Central Plains.


This ridge...by the way...is expected to help steer ts Don toward the
Lower Texas coast...and block any further gains in latitude that would
bring greater impacts to our region. On the current forecast
track...effects over the northwest Gulf Coast region will be
minimal...and at this time limited generally to increasing winds
and seas over the coastal waters late Thursday through Friday.


Inherited forecast beyond the weekend left generally unchanged.

Yulp just like Keeper said,
Night time, warm waters and no land to mess with him...

re-firing for sure....

Taco :o)

I don't think Don should anchor up because it would allow the high to move further east and drag Don into Louisiana leaving us Texans for the dead, if Don continues slowly across the GOM i think he will intensify just fine for Texans.