June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.
June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.
While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.
Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.
The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If a La Nina develops this winter Atlantic SSTs will likely cool off, unless North America has another bizzare winter like 2010-2011. Multi-year La Ninas cool the entire tropics, and I think the Atlantic would see heat taken out of it before next season.
Do we know what is causing this to happen? It seems like it has become an almost permanent feature. I was thinking that with the waning of La Nina, the ridge would have lost its grip more. However, it seems like it will never go away! I'm beginning to believe that since Texas is so hot and dry that the surface conditions are making it much more difficult for the atmosphere to change its pattern.
The ground has a very low specific heat...there's no way it could ever "hold" the atmosphere in a semi-permanent pattern above it. That's not the issue. As for why the ridge has been there so long, I haven't yet researched it, so I can't really give an answer yet. This entire La Nina event has been abnormal in our part of the world.
Gotta get back to work. Later all.
La Nina...A strong one at that...
Interesting. In other words,I should be preparing for maybe some threats comming my way here in PR as all signs point to an active CV season.
yep yep levi will be one busy beee lol :)
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller? prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cy cle=07%2F11%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pna me=850_vort_ht&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+G UIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All
Looks good but land interaction will affect it,unless it pulls away from land.
Another factor allowing the ridge to hang around so long is that the ridge promotes warm dry conditions. Due to the dry conditions less incoming radiation from the sun is spent on heating up water in the ground and plants. This may seem like a small effect but due to the much higher specific heat capacity of water than both the air and land, it is an issue.
Dr. Masters mentioned this a few weeks ago
LOL. I guess technically "these data" is correct but it just sounds funny. I think I'll stick to "this data". Anyway, this lady suggests that both are acceptable. :^)
* * *
№ 238
Hmmm...That is interesting at that.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH BUT MAY GET
HUNG UP OVER AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN
BEHIND IT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN THROUGH INLAND
CAROLINAS BUT THE LATEST GFS MODEL SPINS UP A LOW ALONG THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CHANGE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST MAKING FOR MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW COULD ALSO DEEPEN AND PRODUCE MUCH GREATER CHANCES
OF PCP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD ALSO PRODUCE A PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA. OVERALL COULD
END UP WITH DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO AREA IN NE FLOW BEHIND
FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON TIMING AND
PROGRESSION AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALSO COULD BE A SCENARIO WHEREBY INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY
BUT COASTAL AREAS REMAIN WET AND CLOUDY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH BEST CHC OF PCP ON THURS AND DIMINISHING CHC HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
Response is here on Dr.Rood's blog. Easier than posting each comment twice and more on topic there, I would think.
Edited
Air temp 97....
Dewpoint 81....
Heat index 119!.....
101.7 F
Feels Like 104 F
Humidity 28%
Long range modeling is phooey nothing ever goes the way long range models predict,I think it might be onto something in the atmosphere and we may get the strongest wave of the season bu to reach S.Fl. by the 27 would have to form in the next 5 days is that the only model showing that scenario. If that pans out I will eat crow. I say no way we have anything stronger than a TS by the end of this month.
2-3 pages back I mentioned that I thought NOAA should have given it at least a 10% chance. This would be because I thought that a lot of the thunderstorms might go north and miss land. That appears to be happening.
You rather talk GW?
is wu like CNN or what?
Warm to Above Average Sea Surface Temps (Check)
Train of Tropical Waves off Africa (Check)
Rampant Computer "Hype" Model Storm Predictions (Check)
Yeah I would say we are coming up on the busy part of the season
ncstorm, which part of eastern NC you from? Our NWS are very conservative and for them to mention the model run makes me believe that this will be a factor in our weekend weather.
Excellent!!!
I have no clue what to think of this thing over the South East
Link
...gggrrrrr...
Great Graphic!
i no why not hit it on the head a few times with the bassball bat may be it will get vary mad and it will move out of the way LOL
It was plural, and therefore correct, the same as "the United States." You wouldn't expect someone to name all the states in the latter case, would you? ;)
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